Thoughts On The Off-Season

Well, now that we got that pesky World Series thing out of the way, its time to look at the Phillies issues and concerns going into the 2009 season.

Key Free Agents:

LF Pat Burrell - Will Pat resign with Philly? Does the team want him back? I think both questions can have a "Yes" answer but it will come down to what Pat's demands are. If Pat asks for 4 years, $10-15 million per year, then I don't see him back. If he asks for half that (i.e. 2 years, $10 million per, that could happen. Burrell loves playing in Philly. He's never played anywhere else and Citizen's Bank Park benefits Pat both defensively and offensively. Like Manny in Boston, Pat is uniquely suited to playing LF in Philadelphia. Besides which, the fans have finally come around on Pat and he is one of the most respected players on the team.

SP Jamie Moyer - Is this it for the old man? I made a prediction that Jamie would retire if and when the Phillies won the World Series. One of the few things lacking on Jamie's resume was a World Series ring and he took care of that in fine fashion this week. Moyer is 45 going on 46 and he just finished up one of the best seasons ever for a pitcher that age. For a non-knuckler, it could arguably be the best season outside of a Nolan Ryan/Satchel Paige effort. Jamie has made some waves about coming back next year but he is technically not under contract anymore. If he plays next year, it will almost certainly be in Philly. He'd probably cost somewhere in the $5 million range and that is eminently reasonable in a world where Adam Eaton and Carlos Silva both make that much or more. He led the team in wins and had a very respectable ERA at age 45. There is no reason to expect he can't do the same next season. Even if he can't perform on the field, his presence on the pitching staff is invaluable. I say push to bring him back.

Arbitration:

1B Ryan Howard - Howard is, of course, arbitration eligible again. Last season he asked for $10 million and we offered around $6 million. Ryan shattered the old record with his win in arbitration and then promptly went out and hit 48 HRs and drove in over 140 RBIs. Granted his batting average was a little low and he still struck out a ton, but there is no denying that he earned his salary this year. That said, he's likely gonna want another good raise. Consider that Detroit 1B Miguel Cabrera just signed a long-term deal that averaged $18 million per season. Howard and his agent will likely use that as the basis for any contract or arbitration discussion. So figure on Howard asking for $18 million and the Phillies offering $12-14 million. I predict another Phillies loss in that situation. Howard may very well have a 2nd MVP trophy on his mantle by any potential arbitration hearing too. That will definitely color and arbiter's decision. The Phillies will pull out his defense, strikeout totals, average against lefties, etc etc. Howard will simply point at his Rookie of the Year, 2 MVPs and World Series ring. Who do you think comes out on top?

SP Cole Hamels - So yeah, Hamels is gonna make a killing in arbitration and the next General Manager would be better off simply bending over now and taking it from Cole's agent. You have the best young lefty in the game coming off a season in which he led his team to their first World Series victory in 28 years. A World Series and playoffs in which he was an MVP twice over. Hamels went from a "Good Young Pitcher" to "Clutch Ace Pitcher" in three and a half weeks of October baseball. The Phillies should (and likely will) open the vault door for him. I predict a monster deal that averages $15-20 million over 5-6 years at a minimum. Cole is truly a special player and the type of player you lock up.

SP Joe Blanton - The Phillies seemed to pay a steep price tradewise for the surprisingly young (just 27) Joe Blanton. What most Phans ignored was that Joe was indeed a young player. I, for one, supported the Blanton trade from the start and I was not disappointed by his effort as a Phillie. He's still undefeated as a Starter in the NL and apparently he's not half bad with the lumber either. Expect the Bulldog to pocket something in the $5-8 million range this winter in arbitration. He's a very solid #4 starter and he's worth every penny. At his best he can shut down the opposing team (See Game 4), at his worst he eats innings and keeps his team in it usually. He even seems to like playing in Philly so you have that as well.

CF Shane Victorino - Vic is making close to the league minimum right now and he will easily become a millionaire at the arbitration table. I predict that Vic and the Front Office will come to terms before arbitration though. Vic really blossomed as a full-time player this season despite switching positions. He led the team in batting average and continued to swipe bases. Despite the ocasional bonehead play, Vic played hard for the entire season and provided the team with an important sparkplug. His 13 RBIs in the playoffs were a team record. I see the Phillies trying to lock Vic up through his arbitration years. He's a very good young player who compliments this lineup perfectly.

RF Jayson Werth - Jayson proved that he is more than a platoon player this season. He was healthy for the first time in his career and his power and on-base numbers soared as a result. He also showed great speed in the outfield and on the bases as well as a plus arm. Jayson will also get a good raise this winter.

RP Ryan Madson & Chad Durbin - Both provided key anchors to the best bullpen in baseball and both will be brought back. Madson transformed himself from a decent middle reliever to an elite setup man courtesy of a new workout regimen due to Jamie Moyer's influence. Durbin carried the bullpen in his middle relief role for the first 4.5 months. Both will be back and both will be more expensive.

UT Greg Dobbs, UT Eric Bruntlett, & RP Clay Condrey - Of the three I see Dobbs back in his 3B platoon/pitch-hit extraordinaire role but I wonder about Bruntlett and Condrey. Both are eminently replacable. SS Jason Donald will be pushing Bruntlett for a roster spot come spring and Condrey will have to fight for the final bullpen spot. Dobbs will get a decent but not huge raise but the other two will not get much of anything.

Spare Parts:

SP Adam Eaton - We're lucky in the fact that Adam will make around $8 million no matter what happens next year. He'll also get a World Series ring somehow. Either way, he likely won't be back next year. They may give him a Spring Training invite but the smart move would be to eat it on his contract and simply outright release him. Eaton was a mistake signing. The Front Office knows it, the team knows it, we the fans know it and even Adam knows it. His performance, outside of a brief stretch of respectability in June, was atrocious.

SP Kyle Kendrick - Kyle's numbers screamed correction for 2008 and we were not let down. He declined in all aspects of the game and showed himself to be a very borderline major leaguer. He only has one decent pitch in his slider and the rest is a work in progress. If he ever learns to throw a changeup, he might have another shot at the Majors. Till then, he's AAA fodder. Considering some of the young pitching prospects currently in the system, Kendrick could soon find himself a career IronPig.

Likely Gone in 09:

RP Rudy Seanez, RP Clay Condrey, RP Les Walrond, RP Scott Eyre*, OF So Taguchi, OF Matt Stairs, C Chris Coste - Seanez, Condrey, and Walrond are all interchangeable parts. I see Walrond staying around as a AAA starter as he is more of a AAAA player at best. Eyre might cost too much to come back (see below). Taguchi didn't really contribute much of anything the entire year so there is no reason whatsoever to expect him back. He's also winding down as an MLBer. The same can be said for Stairs though he will be able to go out on his own terms. Stairs will play in 09 if he wants to. I predict a retirement (and free drinks at any Philly bar for the rest of his life) for Matt Stairs. He solidified himself in Phillies Lore with under two months of effort. Coste will likely get pushed out due to his increasing age and hotshot young catching prospect Lou Marson.

Newcomers for 09:

SP J.A. Happ, C Lou Marson, SS/UT Jason Donald, SP Carlos Carrasco.


My prediction is that guys like Eyre and Stairs MIGHT be back but I wouldn't count on it. Stairs could very well retire as he's already 40 and now is a World Series winner. Eyre provided a great effort down the stretch as the perfect LOOGY and compliment to premier lefty reliever J.C. Romero. To get him back we might have to pay more than we're willing to spend. Donald is currently working at several different IF positions in the Arizona Fall League and he has the range to play 2B, 3B, and SS in the majors. I predict he's in and Bruntlett is out. Carrasco will continue to complete his skills in AAA and will be the first guy called up in case of injury. Happ isn't so much of a newcomer as 2009 will technically be his 3rd season on the Phillies. However, he's still a rookie and he has proven that he has the stuff to be a decent starter for the Phillies. I see him winning the #5 spot out of Spring Training.