Saturday, June 28, 2008

Define "Elite Closer"

It's something the Phillies haven't had in a long time, if ever. A guy who comes in with the game on the line and shuts the opposition down no matter who's batting be it their defensive catcher or all-star slugger. He thrives on the pressure and elevates his game in tight situations. In all of baseball there are only a handful of truly elite closers. Brad Lidge is one of them. Lidge is 19 for 19 this season in Save opportunities and his outstanding performance has made GM Pat Gillick look like a genius for trading a long-shot prospect, journeyman reliever, and 5th outfielder to Houston for him. Gillick was able to buy low with Lidge as he was coming off a somewhat mediocre season and desperately needing a change of scenery to regain his confidence. Lidge had not been the same since blowing game 6 of the 2006 NLCS against Albert Pujols and the Houston faithful had never let him forget it. Coming into this seasons, a myriad of questions surrounded Lidge. Would he be able to handle the pressures of playing in Philadelphia? Would he regain his confidence? How good would he be? Was he even the best option with SP Brett Myers coming off an impressive half-season as closer? So far, the answer to all these questions has been a resounding "YES." Lidge has allowed just 3 ER in 33 IP while saving 19 games in 19 opportunities. He's also struck out 43 batters in just 33 innings (11.73 K/9) while walking just 15. His fastball has been fantastic and his slider has been downright filthy. Opposing hitters are batting a brisk .167 against him so far. All in all, he has been everything the Phillies hoped for and much much more. Simply put, he is an Elite Closer.

Friday, June 27, 2008

Weekly Awards

When looking back at the past week and the Phillies wonderful 1-5 effort, I ask myself, "Why bother with awards this week?". The team collectively sucked and other than Kyle Kendrick's wonderful performance Wednesday night against that Oakland Athletics, they didn't even bother to show up. That said, here are the weekly "awards" for the past week:

Player of the Week - CF Shane Victorino: Vic had an alright week at the plate going 6 for 20 (.300), 2 RBI, 2 R, 6 SB along with 3 BB. He posted a respectable .391 OBP for the week. Considering the team as a whole batted .174, Vic stood out as the one regular who had a decent week.

Pitcher of the Week - SP Kyle Kendrick: Kendrick pitched the best game of his young career, pitching 8 very strong innings against the A's in which he allowed just 4 hits and 0 runs scored. He was the only pitcher to record a win for the team and this strong outing lowered his ERA to a respectable 4.59 on the season.

Goat of the Week - Entire Offense Not Named Victorino: If you take Vic's numbers out of the equation, the Phillies .174 batting average for the week drops even further to a truly pathetic .159. Leading this slop of an offense were 1B Ryan Howard (.125, 7 K), SS Jimmy Rollins (.125, 5 K), RF Geoff Jenkins (.000 in 14 AB, 6 K) and LF Pat Burrell (.190, 8 K).

Injury Notes: RP Tom Gordon has been day-to-day with a sore shoulder and has not looked good in his last few outings. There is a good possibility that he will go on the DL in the next few days if his shoulder does not improve. He allowed 1 run on 2 hits in his only appearance this week.

Stat of the Week: As a team, the Phillies struck out 52 times in 190 ABs in their past 6 games. That's 27.4% of the time if you're scoring at home.

Why So Taguchi Should Be Released

When the Phillies signed OF So Taguchi this offseason it seemed like an excellent move by GM Pat Gillick to solidify the bench and replace OF Michael Bourn who had just been traded to the Houston Astros. Despite being 38 years old, Taguchi had a reputation as an excellent pinch-hitter and defensive outfielder. He had just come off a very good season as a part-time player for the St. Louis Cardinals and he appeared to be a good fit for the 5th OF role off the bench. However, over the first three months of the season, Taguchi has been, by far, the worst position player on the team and he looks to be done as a professional ballplayer. The gentlemen at Baseball Prospectus predicted this and we all should have too. They wrote, "Taguchi has lost enough steps in the outfield to make him a marginal bench player. He can no longer play a credible center field, and you'd like your corner men to have either more pop or more speed than he does. Released in December, Taguchi was signed by the Phillies, who will use him as a defensive replacement for Pat Burrell and an off-day center fielder for Shane Victorino. They could have done better." The Cardinals knew it, Baseball Prospectus predicted it, and now the Phillies are getting to witness it. So Taguchi, who had a fine career as a Japanese import, is finished. To emphasize, here are his numbers for the past 2 seasons:

2007: 89 of 307 (.290 avg), 3 HR, 30 RBI, 7 of 11 in SB, .350 OBP, .718 OPS
2008: 13 of 63 (.206 avg),--0 HR, 4 RBI,--1 of 1 in SB, .286 OBP,...556 OPS

Even worse are his woes in the field even when compared to the man he is replacing most of the time, LF Pat Burrell.

Pat Burrell (LF) - 592 Inn, 6 Assists, 0 Errors (in 112 chances), 1.000 FPCT, 1.70 RF, .891 ZR
So Taguchi (LF) - 69 Inn, 0 Assists, 2 Errors (in 18 chances), .889 FPCT, 2.09 RF, .800 ZR

Other than a slight advantage in Range Factor, Burrell has actually be far superior to his supposed defensive replacement. Even more disturbing, while Taguchi has only been charged with 2 errors, he has made several more bad reads that have led to runs scoring. When you make Pat Burrell look like a great defensive outfielder, something is very seriously wrong with your game.

So, while its sad to watch the demise of a baseball player, Taguchi is hurting this team with his play. Something needs to be done and it needs to be done soon. Taguchi should be released and the Front Office should start looking at its options.

1. Bring up SS Jason Donald from AA Reading - While Donald is not a one for one replacement for Taguchi as they don't play the same position, he is a versatile IF and he has a good bat and okay speed. Both UT Eric Bruntlett and UT Greg Dobbs can play the corner OF positions credibly so this move would make sense. Donald give Manuel another option off the bench who can spot Feliz, Rollins, or Utley when they need a day off. Donald is a 24 year old Eastern League All-Star who is batting .298 with 9 HR/36 RBI in 66 games played. He has posted a .390 OBP and is 8 for 10 in stolen bases so far this season. He also hits leftys very well batting .322 against them with a .437 OBP/.911 OPS.

2. Sign/Trade for a Veteran Outfielder - There are several guys that could be had rather cheaply or they could even kick the tires on a guy like OF Kenny Lofton. Lofton was a good player even last year at age 40 posting a .296/.367/.781 AVG/OBP/OPS with 38 XBH, 38 RBI, 23 SB and 87 R in 494 AB. Lofton has reportedly turned down offers from both TB and CWS to play because of the money offered and left the Phillies on a somewhat bad note after his one year stay with the organization but he could still help a ballclub with is abilities.

Either option would be better than the current status quo and something needs to be done.

Monday, June 23, 2008

Minor League Spotlight - SP Carlos Carrasco


The cupboard is pretty bare for the Philadelphia Phillies farm system but there are still a couple of decent prospects that bear following. AA Reading SP Carlos Carrasco is one of them. Carrasco has been rated as the Phillies top prospect for the past two seasons and with good reason. The young Venezuelan possesses 4 pitches and he is starting to turn the corner this season for the Reading Phillies. Carrasco throws a plus fastball and a plus changeup as well as a slider and curveball. Both the slider and curve are more of show-me pitches at the moment and they sometimes merge into a slurve but his fastball has good velocity (93-95 mph). His change is his out-pitch and it works best when its thrown hard in the low to mid 80's. When his control is on, he is a very tough pitcher to beat. So far this season, he has really gotten a handle on his control. He has shown drastic improvement from last season and he is looking more and more like the #2/#3 pitcher he was projected to be when he signed with the organization at age 18.

So far this year he is off to a very good start in Reading posting an impressive 3.64 ERA in his first 14 starts. His record is a more modest 5-6 but that is more an illustration of poor run support than anything else. Impressively he has struck out 89 batters in 94 IP while walking just 35. This is a vast improvement over his 2007 numbers as seen below:

2007 (AA): 70.1 IP, 49 K (6.27 K/9), 46 BB (5.89 BB/9), 1.07 K/BB
2008 (AA): 94.0 IP, 89 K (8.52 K/9), 35 BB (3.35 BB/9), 2.54 K/BB

You can clearly see huge upswing in his numbers from last year to this season. Carrasco is demonstrating that he is very close to being ready for The Show. Considering the huge holes in the Phillies rotation, that is not a bad thing.

Carrasco just turned 21 this March and he clearly has lots of room to grow. However, considering the poor performances by some of the Phillies rotation, he may have to learn on the job as Kyle Kendrick did last season. I will not be surprised to see him in a Phillies uniform sometime in the second half of the season and almost definitely no later than Spring Training 2009. For now he will continue to polish his game in AA and wait for the Phillies to call.

Saturday, June 21, 2008

It's Now or Never, Brett!


Well, its been one heck of a disappointing season for Brett Myers so far and he goes into tonight's start with a ridiculously pathetic 3-8 record and 5.58 ERA. Luckily for him, the Phillies have no legitimate MLB ready pitchers in their minor-league system or he likely would have already been pulled from the rotation in favor of a fresh arm. On top of his weak performances on the field, he has made a name for himself with his inability to control his emotions on and off the field. He throws temper tantrums when calls don't go his way and destroys both the dugout and clubhouse in apparent violent rages. This 5-year-old girl mentality is not helping his image and suggests that he cannot handle the pressure of pitching every 5th day for a big league club.

Going into the season, Myers was pronounced the #1 starter in the rotation and considered to be the missing piece that would help the Phillies over the hump this year. Instead of acquiring another front-line starter, GM Pat Gillick traded CF Michael Bourn, RP Geoff Geary, and prospect 3B Mike Costanzo for premier closer Brad Lidge. This trade supposedly killed two birds with one stone in acquiring a top of the line Closer and allowed Brett to return to the starting rotation where he had previously been successful. At the time, it appeared to be a brilliant cost-effective move that would allow the Phillies to compete with the best teams in the National League while freeing up money that could be used to pick up more talent at the trade deadline if necessary. Now it appears that SP Brett Myers may need a trade this summer just to give him a change of scenery as he as completely flopped in his return to the rotation.

Several bloggers and Phillies writers have tossed the gauntlet down to Brett and I will now add my voice to the choir. It's now or never Brett. Get out there tonight, shutdown a very good Angels lineup, and give your team a chance to win. Don't throw a fit when a call doesn't go your way. Don't cry to the ump, don't blame yourself and say how angry you are at your effort. Just get your ass out there and pitch. No excuses!

Friday, June 20, 2008

A Salute To Curt Schilling

Curt Schilling announced earlier today that he will undergo season (and likely career) ending surgery on his injured right shoulder. He has been attempting to rehab the shoulder since the early spring when it was determined he suffered a partially torn labrum. While the rehab efforts have strengthened the shoulder substantially, the underlying injury is still there and Curt has been unable to throw off a mound without a substantial level of pain. So likely, Curt's career is over and what a tremendous career it has been. Curt has made a name for himself over the past 15 years as the preeminent big game pitcher of his generation. He led two separate teams to World Series victories and has 3 World Series rings in 4 total appearances. During the regular season he has been no less impressive, winning well over 200 games while playing for the Phillies, Diamondbacks, and Red Sox. He has always been a winner and a dominating right-handed power pitcher. He is also well known for his charitable contributions and strong Christian family values. He put as much effort towards those aspects of his life as he did towards pitching. In support of his Hall of Fame candidacy, I will breakdown his impressive resume even further:
Regular Season: Schilling won an impressive 216 games in the regular season while losing just 146 (WL% .597). His career ERA was almost a full run lower than the league average (3.46 vs. 4.41) and he struck out 3116 in just 3261 IP(8.60 K/9). More impressively he walked just 711 batters in his career. Unlike most power pitchers, he demonstrated outstanding control on top of great velocity. His 4.38 K/BB ratio over the course of his career shows how dominating he was on the mound. You had to swing the bat to get on base with him. He struck out more than 300 batters 3 times in his career and finished 2nd in the Cy Young vote 3 times as well yet they weren't the same 3 seasons as the 300 K years. He posted the best season by a non-Cy Young winner since the invention of the award yet managed to lose to teammate Randy Johnson who posted a truly historic season in 2002. His season score for that season was over 100 points higher than that of the average Cy Young season. He was a 6 time All-Star and he finished in the top 10 for MVP voting twice in his career. He also had 3 2o-win seasons as well.
Postseason: He posted an outstanding 10-2 record in 19 career postseason starts with a 2.23 ERA in 133.1 IP. He struck out 120 batters while walking just 25. As stated earlier, he won the World Series 3 times with 2 different teams and started a World Series game for 3 separate teams starting all the way back in 1993 with the Philadelphia Phillies. He carried seemingly cursed Red Sox team to its first championship in 86 years while pitching on one leg. He opted to have his ligaments sutured to bone of his foot rather than opt for season-ending surgery. The resulting "Bloody Sock" game is already legendary and it simply demonstrates what a team player Curt was. He risked his career to help lead the Red Sox to victory in 2004.
2005-2007: He was never really the same after that 2004 season. In 2005, he struggled as result of his prior injuries and posted a career worst 5.69 ERA in just 11 starts. However he bounced back and found ways to win despite a drop in velocity. No longer a power pitcher he still won with shocking regularity in the final two seasons of his career. He posted a 24-15 record in 55 starts those two seasons along with an impressive 3.93 ERA.
Some of his numbers (especially his career win total) don't necessarily scream Hall of Fame but he should easily make it in. He dominated his opponents in big games and always rose to the occasion. He was a winner over the course of his career and in his peak seasons, he was one of the best in the game.

Weekly Awards

After a one week hiatus (hey if Chase Utley can take a week off so can I), its time for the Weekly Awards again. It's been a rough week as the Phillies have managed to lose 3 straight series against good competition and the offense has played a disappearing act at times while also putting up 20 runs on other days. SP Brett Myers continues to confound even the most optimistic of his supporters with his pathetic performance so far this year. He was publicly blasted in the Philadelphia Inquirer today by columnist Jim Salisbury. Salisbury is merely echoing the thoughts that several other Phillies fans (including this blogger) have been expressing for weeks now as Brett continues to struggle.

Benson Update: SP Kris Benson was knocked out early in his latest rehab start in Clearwater and he looks to be a very long way from the Majors right now. Benson lasted just 2 innings, allowing 5 ERs on 3 hits (all HRs). He did manage to strike 3 batters as the sole silver lining for the outing.

Injury Update: OF Greg Golson was placed on the 15 day DL with a sore wrist earlier in the week. Golson had been slumping for 10 games prior to the DL trip in which he hit well below the Mendoza Line posting a .132 avg with just 5 hits in 38 ABs. Hopefully the slump was injury related and not a sign of him reverting to his previous seasons' form.

And now time for the Weekly Awards:

Player of the Week - 1B Ryan Howard: Howard has redefined the phrase "feast or famine" with last week's performance. He led the team in almost every offensive category posting a very impressive line of: 10 of 26 (.385), 7 R, 1 2B, 1 3B, 4 HR, 25 TB, 14 RBI, .448 OBP, .962 SLG, 1.410 OPS. However he did strike out 11 times in 6 games including a grisly 4 K performance Wednesday against the Red Sox. He is still on pace to shatter his own single season SO record with 223 projected Ks this year.

Pitcher of the Week - SP Cole Hamels: Hamels made pitching look easy with his dominating performance against the defending World Series champion Boston Red Sox. He pitched 7 strong inning allowing just 2 runs both on solo HRs and struck out 5 in his only appearance. He proved that the Phillies can hang with the best team in baseball as long as they have their Ace on the mound. His record improved to 7-4 with the victory.

Honorary Mention - Phillies Bullpen: The Phillies have had the best bullpen in baseball all season and last week was no exception to this rule. Their combined line for the week: 19 IP, 15 H, 3 ER, 0 HR, 3 BB, 23 K, 1.42 ERA, 0.95 WHIP

Goat of the Week - SP Brett Myers: This could very easily have been Chase Utley (who is in the midst of a career high 0-20 slump) but a team can win without one hitter but they cannot win when their starting pitcher doesn't give them at least a shot at a game. Brett failed to do that on Sunday and because of that he earns top billing this week as the Goat. His line was a pathetic 6 IP, 8 H, 6 ER, 2 HR, 9.00 ERA.

Friday, June 13, 2008

A Tale of Two Bretts

So Brett Myers has pretty much been the most disappointing player on the 2008 Philadelphia Phillies. I had very high hopes for him coming into the season after a very strong Spring Training and his being named Opening Day starter by Manager Charlie Manuel. In the course of the first 2.5 months of the season, Brett has pretty much managed to shatter all of those hopes and destroy any remaining reputation he had of being a legit starter in the Majors. Harsh words yes but true nonetheless. Myers has had a truly dismal start to his season and after 14 starts its getting to the point where it is quite obvious that this is not a slump or bad stretch. He is no longer the pitcher he was earlier in his career or even last season in the bullpen. If you look at his numbers, you would assume that he has been completely ineffective this year and you would also probably question the sanity of the Phillies Front Office that keeps sending him out there every 5th day to pitch. However, if you dig slightly deeper, you'll see a very odd and unexplainable trend. Simply put, Brett Myers cannot pitch effectively outside Citizens Bank Park. His Home/Road splits are phenomenal. At home, he appears to be the top of the rotation starter that he is billed as. On the road, he looks as if he wandered out of the stands before the start of the game and was given a uniform and told to pitch that night.

Home: 7 GS, 3.66 ERA, 3-2 record, 46.2 IPs, 37 H, 22 R, 19 ER, 8 HR, 18 BB, 50 K, .215 BAA
Road: 7 GS,. 7.32 ERA, 0-6 record, 39.1 IPs, 59 H, 33 R, 32 ER, 10 HR, 20 BB, 26 K, .353 BAA

As you can see, the splits aren't even close. His ERA is 3.7 runs higher on the road and the opposing team turns into a bunch of Ty Cobbs batting .353 against him. Myers has done better at home for 3 straight seasons now despite playing in one of the most hitter-friendly parks in all of baseball, but the split has never been this extreme. For instance if you look at 2006 and 2007, you'll see similar splits in his ERA but not nearly as large a gap:

2006

Home: 3.73 ERA, .233 BAA
Road: 4.06 ERA, .277 BAA

2007

Home: 3.76 ERA, .209 BAA
Road: 5.04 ERA, .262 BAA

Again, there is no real explanation for the splits due to any type of park effect. Its clearly a mental issue with him. He simply pitches much better at home than on the road. A lot of players do better at home and Brett is hardly unusual for being one of them. He is unique, however, in the huge gap of his splits.

So what could it be? Is it mental? Does he simply feel comfortable on the mound at CBP? Does he get more pumped by the home fans? Whatever the explanation, he is absolutely killing the Phillies when he starts on the road this year and they cannot continue to pitch him every 5 days if he's gonna give up 7 or 8 runs in a road game. They won't win many of his starts doing that.

Myers has to figure out what is wrong with him and figure it out fast or the Phillies will not be able to make a run into the playoffs.

Friday, June 6, 2008

Weekly Awards

Player of the Week - 2B Chase Utley: Utley was bored this past week so he decided to homer in 5 straight games for the second time this season. With his hot start this season he has thrown his name in the hat for discussion as one of the best players in all of baseball and clearly the best 2B in the game today. The Phillies are extremely lucky to have such a star play for them everyday. The most special part of Utley is his work ethic and will to win. When Utley was first drafted, even his most optimistic supporters did not project him to do this well. Most projected him as a utility infielder or even a platoon-type player who couldn't hit leftys. Now he hits leftys at least as well as rights and he has gone from being much below average defensively to a top 5 defender at his position. All in all, he is a true superstar. That said, he had a very strong week leading the Phillies with 4 HRs and a .360 avg in 7 games. He went 9 for 25 with 7 Rs and 7 RBI for the week and even chipped in with 1 SB. He posted a very impressive 1.328 OPS as well.

Pitcher of the Week - CP Brad Lidge: You can't win games without a great bullpen and Brad Lidge has anchored one of the best bullpens in the majors all season. This week was no exception as Brad picked up 3 saves in 3 opportunities without allowing a single run. He allowed 1 hit in 3 IPs and struck out 4. Right now the Lidge trade is looking to be the finest move of the Gillick regime.

Goat of the Week - SS Jimmy Rollins: Jimmy has been dogging it recently and was actually benched by manager Charlie Manuel for failing to run out a pop-out in yesterday's game against the Cincinnati Reds. Hopefully Charlie was able to knock some sense into the reigning MVP. This behavior is quite uncharacteristic for the star SS and team leader and hopefully he turns it around in short order. His line for the week: 7 G, .185 avg (5 for 27), 2 RBI, 2 SOs, .222 SLG, .407 OPS.

Tuesday, June 3, 2008

5 In A Row!

That's 5 straight games with a HR by 2B Chase Utley. Granted these little HR streaks are getting boring as Utley has now accomplished this same feat twice this year but its still impressive. Oh, in other news, the Phillies won 5-4 and are still in 1st place in the NL East.

Sunday, June 1, 2008

Minor League Awards

It's time for the monthly awards again starting with the Phillies minor league system. Its been an up and down month for the Phillies farm system. The IronPigs have turned it around and are now playing like a respectable ball club. Another good month like this last one and they'll likely be out of last place. Several top prospects have stumbled including SP Andrew Carpenter who was just demoted from AA Reading down to A+ Clearwater. SP Antonio Bastardo (AA) has been so-so since his promotion to Reading and he no longer appears to be the uber-prospect he seemed in Clearwater. To anyone who knows his stuff, this is not a surprise. Still, there is hope that he will make something of himself and become a contributor at the Major League level in the next few years. At the AAA level, C Jason Jaramillo has turned it around and he is now sporting a much more respectable .240's batting average after a dreadful start. Due to his age, 28 this year, he appears to be trade bait to a team needing a good backup this summer. That said, its time for the awards:

Monthly Awards:

Minor League Player of the Month - C Lou Marson: Marson may have solidified his spot as the top position prospect in the Phillies organization with a truly awesome performance this month. He batted .394 (37 of 94) for the month with 24 RBIs and 2o runs scored. He picked up 10 extra-base hits (8 2Bs, 2 HR) in the process and walked more than he struck out (20BBs vs. 17 SOs). Most impressively, he posted a .500 OBP for the month along with a 1.043 OPS. He is also finally getting national attention appearing on Baseball Prospectus' Hot Sheet this month. At this point, Marson looks to be the catcher of the future for the Phillies and he could turn into a real star.

Minor League Pitcher of the Month - LHP R.J. Swindle: Despite not having a 90 MPH fastball, Swindle continues to post very impressive numbers at every level of the minors and this month was no exception. In 9 appearances, Swindle pitched 12 1/3 innings giving up 1 earned run for a 0.73 ERA. He has allowed just 6 hits for the month and exhibited his trademark of excellent control with 13 Ks and just 1 BB. Despite his unorthodox stuff, the Phillies are running out of excuses of why not to promote Swindle to the Show.

Honorable Mention:

OF Greg Golson (AA): Golson had another strong month in Reading and it appears his projected power is starting to appear. After hitting just 2 HRs in all of April, he hit 5 for the month of May. He also had another strong month with a .336 avg and 8 SBs. He still needs a lot of work on his plate discipline (35 SOs vs. 5 BBs) however and he is not ready for the Show yet. Still, he is showing some very positive signs.

2B Adrian Cardenas (A+): Cardenas had a strong month back from an early season injury. He went 21 of 65 (.323) at the plate along with 10 extra-base hits (3 2Bs, 3 3Bs, 4 HRs). He also showed great plate discipline (11 BBs vs. 9 SOs) and he appears to be another great position prospect in the Phillies system.

SP Drew Naylor (A): The Phillies top Aussie prospect posted another strong month for the Lakewood BlueClaws (A) going 3-0 with a 3.11 ERA. He struck out 39 in 37 1/3 innings pitched. He also exhibited good control walking just 8 batters on the month. Naylor will likely be promoted to Clearwater shortly after the upcoming amateur draft.