Wednesday, December 17, 2008

Some Thoughts On Raul Ibanez

Now that the dust has settled a bit after the Phillies somewhat surprising acquisition of another left-handed bat in LF Raul Ibanez, we can step back from the ledge and look at this deal with a little bit more clarity. It's beginning to be clear that the Phillies simply weren't interested in bring back long-time Phillie Pat Burrell. As Burrell was apparently not an option, the list of acceptable LF options was quite slim. Out of the players available (Manny Ramirez, Adam Dunn, Raul Ibanez, Bobby Abreu, Ken Griffey Jr, Garret Anderson, Juan Rivera), Ibanez was definitely near the top of the list just after Manny. Raul has his downsides and they appear to be vast on paper. He's 36 going on 37, below average defensively and he doesn't hit leftys very well if you look at his career numbers. However, he hits for good average, hits over .300 for his career with runners in scoring position, crushes rightys and he has been very durable over the past several years. Defensively, switching from Burrell to Ibanez is a wash. Neither is gonna be lugging home a Gold Glove anytime soon. Ibanez hits for slightly less power but higher average than Pat and he's gonna strike out a bit less. With Utley, Howard, and Werth already in our lineup, Burrell's power won't be missed nearly as much as we all fear. Having a good, high-average bat in the middle of the lineup could actually dramatically increase our offensive performance. Think of it as switching from a V8 that tends to stall out every so often to a much more reliable V6 that chugs along day after day. Ibanez and his higher batting average could be just the thing our offense has been looking for. It all depends on where he bats in the lineup. I've had this discussion several times over the past week or so and I've thrown out all sorts of wacky lineups that manage to avoid the much feared Utley/Howard/Ibanez lefty trifecta at the heart of the lineup. As fun as it would be to do that, there are easy solutions that avoid it. We could use either of the following lineups:

SS Jimmy Rollins
RF Jayson Werth
2B Chase Utley
1B Ryan Howard
CF Shane Victorino
LF Raul Ibanez
3B Pedro Feliz
C Carlos Ruiz

OR

SS Jimmy Rollins
CF Shane Victorino
2B Chase Utley
1B Ryan Howard
RF Jayson Werth
LF Raul Ibanez
3B Pedro Feliz
C Carlos Ruiz

Both of the above lineups avoid the dreaded TRI-LOOGY scenario and both offer their advantages. Both Werth and Victorino had coming out parties in 2008 that proved conclusively that they are great complimentary players to have on a team. Both have very good speed and both are tough outs at the plate. Vic offers blazing speed and an ability to turn a single or a walk into a double with his legs. Vic led the team in batting average and showed good power numbers for a centerfielder. Granted he's not your prototypical # 5 hitter but he could serve as a plate setter for the bottom half of the lineup. Having him bat in front of Ibanez in the 6-hole could very well give Ibanez a ton of RBI opportunities. Putting Jayson Werth in the 5-hole is a more traditional approach. Werth has flashed some impressive power, particularly against left-handed pitching which he absolutely kills. He takes a lot of pitches, knows how to get on base and has gotten better every year he's been a regular. He has below-average power against right-handed pitching but he still gets on base at a very good clip because of his excellent pitch recognition (.360 OBP against rightys in 2008). Having Werth in the 5-hole allows Victorino to stay at the top of the lineup acting as a second leadoff guy behind SS Jimmy Rollins. Either way, its not as bad a situation as it appears to be at first glance.

Another thought to consider when looking at Ibanez's 3 year contract is the imminent arrival of some potentially very good right-handed bats to balance the lineup in 2010 and 2011. Hopefully, both Jason Donald and Lou Marson will be regulars at 3B and C respectively and will provide for a very balanced lineup from 1-8. Donald has gotten a good number of reps at 3B in the Arizona Fall League and he is almost certain to get a good amount of time at that position next year as they prep him to take over for Pedro Feliz at the hot corner. C Lou Marson shot up the prospect lists with another huge step forward in 2008. Marson doesn't show any real power at the plate but he possesses excellent strike-zone recognition and he get's on-base at a very impressive pace. Between the two of them, the Phillies will have less issues from the right side of the plate than most people think.

Other than the apparent lefty-heavy lineup, the greatest argument against the signing is his advanced age of 36 (37 in June 2009) and the length of his contract (signed through Age 39). Ibanez has been a very late bloomer and he has shown remarkable consistency throughout his mid-30's. So far, he hasn't shown any signs of decline. However, when a decline does come, it usually comes fast and we shouldn't be too surprised if Ibanez is ineffective or needs to be platooned for the final year of this deal. However, considering his contract is not too onerous at just over $10 million per year, it won't be worse or even comparable to the dead money invested in guys like Adam Eaton or Geoff Jenkins this upcoming season. It won't hamstring us too greatly from signing players that need to be signed or in locking up guys like Ryan Howard and Cole Hamels in long-term deals.

So, in closing, I will go out on a long, thin limb and boldly predict that Raul Ibanez will have a better 2009 and 2010 than Pat Burrell. I will gladly revisit this comment this time next year but I highly doubt I will be wrong. Personally, I think Raul Ibanez could very well be exactly what our lineup needs and I think all those that criticized this signing will look quite silly for the next couple seasons.

Tuesday, December 9, 2008

Dick Allen Snubbed Again

Dick Allen was never the most loved player, teammate or even human being. However, he was one of the premier power hitters of the 1960's and early 1970's. Dick Allen broke into the majors as the Phillies first African-American star (It took the Phillies 10 years to even have an African-American player on the roster, let alone a star like Allen) and faced a constant stream of racial bigotry in that role. The Phillies and Philadelphia were long known for their racial attitudes and Allen faced the brunt of it throughout the first part of his career. Allen debuted in September 1963, a mere 16 years after Jackie Robinson broke the color barrier with the Brooklyn Dodgers. Ken Burns wrote the following comment concerning Robinson's first appearance in Philadelphia, where Robinson received hundreds of death threats, unrelenting abuse from the crowd and constant racial epitaphs: On April 22, 1947, during a game between the Dodgers and Philadelphia Phillies, Phillies players called Jackie a "nigger" from their dugout and yelled that he should "go back to the cotton fields." Branch Rickey would later recall that Phillies manager Ben Chapman"did more than anybody to unite the Dodgers. When he poured out that string of unconscionable abuse, he solidified and united thirty men." So, with that history, it was no surpise that Dick Allen faced similar abuse as the Phillies first African American star. The saddest and most telling commentary on the racial issues of the Phillies of that time was that it took over 10 years between Jackie Robinson's debut and Phillies breaking their own self-imposed color barrier.

It was in this type of divisive atmosphere that Allen cut his teeth as a Major Leaguer. Dick Allen was born in raised in rural Pennsylvania in the 40's and 50's. To those that don't know, rural Pennsylvania is/was probably more racially divided than the Deep South. Considering that atmosphere, it is no surprise that Allen always had a certain defensiveness about him. It is no surprise that he was crucified in the press for his supposed bad attitude. To understand this phenomenon, merely look at the difference in treatment of Roger Clemens versus Barry Bonds. Sure, both are guilty as sin, but it took far longer for the public to nail Rocket to the cross than Bonds. Consider that background when looking at Allen's accomplishments on the field and his personal issues off it.

In an era dominated by pitching, Allen was a beast at the plate. His career numbers are some of the highest of any player not in the Hall of Fame. In over 14 seasons, he batted .292 with a .378 OBP and .534 SLG. Consider the fact that he posted a .912 OPS in an era dominated by guys like Bob Gibson, Sandy Koufax, and Steve Carlton. He managed to chip in 351 homeruns and knock in 1,152 runs along with a career OPS+ of 156 (good for 19th all-time). For reference, his OPS+ is the same as Willy Mays and better than guys like Joe DiMaggio, Manny Ramirez, and Frank Robinson.

Allen was the National League Rookie of the Year in 1964, American League Most Valuable Player in 1972 and a seven-time All-Star. Despite all of his prodigious talent and accomplishments on the field, Allen was made a scapegoat off the field. Allen was blamed for the Phillies famous collapse in September 1964 despite hitting a brisk .438 in the team's final 12 games. Allen was considered a trouble maker and was often overshadowed by his supposed personality issues. Despite these accusations, his managers considered him an excellent teammate and a clubhouse leader. Chuck Tanner, his manager on the White Sox made the following telling statement about Allen, "Dick was the leader of our team, the captain, the manager on the field. He took care of the young kids, took them under his wing. And he played every game as if it was his last day on earth."

Looking back with the clarity and distance of nearly 40 years, it is far easier to admire Dick Allen's amazing accomplishments with the bat in a pitcher-dominated era and ignore his personal faults. By the numbers, Dick Allen deserves to be in the Hall of Fame and maybe one day he will make it in by the grace of God and the Veterans Committee.

Sunday, December 7, 2008

Tips Cap


Greg Maddux is going to make it official tomorrow. After 23 seasons, he will announce his retirement at a low-key press conference. Phillies fans can be proud that his career numbers against Philadelphia are a good deal worse than his career line. He went 29-20 (.592 W/L %) with a 3.47 ERA in over 400 IP versus Philly. Granted those are pretty good numbers but considering his career line (below), that's not half bad. Either way, its been a pleasure watching you do your thing Greg and good luck with whatever you end up doing after your playing career.



Here's his final career line:

740 GS, 355 W, 227 L, .610 WL%, 5008 IP, 4726 H, 1981 R, 1756 ER, 999 BB, 3371 SO, 3.16 ERA, 132 ERA+, 1.143 WHIP

Congrats Greg. You've had a hell of a career.

Thursday, December 4, 2008

That's Lowetastic?

Feel that warmth? That's the hot stove finally kicking on after a long cold month of nothingness. The Phillies are rumored to have made a respectable contract offer to Type A free agent pitcher Derek Lowe. The Phillies have long coveted Derek Lowe and his extreme sinking fastball having previously made a run at signing him after the 2004 season. Lowe has been the definition of consistency since signing with the Dodgers before the 2005 season averaging 34 starts a season in his four years there. Going back to his Boston days, Lowe has started no fewer than 32 games and pitched no less than 182 innings in his past seven seasons. Lowe would be a perfect #2 pitcher behind Ace Cole Hamels and would transform an already good Phillies staff. He would also mean the end of Jamie Moyer's tenure in Philadelphia. Moyer leaving might not be the worst thing in the world considering his age and probable cost next year in his Age 46 season. Lowe will be a youthful 36 next year and still in his prime.

As the offseason started, Lowe was rumored to be looking for a 5 year deal averaging $14-15 million a season for a total contract around the $75 million mark. The Phillies are rumored to have offered a 3 year, $42 million deal according to Foxsports Ken Rosenthal. With the Mets, Yankees, and Red Sox interested in Lowe among others, it is clear that this initial offer won't get it done. While its likely that Lowe won't get his coveted 5th year from any team, he will get a 4 year deal from someone. At the end of the day, I'm gonna go out on a limb and guess he gets something like 4 years, $60-65 million with a possible club option for a 5th year. That's probably his best case scenario considering the economy and his age. Everything depends on what happens with SP CC Sabathia and SS AJ Burnett. If Sabathia ends up with the Yankees (something that looks less likely by the day unfortunately) that would likely make them less interested in pursuing Derek Lowe. If CC Sabathia goes to the Giants or Angels as rumored, then Hal & Hank Steinbrenner might personally drive the dumptruck of cash up to Lowe's house and there will be nothing the Phillies or any other team will be able to do at that point.

Things To Consider:

1. Lowe's Home/Road splits show that he is not nearly as dominant as he appears to be from playing half his games in spacious Dodger stadium. Here are his ERA splits from his time in LA.

YEAR......HOME..........ROAD
2008 -......2.30..............4.42
2007 -......3.51...............4.19
2006 -......3.18...............4.13
2005 -......3.74...............3.48

While his numbers were very good in 2005, his last three seasons show that he is not quite as dominant as he appears to be. Still, its important to consider that he is an extreme groundball pitcher and his style of play is perfectly suited to Citizens Bank Park.

Speaking of his groundball/flyball ratios, here's a rundown of those numbers for the same four seasons.

YEAR.........GB..........FB..........G/F
2008..........390.........150........2.60
2007..........398.........115.........3.46
2006..........487.........122.........3.99
2005..........447.........260.........2.92

Its troubling that 2008 was by far his worst G/F ratio of his career. Still, his 2.60 ratio is one of the best in all of baseball coming in 2nd among NL starters behind Brandon Webb.

One of the reasons Derek Lowe has been so successful since moving to the National League is his ability to keep men off base. He has been among league leaders in Walks + Hits per Innings Pitched (WHIP) in each of the past four seasons:

YEAR...........WHIP
2008.............1.113 (3rd in NL)
2007.............1.269 (12th in NL)
2006.............1.266 (12th in NL)
2005.............1.252 (17th in NL)

All in all, Derek Lowe is not an Ace pitcher. He is a very good pitcher who was miscast in that role while a member of the Dodgers. In the Phillies rotation, he would be a very solid #2 guy and his presence would have a ripple effect on the rest of the rotation and bullpen. He would create better matchups for Myers and Blanton behind him and he would help keep the bullpen well rested. The odds of him signing in Philadelphia are remote at best. He wants to go back to Boston who do not appear too too interested in him. The Yankees are a good possibility as are the Mets. Both have new stadiums, vast amounts of available cash, and a more glaring need than the 2008 World Champs. Still the Hot Stove is about what could be, not what will be and this is as good a topic as any to write about.

If the Phillies are able to sign Lowe to a 4 year deal I, for one, will be very happy with the move and might even get over losing Pat Burrell and Jamie Moyer (who likely wouldn't be back if they bring in Lowe).

Tuesday, December 2, 2008

Travesty

Ruben Amaro Jr trumped conventional wisdom when he decided to not offer arbitration to free agents SP Jamie Moyer and LF Pat Burrell. Now the Phillies will not get any type of compensation whatsoever if and when they sign with other teams. Now the odds are highly against Jamie Moyer signing with another club but LF Pat Burrell will almost certainly get a long-term deal from a team that needs a right handed hitter who will chip in 30 HRs and close to a .400 OBP. The Angels are said to be interested in Pat as a 1B/DH if they are unable to resign Mark Teixiera. There are several other teams such as the Mariners and Giants who are supposedly interested in him as well. At age 32, Burrell would have almost certainly declined arbitration, hoping for a chance to make one last killing on the free agent market. Even had he accepted, the worst case scenario for the Phillies would have been to keep their long-time leftfielder for one more season while highly touted OF prospects Dominic Brown and Michael Taylor continued to improve in the minors.

By not even offering arbitration, Amaro Jr. has clearly shown that the Phillies will always be about the bottom line first and competing for a championship second. There will be no compensation picks, no fresh talent to help rejuvenate the minor league system. The Phillies, in their infinite wisdom will likely compound this moronic decision by signing another team's Type A free agent who was actually offered arbitration so they can not only not recoup comp picks for Burrell but also sacrifice their own 1st round pick. Coming off a World Series victory, flush with cash from record attendance and record ticket sales, the Phillies have no motivation to reinvest that money in their on-field product. These moves merely reinforce the reality of the situation. Now that outsider Pat Gillick is gone, the ultimate yes-man is GM. So Ruben, pretty please with sugar on top, GO PHUCK YOURSELF!!!

Sunday, November 30, 2008

Why Giving Jamie Moyer A Multi-year Deal Is A Mistake


It started off as a casual conversation about the rumored ongoing negotiations between the Phillies Front Office and SP Jamie Moyer. Most Phillies fans have been clamoring to resign Moyer at any cost. "He's earned it" is the general consensus among even knowledgable fans. The current rumor mill has Moyer asking for a 2 year deal with a possible option year for a 3rd season. The Phillies are said to be offering a 1 year deal with a option for a 2nd season. Moyer turned 46 two weeks ago and there aren't alot of comparable 46 year old pitchers that have had good, or even passable seasons. Off the top of my head, I was able to throw out names like Phil Niekro, Charlie Hough, Satchel Paige, Tommy John, Nolan Ryan and even Hoyt Wilhelm. After a quick jaunt over to Wikipedia, I came up with guys like Jack Quinn, Nick Altrock and Jessie Orosco. Mind you, that's a list of guys that have even pitched a season at age 46, not pitched well. That said, lets look a bit closer at how some of these guys aged from 45 to 46 and even to 47 if they actually pitched at that age (very few did).

Phil Niekro - Niekro was a medical marvel and was amazing for his longevity. This longevity can be laid at his ability to throw knuckleball after knuckleball after knuckleball to opposing hitters. He was also able to put up a respectable line in his Age 46 season.

Age 45: 31 GS, 16-8, 215 IP, 3.09 ERA, 123 ERA+, 1.368 WHIP
Age 46: 33 GS, 16-12, 220 IP, 4.09 ERA, 98 ERA+, 1.468 WHIP
Age 47: 33 GS, 11-11, 210 IP, 4.32 ERA, 96 ERA+, 1.597 WHIP


Niekro was unique in his ability to put up league average seasons at Age 46 and Age 47. He is both a knuckleballer and a Hall of Famer. Moyer is neither of those things. Even with his efforts, there is a clearly discernable decline in Niekro's numbers, especially in his WHIP rate. Niekro was quite hittable in his final two seasons and this brought up his numbers significantly.

Charlie Hough - Hough is another knuckleballer who hung around into the early nineties by pitching for the expansion club Florida Marlins. Hough's claim to fame (and trivia question answer) will be his place as the starting pitcher for the Marlins inaugural home opener. I remember watching that game on television as it was the nationally televised game that week. That being said, Hough suffered a drastic decline in his numbers from Age 45 to Age 46 and he retired after his Age 46 season.

Age 45: 34 GS, 9-14, 204 IP, 4.27 ERA, 100 ERA+, 1.336 WHIP
Age 46: 21 GS, 5-9, 113 IP, 5.15 ERA, 84 ERA+, 1.496 WHIP

As you can see, Hough was done after his Age 45 season in 1993 and it was a huge mistake for him to come back in 1994 for another year. At the time of the strike, he had an ERA in the low 5's and was ineffective at best as a starter.

Satchel Paige - There are a few issues with including Satchel on this list. For one, no one has any idea what his true age was when he entered the Majors. Another issue is that he pitched mainly out of the bullpen despite a small number of spot starts. He is simply a unique player with no comparables. However, here's the breakdown of his numbers:

Age 45: 6 GS, 47 G, 12-10, 138 IP, 3.07 ERA, 127 ERA+, 1.254 WHIP
Age 46: 4 GS, 57 G, 3-9, 117 IP, 3.53 ERA, 119 ERA+, 1.304 WHIP

Paige also retired after his Age 46 season despite a short cameo at Age 58 where he pitched 3 innings for Kansas City in a start that was more publicity than anything else.

Tommy John - TJ is probably more well known to modern baseball fans for his association with the groundbreaking ligament-transplant surgery than his impressive pitching career. TJ pitched in the Majors from 1963-1989. Like most other aging pitchers, he suffered a drastic decline in his numbers from Age 45 to Age 46.

Age 45: 32 GS, 9-8, 176 IP, 4.49 ERA, 89 ERA+, 1.514 WHIP
Age 46: 10 GS, 2-7, 63 IP, 5.80 ERA, 66 ERA+, 1.712 WHIP

TJ was a non-factor in his final season. Considering his extremely high WHIP, his ERA is probably lower than it should be...this despite it being an Adam Eatonesque 5.80.

Nolan Ryan - Nolan is one of my favorite pitchers of all time. Simply put, no one could bring the heat like ol' Ryan. By bringing the heat, I mean his seeming nonchalance at beating Robin Ventura senseless (See Above Picture) when he was dumb enough to charge the mound against this ornery Texan. That said, Nolan was another pitcher who probably should have retired after his Age 45 season.

Age 45: 27 GS, 5-9, 157 IP, 3.72 ERA, 103 ERA+, 1.316 WHIP
Age 46: 13 GS, 5-5, 63 IP, 4.88 ERA, 85 ERA+, 1.417 WHIP

While Ryan's ERA+ was still a somewhat respectable 85, he struggled with injuries in his Age 46 season and was mainly ineffective because of this.

Hoyt Wilhelm - Who the hell is Hoyt Wilhelm? Yeah, that's gonna be alot of people's reactions unless they like obscure Hall of Fame knuckleball-throwing relievers. I remember him simply from his plaque in Cooperstown because of his odd name. Other than that, he was just another name to me. That said, he is on that short list of guys who pitched in the Majors at Age 46. Downside with Hoyt: He was a reliever.

Age 45: 72 G, 4-4, 93 IP, 1.73 ERA, 184 ERA+, 0.993 WHIP
Age 46: 52 G, 7-7, 78 IP, 2.19 ERA, 159 ERA+, 0.923 WHIP
Age 47: 53 G, 6-5, 82 IP, 3.40 ERA, 124 ERA+, 1.402 WHIP

Hoyt was very respectable as a reliever through his Age 47 season. He was also a reliever who relied on the knuckleball. Hoyt also pitched two more seasons retiring at the end of his Age 49 season. Though in those final two seasons, he only chipped in around 20 IP each year.

Out of those six pitchers, four retired after their Age 46 season (Hough, Paige, Ryan, John). Out of those four, only Paige had an above average season at Age 46 and he was a reliever. Phil Niekro and Hoyt Wilhelm both pitched in their Age 47 seasons. However, as I just mentioned, Wilhelm was a specialist reliever. Niekro was the only player mentioned that actually pitched primarily as a starter at Age 47. Niekro is unique in that respect. He even managed to post pretty respectable numbers at Age 47. He posted an ERA+ of 96 (100 is the equivalent of a league-average starter). Out of the four who retired at Age 46, Charlie Hough and Tommy John had ERAs well above 5 and Nolan Ryan came in with a 4.88 ERA. None of those four managed to pitch even close to 200 innings. In fact, Phil Niekro is the only guy in the history of baseball to pitch 200+ innings at Age 46 or Age 47.

What does all this mean? It means that the odds of Jamie Moyer having another above-average season at Age 46 are remote. He beat the odds at Age 45 posting very impressive numbers while he helped the Phillies win their first World Series in 28 years. However, the odds are stacked against him playing out a two-year deal with any level of respectability.

Its probably even money for Moyer to put up a league-average season next year. Niekro did it but then Niekro was a knuckleballer. Like Niekro, Moyer has a unique set of skills and that works in his favor. He doesn't rely on a blazing fastball like Nolan Ryan. He relies on pinpoint control, working the black and fooling young, aggressive hitters. He out thinks his opponent, he doesn't overpower them. If he can stay healthy and keep his stamina, he's got a shot. Staying in baseball shape at age 46 is very hard to do. If Moyer is able to do it, he will be on a very short list of players who have done so.

Saturday, November 22, 2008

Player Spotlight - CF Shane Victorino

One of the key reasons the Phillies are World Champions is the emergence of CF Shane Victorino. Victorino, a Rule V pickup from the LA Dodgers, has emerged as one of the top centerfielders in baseball offensively and defensively. 2008 was a coming out year for the Flyin' Hawaiian. He is not an elite hitter but he combines great defense, timely hits, and spectacular speed to be one of those complimentary stars that are essential to championship clubs. Vic was recognized for his achievements by snagging his first Rawlings Gold Glove award and more importantly by snagging his first World Series ring.

Victorino is just now entering his prime years at age 27. After three years of observation, we can confidently project what those years will look like. We should probably expect around a .290 batting average, .350 on base percentage, 15 HRs & 40 SB along with elite defense in centerfield. Those aren't Hall of Fame numbers by any means but they are very respectable from a guy that was essentially a scrapheap acquisition.

Looking at the numbers, you can see that Shane has steadily improved in his three full seasons as a starter.

2006: .287 AVG/.346 OBP/.414 SLG, 6 HR, 4 SB
2007: .281 AVG/.347 OBP/.423 SLG, 12 HR, 37 SB
2008: .293 AVG/.352 OBP/.447 SLG, 14 HR, 36 SB

You can easily see a slow but clear improvement in his overal numbers. This improvement becomes more evident when you look at secondary statistics like his BB/PA ratio, BB/SO, & Isolated Power numbers:

BB/PA

06 - 0.53
07 - 0.73
08 - 0.72

BB/SO

06 - 0.44
07 - 0.60
08 - 0.65

IsoP

06 - .128
07 - .143
08 - .154

We do have to consider that Victorino's Age 27 season could very well have been his career year but there are good indications that he will at least give the Phillies that level of performance for the next several years. The most likely scenario has the Phillies in control of an elite defender in centerfield who can get hot and carry the team for short stretches like he did in 2008. Victorino will never be a 3-hole hitter or a cleanup guy but he is essential to the success of the Phillies.

Friday, November 21, 2008

Herniated Disc/Lower Back Surgery


And here's some info on Pedro Feliz and back injuries (Also from About.com):

Many patients with back pain, leg pain, or weakness of the lower extremity muscles are diagnosed with a herniated disc. When a disc herniation occurs, the cushion that sits between the spinal vertebra is pushed outside its normal position. A herniated disc would not be a problem if it weren't for the spinal nerves that are very close to the edge of these spinal discs.

What is the spinal disc?
The spinal disc is a soft cushion that sits between each vertabrae of the spine. This spinal disc becomes more rigid with age. In a young individual, the disc is soft and elastic, but like so many other structures in the body, the disc gradually looses its elasticity and is more vulnerable to injury. In fact, even in individuals as young as 30, MRIs show evidence of disc deterioration in about 30% of people.

What happens with a 'herniated disc'?
As the spinal disc becomes less elastic, it can rupture. When the disc ruptures, a portion of the spinal disc pushes outside its normal boundary--this is called a herniated disc. When a herniated disc bulges out from between the vertebrae, the spinal nerves and spinal cord can become pinched. There is normally a little extra space around the spinal cord and spinal nerves, but if enough of the herniated disc is pushed out of place, then these structures may be compressed.

What causes symptoms of a herniated disc?
When the herniated disc ruptures and pushes out, the nerves may become pinched. A herniated disc may occur suddenly in an event such as a fall or an accident, or may occur gradually with repetitive straining of the spine. Often people who experience a herniated disc already have spinal stenosis, a problem that causes narrowing of the space around the spinal cord and spinal nerves. When a herniated disc occurs, the space for the nerves is further diminished, and irritation of the nerve results.

What are the symptoms of a herniated disc?
When the spinal cord or spinal nerves become compressed, they don't work properly. This means that abnormal signals may get passed from the compressed nerves, or signals may not get passed at all. Common symptoms of a herniated disc include:

  • Electric Shock Pain
    Pressure on the nerve can cause abnormal sensations, commonly experienced as electric shock pains. When the compression occurs in the cervical (neck) region, the shocks go down your arms, when the compression is in the lumbar (low back) region, the shocks go down your legs.

  • Tingling & Numbness
    Patients often have abnormal sensations such as tingling, numbness, or pins and needles. These symptoms may be experienced in the same region as painful electric shock sensations.

  • Muscle Weakness
    Because of the nerve irritation, signals from the brain may be interrupted causing muscle weakness. Nerve irritation can also be tested by examining reflexes.

  • Bowel or Bladder Problems
    These symptoms are important because it may be a sign of cauda equina syndrome, a possible condition resulting from a herniated disc. This is a medical emergency, and your should see your doctor immediately if you have problems urinating, having bowel movements, or if you have numbness around your genitals.

All of these symptoms are due to the irritation of the nerve from the herniated disc. By interfering with the pathway by which signals are sent from your brain out to your extremities and back to the brain, all of these symptoms can be caused by a herniated disc pressing against the nerves.

How is the diagnosis of a herniated disc made?
Most often, your physician can make the diagnosis of a herniated disc by physical examination. By testing sensation, muscle strength, and reflexes, your physician can often establish the diagnosis of a herniated disc.

An MRI is commonly used to aid in making the diagnosis of a herniated disc. It is very important that patients understand that the MRI is only useful when used in conjunction with examination findings. It is normal for a MRI of the lumbar spine to have abnormalities, especially as people age. Patients in their 20s may begin to have signs of disc wear, and this type of wear would be expected on MRIs of patients in their 40s and 50s. This is the reason that your physician may not be concerned with some MRI findings noted by the radiologist.

Making the diagnosis of a herniated disc, and coming up with a treatment plan depends on the symptoms experienced by the patient, the physical examination findings, and the x-ray and MRI results. Only once this information is put together can a reasonable treatment plan be considered.

Treatment of a herniated disc depends on a number of factors including:
    • Symptoms experienced by the patient
    • Age of the patient
    • Activity level of the patient
    • Presence of worsening symptoms
Most often, treatments of a herniated disc begin conservatively, and become more aggressive if the symptoms persist. After diagnosing a herniated disc, treatment usually begins with:
  • Rest & Activity Modification
    The first treatment is to rest and avoid activities that aggravate your symptoms. Many disc herniations will resolve is given time. In these cases, it is important to avoid activities that aggravate your symptoms.

  • Ice & Heat Applications
    Ice and heat application can be extremely helpful in relieving the painful symptoms of a disc herniation. By helping to relax the muscles of the back, ice and heat applications can relieve muscle spasm and provide significant pain relief.

  • Physical Therapy
    Physical therapy and lumbar stabilization exercises do not directly affect the herniated disc, but they can stabilize the lumbar spine muscles. This has an effect of decreasing the load experienced by the disc and vertebrae. Stronger, well balanced muscles help control the lumbar spine and minimize the risk or injury to the nerves and the disc.

  • Anti-Inflammatory Medications
    Nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory medications (NSAIDs) are commonly prescribed, and often help relieve the pain associated with a disc herniation. By reducing inflammation, these medications can relieve some pressure on the compressed nerves. NSAIDs should be used under your doctor's supervision.

  • Oral Steroid Medications
    Oral steroid medications can be very helpful in episodes of an acute (sudden) disc herniation. Medications used include Prednisone and Medrol. Like NSAIDs, these powerful anti-inflammatory medications reduce inflammation around the compressed nerves, thereby relieving symptoms.

  • Other Medications
    Other medications often used include narcotic pain medications and muscle relaxers. Narcotic pain medications are useful for severe, short-term pain management. Unfortunately, these medication can make you drowsy and can be addictive. It is important to use these for only brief periods of time. Muscle relaxers are used to treat spasm of spinal muscles often seen with disc herniations. Often the muscle spasm is worse than the pain from the disc pressing on the nerves.

  • Epidural Steroid Injections
    Injections of cortisone can be administered directly in the area of nerve compression. Like oral anti-inflammatory medications, the idea is to relieve the compression on the nerves. When the injection is used, the medication is delivered to the area of the disc herniation, rather than being taken orally and travelling throughout your body.

Is surgery necessary in the treatment of a disc herniation?
As mentioned, treatment of a disc herniation usually begins with the steps listed above. However, surgical treatment of a herniated disc may be recommended soon after the injury if there is a significant neurological deficit to your problem. Symptoms on pain and sensory abnormalities usually do not require immediate intervention, but patients who have significant weakness, any evidence of cauda equina syndrome, or a rapidly progressing problem may require more prompt surgical treatment.

Most often surgery is recommended if more conservative measures do not relieve your symptoms. Surgery is performed to remove the herniated disc, and free up space around the compressed nerve. Depending on the size and location of the herniated disc, and associated problems (such as spinal stenosis, arthritis, etc.), the surgery can be done by several techniques. In very straightforward cases, endoscopic or microscopic excision of the herniated disc may be possible. However, this is not always recommended, and in some cases, a more significant surgery may need to be performed.

A discectomy is a surgery done to remove a herniated disc from the spinal canal. When a disc herniation occurs, a fragment of the normal spinal disc is dislodged. This fragment may press against the spinal cord or the nerves that surround the spinal cord. This pressure causes the symptoms that are characteristic of herniated discs.

The surgical treatment of a herniated disc is to remove the fragment of spinal disc that is causing the pressure on the nerve. This procedure is called a discectomy. The traditional surgery is called an open discectomy. An open discectomy is a procedure where the surgeon uses a small incision and looks at the actual herniated disc in order to remove the disc and relieve the pressure on the nerve.

How is a discectomy performed?
A discectomy is performed under general anesthesia. The procedure takes about an hour, depending on the extent of the disc herniation, the size of the patient, and other factors. A discectomy is done with the patient lying face down, and the back pointing upwards.

In order to remove the fragment of herniated disc, your surgeon will make an incision over the center of your back. The incision is usually about 3 centimeters in length. Your surgeon then carefully dissects the muscles away from the bone of your spine. Using special instruments, your surgeon removes a small amount of bone and ligament from the back of the spine. This part of the procedure is called a laminotomy.

Once this bone and ligament is removed, your surgeon can see, and protect, the spinal nerves. Once the disc herniation is found, the herniated disc fragment is removed. Depending on the appearance and the condition of the remaining disc, more disc fragments may be removed in hopes of avoiding another fragment of disc from herniating in the future. Once the disc has been cleaned out from the area around the nerves, the incision is closed and a bandage is applied.

What is the recovery from a discectomy?
Patients often awaken from surgery with complete resolution of their leg pain; however, it is not unusual for these symptoms to take several weeks to slowly dissipate. Pain around the incision is common, but usually well controlled with oral pain medications. Patients often spend one night in the hospital, but are usually then discharged the following day. A lumbar corset brace may help with some symptoms of pain, but is not necessary in all cases.

Gentle activities are encouraged after surgery, such as sitting upright and walking. Patients must avoid lifting heavy objects, and should try not to bend or twist the back excessively. Patients should avoid strenuous activity or exercise until cleared by their doctor.

What are the potential complications of a discectomy?
The most common problem of a discectomy is that there is a chance that another fragment of disc will herniate and cause similar symptoms down the road. This is a so-called recurrent disc herniation, and the risk of this occurring is about 10-15%.

Most patients find relief of much, if not all, of their symptoms from a discectomy. However, the success of the procedure is about 85-90%, meaning that 10% of patients who undergo a discectomy will still have persistent symptoms. Patients who have symptoms for long periods of time, or severe neurologic deficits (such as significant weakness) are at higher risk of incomplete recovery.

Other risks of surgery include spinal fluid leaks, bleeding, and infection. All of these can usually be treated, but may require a longer hospitalization or additional surgery.

What is endoscopic microdiscectomy?
Newer techniques may allow your surgeon to perform a procedure called an endoscopic discectomy. In an endoscopic discectomy your surgeon uses special instruments and a camera to remove the herniated disc through very small incisions.

The endoscopic microdiscectomy is a procedure that accomplishes the same goal as a traditional open discectomy, removing the herniated disc, but uses a smaller incision. Instead of actually looking at the herniated disc fragment and removing it, your surgeon uses a small camera to find the fragment and special instruments to remove it. The procedure may not require general anesthesia, and is done through a smaller incision with less tissue dissection. Your surgeon uses x-ray and the camera to "see" where the disc herniation is, and special instruments to remove the fragment.

Endoscopic microdiscectomy is appropriate in some specific situations, but not in all. Many patients are better served with a traditional open discectomy. While the idea of a faster recovery is nice, it is more important that the surgery is properly performed. Therefore, if open discectomy is more appropriate in your situation, then the endoscopic procedure should not be done.

Hip Labrum Tear/Hip Arthroscopy

In case anyone was curious about Chase Utley's injury and possible treatment, here is some excellent info from About.com. Enjoy.

Hip arthroscopy is performed through small incisions using a camera to visualize the inside of a joint. Through several small incisions (about 1 centimeter each) your surgeon will insert a camera into one incision, and small instruments through the other incisions.

What is the benefit of hip arthroscopy compared to open surgery?
The nice part about hip arthroscopy is that it is much less invasive than traditional hip surgery. This means:

    • Early rehab
    • Accelerated rehab course
    • Outpatient procedure
    • Smaller incisions
    • Early return to sport

What conditions can be treated with hip arthroscopy?

  • Labral Tear
    The labrum of the hip is a cuff of thick tissue that surround the hip socket. The labrum helps to support the hip joint. When a labral tear of the hip occurs, a piece of this tissue can become pinched in the joint causing pain and catching sensations.

  • Loose Bodies
    Loose bodies are pieces of cartilage that form within the joint. They look like small marbles floating within the joint space. These loose bodies can become caught within the hip during movements.

  • Snapping Hip Syndrome
    Snapping hip syndrome has several causes, some of which can be treated with hip arthroscopy. If something is catching within the hip joint, hip arthroscopy can be used to relieve this snapping. Also, hip arthroscopy can be used to perform a psoas tendon release in cases of internal snapping hip syndrome.

  • Cartilage Damage
    In patients with focal cartilage damage, meaning not widespread arthritis, hip arthroscopy may be helpful. These patients may sustain an injury causing a piece of cartilage to break away from the surface of the bone. These patients may benefit from removal of that piece of cartilage.

  • Early Arthritis
    This is a controversial topic, as patients who have arthritis pain generally will not benefit from a hip arthroscopy. The patients who tend to benefit have specific finding of impingement (pinching) within the hip joint, and may benefit from removal of the bone spurs causing this impingement. This is only possible in the very early stages of arthritis, and even then may not offer relief of symptoms.

What are the possible complications from hip arthroscopy?
The most concerning complications of hip arthroscopy have to do with several important nerves and blood vessels that surround the joint. Nerve injury is uncommon, but can be a significant problem. The most commonly affected nerves include the sciatic nerve, the lateral femoral cutaneous nerve (sensation to the thigh), and the pudendal nerve. Injury to any of the nerves can cause pain and other problems.

Other possible complications from hip arthroscopy include potential injury to normal structures, infection, and continued pain after the surgery. The rate of these complications is low, but patients need to understand the potential prior to undergoing a hip arthroscopy.

Friday, November 14, 2008

All Quiet On The Free Agent Front...

Free Agency is now 19 hours old and there is absolutely nothing to report for the Phillies. The Phillies are not expected to be involved in any of the 1st Tier free agents anyway and there has been a Kremlin-like silence from newly appointed GM Ruben Amaro Jr. so far. The Phillies have supposedly alreadly made one attempt to resign LF Pat Burrell just after the season ended. They are also supposedly in serious talks with free agent SP Jamie Moyer. Moyer, coming off of an impressive season in which he had a sub 4.00 ERA and led the team in wins at age 45, is looking for at least a 2 year deal. Shooting from the hip, I'll predict that Moyer signs a 2 year, $14-16 million with a good number of incentives based off innings pitched. Worst case is Moyer completely hits the wall in 09 and we simply have a very expensive 2nd pitching coach. Odds, and any rational statistical analysis, point to Jamie having a decent season in 09 and a further drop-off at age 47 in 2010. Still, considering we got him for free, he'll be worth whatever they end up paying him. Jamie might not have an ERA in the 3.00s again but he's still a very capable starter. Burrell is more of a long-shot to resign but I still see it happening. There hasn't been any buzz whatsoever on Burrell so far. He's a liability defensively and he doesn't like to DH so that limits his options considerably. He's likely a 2nd tier free agent and that will also hurt his marketability during an off-season where the national economic downturn will affect such signings. His best fit is in Philly and both he and the Front Office will likely eventually figure that out. My guess is somewhere around 3 years, $40 million. It could very well end up lower than that in the end if the market for aging LFs really drys up. The Phillies are also rumored to be looking for some cheap bullpen help, so we should expect them to sign some low key veteran relievers to take over the long reliever roles. The key parts of the 'pen are already in place so there won't be any big waves made. The bench is more likely to receive reinforcement internally from prospects like C Lou Marson and SS Jason Donald so I wouldn't expect any major signings in that department either. The Phillies could still stun us with another major Winter trade to fill their LF hole but its a longshot at this point.

Yeah, its a boring off-season so far but we did just win the World Series so I can't complain too much.

Saturday, November 8, 2008

That Gaping Hole In Left Field...What To Do?


The Phillies have had the luxury of having a former #1 overall pick entrenched in Left-field for the past nine seasons. Now that #1 pick is a free agent and the Phillies Front Office, under the direction of newly appointed General Manager Ruben Amaro Jr., has its first critical decision to make for the offseason. Since becoming the Phillies starting leftfielder in early 2000, Pat Burrell (pictured right) has been a bulwark for this Phillies team. While he never lived up to the hype and early hopes of his breakout 2002 effort (.282, 37 HR, 116 RBI at age 25), he provided a solid right handed bat in the lineup dominanted by lefties like Utley, Thome, Howard, and Abreu. Burrell was always good for 25-30 HR, 90-100 RBI, a .250-260 AVG, a high OBP, and an OPS+ around 120 every season. He did have his issues: poor range in LF, a horrid 2003 season, a sometimes overly patient approach at the plate, and a poor reputation. These detractors ignored that Pat was always the first to the ballpark on gamedays, has a very accurate arm, and was one of the hardest workers on the team. He is also considered a leader in the clubhouse even if he's never been vocal to the media following the team.

Last month, the Phillies won the 2008 World Series and they did so despite Pat Burrell's 1-14 effort at the plate in five games. Pat did have a huge double in Game 5 that set up the winning run for that clinching game but other than that he was a non-factor in the World Series. Immediately after that World Series victory, the Phillies reportedly offered Pat a 2 year, $22 million deal to remain in Philadelphia for his age 32 and age 33 seasons. This offer was reportedly immediately turned down by the Burrell camp. It is unclear whether or not Pat will be brought back at this point. The Phillies have refused to grant long-term contracts to declining veterans in the past and it is unlikely that they will offer anything more than a 3 year deal. Burrell will likely be offered more years and more money from one of the many teams needing a solid right-handed power bat in their lineup. So this leaves the Phillies with a quandary: What to do with leftfield.

So here are some options for them:

1. Make a Trade - The Phillies have the prospects and players to make a trade of a good outfielder who is a right-handd bat. They have been rumored to be highly interested in LF Matt Holliday of the Colorado Rockies. The price will be very high as Holliday is coming off of a huge season but it will also be a 1 year rental for the Phillies as Holliday is a free agent after 2009 and is also a Scott Boras client. The Phillies won't be able to resign Holliday for anything approaching his true value and honestly Holliday is somewhat a creation of Coors Field anyway. Away from Coors, Holliday's numbers do not even compare to his MVP like numbers at home. The Rockies are said to be highly interested in CF Shane Victorino in a possible trade but it would be a huge mistake for the Phillies to trade their youngest position player who is also just coming into his prime. Vic has been a sparkplug since coming to the Phillies via the Rule V draft and is also one of the few affordable players on their roster. The Phillies could also offer a package of prospects but it would likely take touted prospects C Lou Marson, SP Carlos Carrasco, SS Jason Donald and someone else to make the Rockies say yes. Trading away that amount of talent from a generally thin minor-league system would be a big mistake. So a trade of that magnitude would be a mistake.

2. Sign A Top OF Free Agent - There are several very good OFs on the market but most have issues for one reason or another. LF Manny Ramirez would be great but he is looking for, and will get, far more money than the Phillies could and would ever pay a 36 year old with a bad repuation for hardwork. He's already said to have a 2 year, $50+ million deal on the table for the Dodgers. LF Adam Dunn is also available but he bats lefthanded and wouldn't be a good fit for the Phillies lineup. He would also likely be prohibitably expensive. We could also look at a guy like OF Milton Bradley. Bradley had a great 2008 season for the Rangers but he comes with a ton of baggage, both from numerous injuries and a very bad clubhouse reputation. He might also want a multi-year deal. With his injury history (never played more than 141 games), he is far too risky to sign long-term.

3. Sign a 2nd Tier Free Agent - The Phillies could also sign a platoon mate for OF Geoff Jenkins and/or UT Greg Dobbs to handle leftfield until a better option arises in a year. There are several veterans out there that hit lefties quite well and would be decent options. Jerry Hairston Jr is coming off an excellent season in Cincinatti during which he hit well over .300 in around 280 AB. A guy like OF Juan Rivera of the Angels could also be a good fit. He was an up and coming right handed bat until he shattered his leg during the 2007 season. Since then he has been relegated to the bench by free agent signings Gary Matthews Jr and Torii Hunter. Still, he might be something to consider.

4. Re-sign Pat Burrell...And Damn the Cost - The Phillies could bite the bullet and give Pat whatever he wants, be it $15 million per season or a 4 year deal. This, of course, would be a huge mistake as Pat is already a guy who gets replaced for defense in any close game. Pat is 32 and in the decline phase of his career. It would also handcuff a team that already has too much money committed in long-term deals. The Phillies need to find ways to lock up Ace Cole Hamels and slugger Ryan Howard before they blow money on Pat Burrell.

5. Do Nothing - The Phillies could, and probably will, do absolutely nothing. They could use a platoon of Matt Stairs and Geoff Jenkins in LF. They could hope that prospect Greg Golson figures out how to hit a curve ball. They could easily rest on their laurels as they are coming off their first World Series victory in 28 years. They could easily cite salary constraints due to huge raises through arbitration to most of their core players prevented them from resigning Pat or any other big name free agent.

Thursday, October 30, 2008

Thoughts On The Off-Season

Well, now that we got that pesky World Series thing out of the way, its time to look at the Phillies issues and concerns going into the 2009 season.

Key Free Agents:

LF Pat Burrell - Will Pat resign with Philly? Does the team want him back? I think both questions can have a "Yes" answer but it will come down to what Pat's demands are. If Pat asks for 4 years, $10-15 million per year, then I don't see him back. If he asks for half that (i.e. 2 years, $10 million per, that could happen. Burrell loves playing in Philly. He's never played anywhere else and Citizen's Bank Park benefits Pat both defensively and offensively. Like Manny in Boston, Pat is uniquely suited to playing LF in Philadelphia. Besides which, the fans have finally come around on Pat and he is one of the most respected players on the team.

SP Jamie Moyer - Is this it for the old man? I made a prediction that Jamie would retire if and when the Phillies won the World Series. One of the few things lacking on Jamie's resume was a World Series ring and he took care of that in fine fashion this week. Moyer is 45 going on 46 and he just finished up one of the best seasons ever for a pitcher that age. For a non-knuckler, it could arguably be the best season outside of a Nolan Ryan/Satchel Paige effort. Jamie has made some waves about coming back next year but he is technically not under contract anymore. If he plays next year, it will almost certainly be in Philly. He'd probably cost somewhere in the $5 million range and that is eminently reasonable in a world where Adam Eaton and Carlos Silva both make that much or more. He led the team in wins and had a very respectable ERA at age 45. There is no reason to expect he can't do the same next season. Even if he can't perform on the field, his presence on the pitching staff is invaluable. I say push to bring him back.

Arbitration:

1B Ryan Howard - Howard is, of course, arbitration eligible again. Last season he asked for $10 million and we offered around $6 million. Ryan shattered the old record with his win in arbitration and then promptly went out and hit 48 HRs and drove in over 140 RBIs. Granted his batting average was a little low and he still struck out a ton, but there is no denying that he earned his salary this year. That said, he's likely gonna want another good raise. Consider that Detroit 1B Miguel Cabrera just signed a long-term deal that averaged $18 million per season. Howard and his agent will likely use that as the basis for any contract or arbitration discussion. So figure on Howard asking for $18 million and the Phillies offering $12-14 million. I predict another Phillies loss in that situation. Howard may very well have a 2nd MVP trophy on his mantle by any potential arbitration hearing too. That will definitely color and arbiter's decision. The Phillies will pull out his defense, strikeout totals, average against lefties, etc etc. Howard will simply point at his Rookie of the Year, 2 MVPs and World Series ring. Who do you think comes out on top?

SP Cole Hamels - So yeah, Hamels is gonna make a killing in arbitration and the next General Manager would be better off simply bending over now and taking it from Cole's agent. You have the best young lefty in the game coming off a season in which he led his team to their first World Series victory in 28 years. A World Series and playoffs in which he was an MVP twice over. Hamels went from a "Good Young Pitcher" to "Clutch Ace Pitcher" in three and a half weeks of October baseball. The Phillies should (and likely will) open the vault door for him. I predict a monster deal that averages $15-20 million over 5-6 years at a minimum. Cole is truly a special player and the type of player you lock up.

SP Joe Blanton - The Phillies seemed to pay a steep price tradewise for the surprisingly young (just 27) Joe Blanton. What most Phans ignored was that Joe was indeed a young player. I, for one, supported the Blanton trade from the start and I was not disappointed by his effort as a Phillie. He's still undefeated as a Starter in the NL and apparently he's not half bad with the lumber either. Expect the Bulldog to pocket something in the $5-8 million range this winter in arbitration. He's a very solid #4 starter and he's worth every penny. At his best he can shut down the opposing team (See Game 4), at his worst he eats innings and keeps his team in it usually. He even seems to like playing in Philly so you have that as well.

CF Shane Victorino - Vic is making close to the league minimum right now and he will easily become a millionaire at the arbitration table. I predict that Vic and the Front Office will come to terms before arbitration though. Vic really blossomed as a full-time player this season despite switching positions. He led the team in batting average and continued to swipe bases. Despite the ocasional bonehead play, Vic played hard for the entire season and provided the team with an important sparkplug. His 13 RBIs in the playoffs were a team record. I see the Phillies trying to lock Vic up through his arbitration years. He's a very good young player who compliments this lineup perfectly.

RF Jayson Werth - Jayson proved that he is more than a platoon player this season. He was healthy for the first time in his career and his power and on-base numbers soared as a result. He also showed great speed in the outfield and on the bases as well as a plus arm. Jayson will also get a good raise this winter.

RP Ryan Madson & Chad Durbin - Both provided key anchors to the best bullpen in baseball and both will be brought back. Madson transformed himself from a decent middle reliever to an elite setup man courtesy of a new workout regimen due to Jamie Moyer's influence. Durbin carried the bullpen in his middle relief role for the first 4.5 months. Both will be back and both will be more expensive.

UT Greg Dobbs, UT Eric Bruntlett, & RP Clay Condrey - Of the three I see Dobbs back in his 3B platoon/pitch-hit extraordinaire role but I wonder about Bruntlett and Condrey. Both are eminently replacable. SS Jason Donald will be pushing Bruntlett for a roster spot come spring and Condrey will have to fight for the final bullpen spot. Dobbs will get a decent but not huge raise but the other two will not get much of anything.

Spare Parts:

SP Adam Eaton - We're lucky in the fact that Adam will make around $8 million no matter what happens next year. He'll also get a World Series ring somehow. Either way, he likely won't be back next year. They may give him a Spring Training invite but the smart move would be to eat it on his contract and simply outright release him. Eaton was a mistake signing. The Front Office knows it, the team knows it, we the fans know it and even Adam knows it. His performance, outside of a brief stretch of respectability in June, was atrocious.

SP Kyle Kendrick - Kyle's numbers screamed correction for 2008 and we were not let down. He declined in all aspects of the game and showed himself to be a very borderline major leaguer. He only has one decent pitch in his slider and the rest is a work in progress. If he ever learns to throw a changeup, he might have another shot at the Majors. Till then, he's AAA fodder. Considering some of the young pitching prospects currently in the system, Kendrick could soon find himself a career IronPig.

Likely Gone in 09:

RP Rudy Seanez, RP Clay Condrey, RP Les Walrond, RP Scott Eyre*, OF So Taguchi, OF Matt Stairs, C Chris Coste - Seanez, Condrey, and Walrond are all interchangeable parts. I see Walrond staying around as a AAA starter as he is more of a AAAA player at best. Eyre might cost too much to come back (see below). Taguchi didn't really contribute much of anything the entire year so there is no reason whatsoever to expect him back. He's also winding down as an MLBer. The same can be said for Stairs though he will be able to go out on his own terms. Stairs will play in 09 if he wants to. I predict a retirement (and free drinks at any Philly bar for the rest of his life) for Matt Stairs. He solidified himself in Phillies Lore with under two months of effort. Coste will likely get pushed out due to his increasing age and hotshot young catching prospect Lou Marson.

Newcomers for 09:

SP J.A. Happ, C Lou Marson, SS/UT Jason Donald, SP Carlos Carrasco.


My prediction is that guys like Eyre and Stairs MIGHT be back but I wouldn't count on it. Stairs could very well retire as he's already 40 and now is a World Series winner. Eyre provided a great effort down the stretch as the perfect LOOGY and compliment to premier lefty reliever J.C. Romero. To get him back we might have to pay more than we're willing to spend. Donald is currently working at several different IF positions in the Arizona Fall League and he has the range to play 2B, 3B, and SS in the majors. I predict he's in and Bruntlett is out. Carrasco will continue to complete his skills in AAA and will be the first guy called up in case of injury. Happ isn't so much of a newcomer as 2009 will technically be his 3rd season on the Phillies. However, he's still a rookie and he has proven that he has the stuff to be a decent starter for the Phillies. I see him winning the #5 spot out of Spring Training.

Wednesday, October 29, 2008

Finally!

It only took 28 years. Finally, thank God, we won it all. Think of it this way, no matter what happens for the next five years, WE WON A WORLD SERIES. A Mets fan tries to bash the Phillies...Yeah, that's great, WE WON A WORLD SERIES. The bottom line is that everything after this is gravy for at least five years, hell maybe ten years considering its Philly. The Phillies won the World Series and they did it as a team. Role players like Carlos Ruiz and Jayson Werth carried them to the championship. Guys like Eric Bruntlett, Matt Stairs, Geoff Jenkins, and Pedro Feliz had huge hits and even the big names came through when it mattered. Perhaps the most fitting moment of the 5 game series occurred when the maligned LF Pat Burrell, the longest tenured player on the roster came up to the plate in a key at bat with a huge insurmontable 0-13 line hanging over his head to that point. Pat the Bat, Manchine, PtB, whatever you want to call him came through and came through huge. He absolutely hammered a ball 400 feet to straight center. Off the bat it was a homerun on any other night. Unfortunately for Pat the wind was blowing straight in from Center. That didn't matter so much as Pat got every bit of that ball and got just enough to bank it off the wall for a standup double. Like clockwork, Burrell was lifted for a pinch runner and his Phillies career had its final moment. The pinchrunner ended up scoring the winning run for the clinching game of the World Series as Pat stood with tears in his eyes in the dugout. Pat did his job and helped his team, his only professional team, go ahead for the last time. After season after long season of losing, this victory had to be sweetest of all for Pat. And sweetest of all: WE WON THE WORLD SERIES!!!

Monday, October 27, 2008

Redemption!

After a long and somewhat contentious year for 1B Ryan Howard, the Phillies slugging 1B finally, truly, and completely won over the passionate, raucious blue-collar fanbase of Philadelphia. Howard was a much maligned player for most of this season as he started off the first two months of the season on one of the deepest slumps in recent memory for any player of his stature. It took Howard until July 4th to permanently drag his average over the .220 mark. Howard looked completely lost for long stretches of the season. The rabid fanbase quickly turned on the big slugger. Many said he should be platooned as he simply could not hit left-handed pitching. Many said he should be traded for anything they could get. Some of the more rabid fans even used the blogs to lambast Howard on a daily basis. This blogger specifically focused all of his frustration and anger and an underperforming ballclub at what Harry Kalas calls "The Gentle Giant". I went so far as to track his daily strikeout totals as they spiraled towards shattering his own MLB single-season record. Quietly though, things began to change. Ryan kept plugging away and the repeated slumps got less and less frequent as the season wore on. As other players wore down, Howard came on stronger and stronger, posting MVP-type numbers over the 2nd half the season. Howard had a historic September during which he carried the team for the entire month, refusing to lose the division. Howard hit a smoking .352 with 11 HR/32 RBI for the month. Then came October and with it the old Ryan Howard. Many of us quickly jumped on the familiar and easy target. He can't field. He lacks concentration in the field. He's too easily neutralized by a good lefty. We spouted all these easy attacks, ripping him in all aspects of the game. He had an atrocious 2-11 with 5 K in the NLDS
and the attacks were vicious. Then came the NLCS and with it, Ryan began to woke up. He batted .300 but slugged an abysmal .350 due to breaking ball after breaking ball down in the zone. The book on Howard is well known and the Dodgers followed it religously. The World Series started off the same way in Games 1 and 2 as Ryan just looked lost at the plate. Then came Game 3 in Philadelphia. Howard smashed his first HR of the postseason and with it ended weeks of frustration. Game 4 brought us the Ryan Howard we all cheered on in September. Howard crushed 2 HR and picked up 5 RBI including 3 on a crucial 4th inning shot that broke the game open. Howard was the hero of game 4 and he finally won over the toughest fans in baseball. Tonight is a possible clinching Game 5 and we'll cheer Ryan on as he leads the Phillies towards a long awaited championship.

Sunday, October 26, 2008

Jamie Moyer: Playing The Game The Right Way

Most 45-year-old men would be at home watching last night's game on tv with their family or even in the stands cheering the team on. Most Major Leaguers are long retired by the time they reach 45. They are broadcasters, scouts, coaches, or managers by the time they reach that esteemed age. Jamie Moyer is different. At 45, he is at the top of his game pitching a gem to help win Game 3 of the 2008 World Series. On guts, guile and pure determination, Moyer shut down a young Rays lineup with the same stuff he's had for his entire career. His fastball never topped 82 mph but that didn't matter. Moyer took the team on his back and propelled them to a crucial Game 3 victory on a brisk rain-soaked field in South Philly. Moyer proves that its more about hard work and determination than pure ability. He has never thrown over 90 in his career or been the guy that will repeatedly strikeout the side with fireball after fireball. Moyer made perhaps the best defensive play of his career in the top of the 7th inning last night on a running bunt by LF Carl Crawford. Crawford, well known as one of the fastest players in the league, bunted towards 1B and took off running. Moyer, displaying the speed and agility that some 21-year-olds don't have, bounded off the mound, gloved the ball and quickly shoveled it too a waiting Ryan Howard who barehanded it just before Crawford's foot hit the base. This was a crucial play that would kill a potential rally right after the Phillies had taken a commanding 4-1 lead on the strength of back-to-back homeruns by sluggers Chase Utley and the previously mentioned Howard. Moyer showed that he was there to win and was gonna leave everything on the field in what may be his final game as a professional. But it was not to be. The 1B ump, who admitted after the fact that he relied on the sound of the ball hitting the glove instead of his own eyes, called Crawford safe in an absolute travesty of a call for the game's biggest stage. The Rays went on to chase Moyer from the game scoring two runs that should never have been on base in the first place. Instead of going into the 8th with a commanding 4-1 lead to hand off to the dominating Madson/Lidge 1-2 punch, they had a shaky 4-3 lead with the very dangerous B.J. Upton leading things off. The Phillies won in the end on the most spectacular infield hit in the history of Citizen's Bank Park by C Carlos Ruiz but that doesn't matter. The officiating in this World Series had been questionable at times and downright scary on occasion. Jamie Moyer has been robbed of his place in history by losing both his Win and place on every highlight reel for the next 20 years. The team won and that is all that is important. That is what Jamie would tell us if he were asked and it wouldn't be just another line from a spoiled athlete. It would be the truth. A truth founded deep down in the heart of a man who plays the game the right way, the way the game deserves to be played. Moyer goes out there every 5th day, takes the ball for his team, and honors the game he plays. He honors it with his work ethic. He honors it with the reverence for the respect he shows for the history of the game. He understands that baseball is not just a game. Baseball is a part of our cultural history and our lives. He realizes that 45,000 fans come to the stadium to watch something that is far more important than a mere game to them. It is a part of their life, something they will tell their kids and grandkids. Moyer again proved that respect with his spectacular play last night and his constant mentoring of the players around him. There's a good chance that Jamie Moyer will never be inducted into the Hall of Fame in Cooperstown but that doesn't matter. He's the first to tell you that the accolades aren't important. It's about winning and winning the right way.

Phillies Prove Existence of Merciful God


With the entire world against them, the Phillies dominated a young Tampa Bay Rays team for most of the night yet went into the bottom of the 9th with a 4-4 tie game. The Phillies had been up 4-1 in the 7th when an absolutely brutal call on a play at first base changed the entire complexion of the game. SP Jamie Moyer made perhaps the most impressive hustle play in the history of the franchise only to see a botched call by 1B umpire Alex Halion steal his spot in history. Watching this game was an exhausting experience to say the least. Our big names continued to struggle for much of the game but heroes come from unexpected places. A 45 year old starter dominated a young opponent. A defensive replacement in the much-maligned UT Eric Bruntlett came through in a crucial situation in the bottom of the 9th on the bases. C Carlos "Chooch" Ruiz continued his bid for an MVP Trophy after batting a utilitarian .219 during the regular season. The Phillies are beginning to have the feeling of a team of destiny this October as they continue to find ways to win despite somewhat lackluster performances by their big stars. Tomorrow has SP Joe Blanton facing off against the young SP Andy Sonnanstine for the Rays. The road to winning the World Series is now looking clearer for the Phillies. Blanton will be on the mound and Ace Cole Hamels will pitch a possible clinching Game 5 on Monday.

Thursday, October 23, 2008

One Down...Three To Go


SP Cole Hamels dominated on the national stage and he is now finally being talked about as an Ace Starter by the national media. This attention and respect is long overdue for Hamels. Hamels is the best left-handed pitcher to wear a Phillies uniform since Carlton and easily the best Phillies pitcher since Schilling. He's eccentric, moody, arrogant and picky. He's also a dominant player not even in his prime yet. At 24 he's still getting better each year. This season he was already a Top 5 pitcher in the National League. If he stays healthy, always a concern with Cole, then he will be a Cy Young contender every season for years to come. So far he's 4-0 with a sizzling 1.55 ERA in the Postseason joining the ranks of other elite players who raise their game to a different level in October. Cole won us Game 1 and there are 3 more to go for the first Championship in 28 years. Game 2 is tonight at 8:35 PM.

Wednesday, October 22, 2008

Phillies In World Series

So the Phillies are in the World Series for the first time since I was twelve years old and it still doesn't feel real. I haven't posted on this site in a few months as I've been so busy with so many other things in the real world including a new job, moving and other annoyances. The Phillies won the Pennant. Let's repeat that: The Phillies Won The Pennant! That has a nice ring to it, doesn't it? So no matter what happens in the next week, the Phillies will be putting a banner up next season. The only question is whether it will be the franchise's 2nd World Series banner or 6th National League Pennant. The Phillies will be facing the upstart Tampa Bay Rays, a team not expected to really compete this season but one that turned out to dominant the toughest division in baseball for most of the year. I personally picked the Rays as my team that would compete this year but be unstoppable next sesaon as all their young talent got a little older. So I was off a year, I suppose. Of course, no one else in the world, including the Rays themselves, thought so either. The Phillies would probably have matched up better with the Red Sox but that's life. The Rays have great young pitching, underrated young players, and a decent bullpen. All in all it should be a hell of a series. The Phillies will come down to three players on offense: Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, and Jimmy Rollins. They are the heart and soul of this team and have been so for the past four seasons. If those three show up and play like they can play, the Phillies can win. If they go 3 for 27, then we're in trouble. We've got the pitching, we've got the bullpen and we've got great role players like Jayson Werth and Shane Victorino. If the heart of this lineup hits like it can hit, then we can win. It'll all be over in the next 10 days.

Go Phillies!

Tuesday, August 19, 2008

Campaign Cheer

In response to JRoll's painful but still true comments...Support Campaign Cheer!!!

http://pabaseball.blogspot.com/2008/08/game-day-campaign-cheer-in-full-effect.html

Saturday, July 26, 2008

Moment of Truth

This is the week that will make or break this season for the Phillies. This is also the week that will cement Pat Gillick's legacy as General Manager of the team. The non-waiver trade deadline is fast approaching this Thursday and with it any real chance to improve the team's chances via an infusion of talent. The Phillies of 6 weeks ago appeared to be a World Series favorite and many argued that they could very well be at the level of an elite team. They had cruised into early June easily atop the NL East and they were well over .500 at the time. Since that moment, everything that could go wrong has gone wrong and the wheels have completely off. They have been in a solid tailspin since then and have watched the division rival Mets pull together as a team and overtake them in the standings. As of this moment they are 1.5 games back and despite a wild win this afternoon they present the image of a rapidly fading team with little chance of making the playoffs. All this bears the question of 'What the heck has happened?"

For starters the team has suddenly forgotten how to hit and how to hit consistently. Consistent offense has always been a problem with this Phillies team and they have always relied heavily on the long ball to produce offense. This tendency has only increased this season. Despite a recent surge in hitting and great production with RISP, 1B Ryan Howard is still only batting .235 for the season. SS Jimmy Rollins, the reigning MVP, has suddenly reverted to his 2005 self and is no longer an offensive threat yet is still batting leadoff on a nightly basis. He has some of the worst numbers among leadoff men in all of the majors and his power has all but disappeared this year. 2B Chase Utley has been slowly dropping off since his blazing hot start and the rest of the offense other than LF Pat Burrell (who is in the midst of a career year) has been missing-in-action all season. Far too many balls are popped up on the first pitch or hit into costly double-plays to kill rallies at the worst moments.

Secondly, the team appears to be adrift in the leadership department since the offseason departure of CF Aaron Rowand who decided he'd rather be paid very well to lose than have a real shot at the playoffs. Considering that the Phillies Front Office never made any real effort to bring him back, I cannot truly blame him for his decision and San Francisco is a beautiful city to live in. Still, the Phillies sorely miss both his right-handed bat and his take charge leadership style on and off the field. Supposed leader Jimmy Rollins appears to be anything but. In all actuality he shows every indication of being a clubhouse cancer with his laidback style in all aspects of the game. He is not known to show up early or stay late nor has he shown consistent hustle at times this season. He has been benched twice in the past month for violating team rules and not one position player stepped up and called him on it. In fact, the only man with any balls on the team is apparently 45 year old veteran pitcher Jamie Moyer who did actually make a public statement that for all intents and purposes slammed the reigning MVP for his behavior. Neither veteran leader Pat Burrell, nor face of the team Chase Utley, nor slugging 1B Ryan Howard said anything or made any indication that they agreed with the benching.

Pitching, pitching, pitching is the mantra of a champion ball club and the Phillies have far too little of it to really succeed. Instead of trading for a legitimate #2 starter, the Phillies vastly overpaid for the highly overrated Joe Blanton, holder of a high 4 ERA in the very pitcher friendly Oakland Coliseum. Joe Blanton, or Adam Eaton West as he should be known is not the answer and has never been the answer. Anyone with a rudimentary knowledge of how to read a home/road split should have understood that but unfortunately GM Pat Gillick must have lost his reading glasses that day and now Joe Blanton is "The Answer" for the Phillies Front Office. While other contenders were trading for Ace pitchers such as Rich Harden or CC Sabathia the Phillies get another mediocre #4 starter to add to their collection of soft throwing bottom of the rotation starters.

This upcoming week will tell us alot about this club and the 2008 season. Will the Phillies put together a winning streak and hang with the division leading Mets? Will GM Pat Gillick make another move to help the club? Will Joe Blanton pitch well in his 2 starts? Will the offense finally remember how to hit? Etc etc etc. This week will tell us if this team has any heart or if they care more about their animal charities and padding their stats for Arbitration and Free Agency as opposed to playing winning baseball.

This team could very easily finish with around 80 wins in 3rd place or they could very easily finish with 90+ wins and take the NL East. They have the talent for the later and have shown the heart for the former so far. Only time will tell.

Tuesday, July 15, 2008

Boo?...F*ck You!

Simply put, Chase Utley is the best Phillie to ever live. Give um Hell Chase!!!

Player of the Week-2B Chase Utley: I know its early but with his admirable performance last night at the 2008 All-Star Game HR Derby, Chase Utley has solidified his place in the pantheon of Philadelphia sports.

Thursday, July 10, 2008

Happ Comes Through


Rookie SP J.A Happ has made two starts for the Philadelphia Phillies and thus far has not gotten a decision in either game despite pitching well both times. He has, however, done his job keeping the Phillies offense in the game and giving them a chance to win. That is something that his predecessor Brett Myers did not do. So far, Happ has posted a 3.27 ERA in 11 innings spanning 2 starts. He has struck out 8 and walked 8 as he has struggled at times with his control. Overall, he has given them a chance to win and that is all he needs to do. Hopefully he continues to build on these early efforts and sticks with the team.

Wednesday, July 9, 2008

Lidge Signed Long Term

You have to give the Phillies credit for locking up closer Brad Lidge for a 3 year $37 million deal. Considering that Lidge is currently 31 this deal appears to be the perfect length to get the most out of a guy who has been simply lights out since coming over from the Houston Astros. The key to this deal was getting done during the season so there were no other bidders in the running. His price would have almost certainly gone way up had they waited until the end of the season. So this deal was the right deal for the time and the right price. Good job Gillick. Now all you have to do is cut Taguchi and trade for a legit starter and I'll stop complaining.

Friday, July 4, 2008

Weekly Awards

This week its short and sweet:

Player of the Week - 2B Chase Utley: After suffering through a brutal slump for most of June, Chase Utley righted himself this week with a 10 for 27 (.370) performance. He led the team with 6 runs scored and 20 total bases and played the role of table setter for Pat Burrell and Ryan Howard who both had solid weeks as well. Utley's line: .370 avg, 4 2B, 2 HR, 6 R, 4 RBI, 1 SB, .414 OBP, 1.155 OPS.

Pitcher of the Week - SP Cole Hamels: Cole has simply been a workhorse this season and this past week was no exception. Hamels went 2-0 on the week winning both his starts while posting a 2.87 ERA. Simply put, he dominated for the week and fully demonstrated why he is the Ace of the Phillies staff. His line: 15.2 IP, 2.87 ERA, 11 H, 5 ER, 4 BB, 15 K, 0.96 WHIP.

Goat of the Week - SP Brett Myers: Brett had such a good week that he is now an IronPig. After another of his pathetic little league esque performances, Brett (and the Phillies fateful) was put out of his misery with a well deserved demotion to the minors to "work on his mechanics". In his one start Brett lasted all of 2 innings allowing 5 H, 5 ER, 1 HR while walking 4 and recording 2 K. That was good for a 22.50 ERA on the week. Good luck in Allentown and good riddance.

Saturday, June 28, 2008

Define "Elite Closer"

It's something the Phillies haven't had in a long time, if ever. A guy who comes in with the game on the line and shuts the opposition down no matter who's batting be it their defensive catcher or all-star slugger. He thrives on the pressure and elevates his game in tight situations. In all of baseball there are only a handful of truly elite closers. Brad Lidge is one of them. Lidge is 19 for 19 this season in Save opportunities and his outstanding performance has made GM Pat Gillick look like a genius for trading a long-shot prospect, journeyman reliever, and 5th outfielder to Houston for him. Gillick was able to buy low with Lidge as he was coming off a somewhat mediocre season and desperately needing a change of scenery to regain his confidence. Lidge had not been the same since blowing game 6 of the 2006 NLCS against Albert Pujols and the Houston faithful had never let him forget it. Coming into this seasons, a myriad of questions surrounded Lidge. Would he be able to handle the pressures of playing in Philadelphia? Would he regain his confidence? How good would he be? Was he even the best option with SP Brett Myers coming off an impressive half-season as closer? So far, the answer to all these questions has been a resounding "YES." Lidge has allowed just 3 ER in 33 IP while saving 19 games in 19 opportunities. He's also struck out 43 batters in just 33 innings (11.73 K/9) while walking just 15. His fastball has been fantastic and his slider has been downright filthy. Opposing hitters are batting a brisk .167 against him so far. All in all, he has been everything the Phillies hoped for and much much more. Simply put, he is an Elite Closer.