Some Thoughts On Raul Ibanez

Now that the dust has settled a bit after the Phillies somewhat surprising acquisition of another left-handed bat in LF Raul Ibanez, we can step back from the ledge and look at this deal with a little bit more clarity. It's beginning to be clear that the Phillies simply weren't interested in bring back long-time Phillie Pat Burrell. As Burrell was apparently not an option, the list of acceptable LF options was quite slim. Out of the players available (Manny Ramirez, Adam Dunn, Raul Ibanez, Bobby Abreu, Ken Griffey Jr, Garret Anderson, Juan Rivera), Ibanez was definitely near the top of the list just after Manny. Raul has his downsides and they appear to be vast on paper. He's 36 going on 37, below average defensively and he doesn't hit leftys very well if you look at his career numbers. However, he hits for good average, hits over .300 for his career with runners in scoring position, crushes rightys and he has been very durable over the past several years. Defensively, switching from Burrell to Ibanez is a wash. Neither is gonna be lugging home a Gold Glove anytime soon. Ibanez hits for slightly less power but higher average than Pat and he's gonna strike out a bit less. With Utley, Howard, and Werth already in our lineup, Burrell's power won't be missed nearly as much as we all fear. Having a good, high-average bat in the middle of the lineup could actually dramatically increase our offensive performance. Think of it as switching from a V8 that tends to stall out every so often to a much more reliable V6 that chugs along day after day. Ibanez and his higher batting average could be just the thing our offense has been looking for. It all depends on where he bats in the lineup. I've had this discussion several times over the past week or so and I've thrown out all sorts of wacky lineups that manage to avoid the much feared Utley/Howard/Ibanez lefty trifecta at the heart of the lineup. As fun as it would be to do that, there are easy solutions that avoid it. We could use either of the following lineups:

SS Jimmy Rollins
RF Jayson Werth
2B Chase Utley
1B Ryan Howard
CF Shane Victorino
LF Raul Ibanez
3B Pedro Feliz
C Carlos Ruiz

OR

SS Jimmy Rollins
CF Shane Victorino
2B Chase Utley
1B Ryan Howard
RF Jayson Werth
LF Raul Ibanez
3B Pedro Feliz
C Carlos Ruiz

Both of the above lineups avoid the dreaded TRI-LOOGY scenario and both offer their advantages. Both Werth and Victorino had coming out parties in 2008 that proved conclusively that they are great complimentary players to have on a team. Both have very good speed and both are tough outs at the plate. Vic offers blazing speed and an ability to turn a single or a walk into a double with his legs. Vic led the team in batting average and showed good power numbers for a centerfielder. Granted he's not your prototypical # 5 hitter but he could serve as a plate setter for the bottom half of the lineup. Having him bat in front of Ibanez in the 6-hole could very well give Ibanez a ton of RBI opportunities. Putting Jayson Werth in the 5-hole is a more traditional approach. Werth has flashed some impressive power, particularly against left-handed pitching which he absolutely kills. He takes a lot of pitches, knows how to get on base and has gotten better every year he's been a regular. He has below-average power against right-handed pitching but he still gets on base at a very good clip because of his excellent pitch recognition (.360 OBP against rightys in 2008). Having Werth in the 5-hole allows Victorino to stay at the top of the lineup acting as a second leadoff guy behind SS Jimmy Rollins. Either way, its not as bad a situation as it appears to be at first glance.

Another thought to consider when looking at Ibanez's 3 year contract is the imminent arrival of some potentially very good right-handed bats to balance the lineup in 2010 and 2011. Hopefully, both Jason Donald and Lou Marson will be regulars at 3B and C respectively and will provide for a very balanced lineup from 1-8. Donald has gotten a good number of reps at 3B in the Arizona Fall League and he is almost certain to get a good amount of time at that position next year as they prep him to take over for Pedro Feliz at the hot corner. C Lou Marson shot up the prospect lists with another huge step forward in 2008. Marson doesn't show any real power at the plate but he possesses excellent strike-zone recognition and he get's on-base at a very impressive pace. Between the two of them, the Phillies will have less issues from the right side of the plate than most people think.

Other than the apparent lefty-heavy lineup, the greatest argument against the signing is his advanced age of 36 (37 in June 2009) and the length of his contract (signed through Age 39). Ibanez has been a very late bloomer and he has shown remarkable consistency throughout his mid-30's. So far, he hasn't shown any signs of decline. However, when a decline does come, it usually comes fast and we shouldn't be too surprised if Ibanez is ineffective or needs to be platooned for the final year of this deal. However, considering his contract is not too onerous at just over $10 million per year, it won't be worse or even comparable to the dead money invested in guys like Adam Eaton or Geoff Jenkins this upcoming season. It won't hamstring us too greatly from signing players that need to be signed or in locking up guys like Ryan Howard and Cole Hamels in long-term deals.

So, in closing, I will go out on a long, thin limb and boldly predict that Raul Ibanez will have a better 2009 and 2010 than Pat Burrell. I will gladly revisit this comment this time next year but I highly doubt I will be wrong. Personally, I think Raul Ibanez could very well be exactly what our lineup needs and I think all those that criticized this signing will look quite silly for the next couple seasons.

Dick Allen Snubbed Again

Dick Allen was never the most loved player, teammate or even human being. However, he was one of the premier power hitters of the 1960's and early 1970's. Dick Allen broke into the majors as the Phillies first African-American star (It took the Phillies 10 years to even have an African-American player on the roster, let alone a star like Allen) and faced a constant stream of racial bigotry in that role. The Phillies and Philadelphia were long known for their racial attitudes and Allen faced the brunt of it throughout the first part of his career. Allen debuted in September 1963, a mere 16 years after Jackie Robinson broke the color barrier with the Brooklyn Dodgers. Ken Burns wrote the following comment concerning Robinson's first appearance in Philadelphia, where Robinson received hundreds of death threats, unrelenting abuse from the crowd and constant racial epitaphs: On April 22, 1947, during a game between the Dodgers and Philadelphia Phillies, Phillies players called Jackie a "nigger" from their dugout and yelled that he should "go back to the cotton fields." Branch Rickey would later recall that Phillies manager Ben Chapman"did more than anybody to unite the Dodgers. When he poured out that string of unconscionable abuse, he solidified and united thirty men." So, with that history, it was no surpise that Dick Allen faced similar abuse as the Phillies first African American star. The saddest and most telling commentary on the racial issues of the Phillies of that time was that it took over 10 years between Jackie Robinson's debut and Phillies breaking their own self-imposed color barrier.

It was in this type of divisive atmosphere that Allen cut his teeth as a Major Leaguer. Dick Allen was born in raised in rural Pennsylvania in the 40's and 50's. To those that don't know, rural Pennsylvania is/was probably more racially divided than the Deep South. Considering that atmosphere, it is no surprise that Allen always had a certain defensiveness about him. It is no surprise that he was crucified in the press for his supposed bad attitude. To understand this phenomenon, merely look at the difference in treatment of Roger Clemens versus Barry Bonds. Sure, both are guilty as sin, but it took far longer for the public to nail Rocket to the cross than Bonds. Consider that background when looking at Allen's accomplishments on the field and his personal issues off it.

In an era dominated by pitching, Allen was a beast at the plate. His career numbers are some of the highest of any player not in the Hall of Fame. In over 14 seasons, he batted .292 with a .378 OBP and .534 SLG. Consider the fact that he posted a .912 OPS in an era dominated by guys like Bob Gibson, Sandy Koufax, and Steve Carlton. He managed to chip in 351 homeruns and knock in 1,152 runs along with a career OPS+ of 156 (good for 19th all-time). For reference, his OPS+ is the same as Willy Mays and better than guys like Joe DiMaggio, Manny Ramirez, and Frank Robinson.

Allen was the National League Rookie of the Year in 1964, American League Most Valuable Player in 1972 and a seven-time All-Star. Despite all of his prodigious talent and accomplishments on the field, Allen was made a scapegoat off the field. Allen was blamed for the Phillies famous collapse in September 1964 despite hitting a brisk .438 in the team's final 12 games. Allen was considered a trouble maker and was often overshadowed by his supposed personality issues. Despite these accusations, his managers considered him an excellent teammate and a clubhouse leader. Chuck Tanner, his manager on the White Sox made the following telling statement about Allen, "Dick was the leader of our team, the captain, the manager on the field. He took care of the young kids, took them under his wing. And he played every game as if it was his last day on earth."

Looking back with the clarity and distance of nearly 40 years, it is far easier to admire Dick Allen's amazing accomplishments with the bat in a pitcher-dominated era and ignore his personal faults. By the numbers, Dick Allen deserves to be in the Hall of Fame and maybe one day he will make it in by the grace of God and the Veterans Committee.

Tips Cap

Greg Maddux is going to make it official tomorrow. After 23 seasons, he will announce his retirement at a low-key press conference. Phillies fans can be proud that his career numbers against Philadelphia are a good deal worse than his career line. He went 29-20 (.592 W/L %) with a 3.47 ERA in over 400 IP versus Philly. Granted those are pretty good numbers but considering his career line (below), that's not half bad. Either way, its been a pleasure watching you do your thing Greg and good luck with whatever you end up doing after your playing career.



Here's his final career line:

740 GS, 355 W, 227 L, .610 WL%, 5008 IP, 4726 H, 1981 R, 1756 ER, 999 BB, 3371 SO, 3.16 ERA, 132 ERA+, 1.143 WHIP

Congrats Greg. You've had a hell of a career.

That's Lowetastic?

Feel that warmth? That's the hot stove finally kicking on after a long cold month of nothingness. The Phillies are rumored to have made a respectable contract offer to Type A free agent pitcher Derek Lowe. The Phillies have long coveted Derek Lowe and his extreme sinking fastball having previously made a run at signing him after the 2004 season. Lowe has been the definition of consistency since signing with the Dodgers before the 2005 season averaging 34 starts a season in his four years there. Going back to his Boston days, Lowe has started no fewer than 32 games and pitched no less than 182 innings in his past seven seasons. Lowe would be a perfect #2 pitcher behind Ace Cole Hamels and would transform an already good Phillies staff. He would also mean the end of Jamie Moyer's tenure in Philadelphia. Moyer leaving might not be the worst thing in the world considering his age and probable cost next year in his Age 46 season. Lowe will be a youthful 36 next year and still in his prime.

As the offseason started, Lowe was rumored to be looking for a 5 year deal averaging $14-15 million a season for a total contract around the $75 million mark. The Phillies are rumored to have offered a 3 year, $42 million deal according to Foxsports Ken Rosenthal. With the Mets, Yankees, and Red Sox interested in Lowe among others, it is clear that this initial offer won't get it done. While its likely that Lowe won't get his coveted 5th year from any team, he will get a 4 year deal from someone. At the end of the day, I'm gonna go out on a limb and guess he gets something like 4 years, $60-65 million with a possible club option for a 5th year. That's probably his best case scenario considering the economy and his age. Everything depends on what happens with SP CC Sabathia and SS AJ Burnett. If Sabathia ends up with the Yankees (something that looks less likely by the day unfortunately) that would likely make them less interested in pursuing Derek Lowe. If CC Sabathia goes to the Giants or Angels as rumored, then Hal & Hank Steinbrenner might personally drive the dumptruck of cash up to Lowe's house and there will be nothing the Phillies or any other team will be able to do at that point.

Things To Consider:

1. Lowe's Home/Road splits show that he is not nearly as dominant as he appears to be from playing half his games in spacious Dodger stadium. Here are his ERA splits from his time in LA.

YEAR......HOME..........ROAD
2008 -......2.30..............4.42
2007 -......3.51...............4.19
2006 -......3.18...............4.13
2005 -......3.74...............3.48

While his numbers were very good in 2005, his last three seasons show that he is not quite as dominant as he appears to be. Still, its important to consider that he is an extreme groundball pitcher and his style of play is perfectly suited to Citizens Bank Park.

Speaking of his groundball/flyball ratios, here's a rundown of those numbers for the same four seasons.

YEAR.........GB..........FB..........G/F
2008..........390.........150........2.60
2007..........398.........115.........3.46
2006..........487.........122.........3.99
2005..........447.........260.........2.92

Its troubling that 2008 was by far his worst G/F ratio of his career. Still, his 2.60 ratio is one of the best in all of baseball coming in 2nd among NL starters behind Brandon Webb.

One of the reasons Derek Lowe has been so successful since moving to the National League is his ability to keep men off base. He has been among league leaders in Walks + Hits per Innings Pitched (WHIP) in each of the past four seasons:

YEAR...........WHIP
2008.............1.113 (3rd in NL)
2007.............1.269 (12th in NL)
2006.............1.266 (12th in NL)
2005.............1.252 (17th in NL)

All in all, Derek Lowe is not an Ace pitcher. He is a very good pitcher who was miscast in that role while a member of the Dodgers. In the Phillies rotation, he would be a very solid #2 guy and his presence would have a ripple effect on the rest of the rotation and bullpen. He would create better matchups for Myers and Blanton behind him and he would help keep the bullpen well rested. The odds of him signing in Philadelphia are remote at best. He wants to go back to Boston who do not appear too too interested in him. The Yankees are a good possibility as are the Mets. Both have new stadiums, vast amounts of available cash, and a more glaring need than the 2008 World Champs. Still the Hot Stove is about what could be, not what will be and this is as good a topic as any to write about.

If the Phillies are able to sign Lowe to a 4 year deal I, for one, will be very happy with the move and might even get over losing Pat Burrell and Jamie Moyer (who likely wouldn't be back if they bring in Lowe).

Travesty

Ruben Amaro Jr trumped conventional wisdom when he decided to not offer arbitration to free agents SP Jamie Moyer and LF Pat Burrell. Now the Phillies will not get any type of compensation whatsoever if and when they sign with other teams. Now the odds are highly against Jamie Moyer signing with another club but LF Pat Burrell will almost certainly get a long-term deal from a team that needs a right handed hitter who will chip in 30 HRs and close to a .400 OBP. The Angels are said to be interested in Pat as a 1B/DH if they are unable to resign Mark Teixiera. There are several other teams such as the Mariners and Giants who are supposedly interested in him as well. At age 32, Burrell would have almost certainly declined arbitration, hoping for a chance to make one last killing on the free agent market. Even had he accepted, the worst case scenario for the Phillies would have been to keep their long-time leftfielder for one more season while highly touted OF prospects Dominic Brown and Michael Taylor continued to improve in the minors.

By not even offering arbitration, Amaro Jr. has clearly shown that the Phillies will always be about the bottom line first and competing for a championship second. There will be no compensation picks, no fresh talent to help rejuvenate the minor league system. The Phillies, in their infinite wisdom will likely compound this moronic decision by signing another team's Type A free agent who was actually offered arbitration so they can not only not recoup comp picks for Burrell but also sacrifice their own 1st round pick. Coming off a World Series victory, flush with cash from record attendance and record ticket sales, the Phillies have no motivation to reinvest that money in their on-field product. These moves merely reinforce the reality of the situation. Now that outsider Pat Gillick is gone, the ultimate yes-man is GM. So Ruben, pretty please with sugar on top, GO PHUCK YOURSELF!!!