Phillies Lock Up Werth

At this point I don't know what to think about Ruben Amaro Jr. As an ardent basher of Amaro since his days under Ed Wade, I have constantly criticized even the smallest moves by him. This week, Amaro is starting to prove why he was selected to be Pat Gillick's replacement. What was just recently described as a minefield for the Phillies has been quickly and efficiently cleared by the new GM. Amaro has not only been able to quickly avoid arbitration with every eligible player other than 1B Ryan Howard, he has done so with the minimum of long-term cost.

Most impressively, the Phillies signed RF Jayson Werth to a 2 year, $10 million deal. Werth will make $3 million in 2009 and $7 million in 2010. This deal avoids arbitration, keeps Werth in RF through his peak years, and give the Front Office cost certaintly when they need it most. Werth could have possibly gone out in 09, had a great year, and significantly increase a potential payday through Free Agency next fall. He chose the safer, more certain route and took the guaranteed money. The Phillies will have very few holes to fill in 2010 thanks to locking up guys like Werth and reliever Ryan Madson. Pedro Feliz will be gone but could very possibly be replaced by prospect Jason Donald. Brett Myers will be a free agent but guys like Carlos Carrasco and Kyle Drabek could very well be knocking at the door next fall.

All in all, its been a pretty solid off-season for the Phillies. They've kept the core together, vastly increased payroll, and not hamstrung themselves long-term. So far, so good.

Revised Off-Season Grade for Rube

Last week I blithely gave Rube a C- so far for his off-season efforts to improve the Phillies roster. However, much has changed since that grading. Perhaps Rube is an ardent reader (doubtful) and perhaps he is finally able to show all of us what was reputed to be his strength all along...contracts and negotiation. He has been able to lock up two keys in our World Series victory by signing both RP Ryan Madson and SP Cole Hamels to separate 3 year deals. Madson will now make $12 million over the length of that contract and has given up two years of free agency for guaranteed money. Hamels gave the Phillies some level of cost certainty by forgoing the arbitration process and signing for $20.5 million over the next 3 seasons. Hamels will have one year of arbitration after this new contract expires but he has demonstrated a clear desire to stay in Philly and be part of a winning franchise. Rube was also able to avoid arbitration with Shane Victorino and Joe Blanton for $3.15 and $5.475 million respectively. All of these are good, fair deals that will help the Phillies compete for the next couple years. The Phillies have been able to guarantee a stable bullpen and have rewarded their young Ace for his monumental playoff performance.

That said, I hereby raise Rube's grade a whole letter from C- to B-. If Rube is able to win arbitration against Howard, and/or sign another big piece like a Ben Sheets, he will get another raise into the B+/A- range.

All in all a good week for Rube.

Howard's Millions

Is Ryan Howard worth $18 million a year? Honestly, is anyone worth $18 million a year? The answer to both questions is a resounding NO! The real question is this: Will Ryan Howard make $18 million in 2009? The answer to that question is far more uncertain. Howard and the Phillies Front Office exchange arbitration numbers today and to nobody's surprise, Howard requested a ridiculous amount of money despite continuing his decline from his monumental 2006 MVP campaign. About the only thing Howard did as well as in 2007 is hit HRs and drive men in. In every other aspect of the game from batting average to defense at first base, Howard got worse. The question now is whether or not his decline is worth either an 80% pay raise or only a 40% raise.

Its looking more and more as if Ryan Howard will never sign a long-term deal with the Philadelphia Phillies. The recent signings of core players like SP Cole Hamels and RP Ryan Madson merely reinforces this belief. The Phillies don't see Howard as deserving of AROD money or even Jeter money and Howard won't accept anything less than that. Because of this impasse, Howard will almost certainly not finish out his arbitration years in Philadelphia. If the Phillies are able to succeed in winning this year's arbitration hearing, Howard could very well be here a couple more years as he will still be somewhat affordable. If the Phillies are forced to payout $18 million this year and God knows how much in 2010 (maybe $22 million?) then Howard will soon find himself in a new city wearing a different uniform. As Howard is one of the most prodigious sluggers to ever wear red pinstripes, this will be ashame. However, there is almost no way the Phillies would be willing to resign him for that type of money, especially when almost every metric shows that Howard either is or soon will be entering the decline phase of his career.

Ryan Howard has the misfortune of getting off to a late start for a variety of reasons. The biggest reason of course being veteran Jim Thome blocking him at 1B for almost a 1.5 seasons. As a college draft pick, he also got off to a late start. Thus, he is entering his Age 29 season and has yet to see Free Agency and won't see it till the ripe old age of 32. That being said, I cannot pass judgment on or blame a guy in his position for trying to make as much money as he possibly can in what will likely be a short career.

The bottom line is that Ryan Howard and the Phillies Front Office have goals that cannot and will not co-exist and because of this conflict, Howard will be gone at some point in the next few years. My gut tells me that Howard overreached in his request for $18 million and that he will likely "lose" his arbitration hearing. The silver lining for Howard is that by "losing" he will still get a 40% raise over last year. We should all be so lucky.

Oh...and one final thing: WORLD FVCKING CHAMPIONS!!!

That's Lowetastic?

Feel that warmth? That's the hot stove finally kicking on after a long cold month of nothingness. The Phillies are rumored to have made a respectable contract offer to Type A free agent pitcher Derek Lowe. The Phillies have long coveted Derek Lowe and his extreme sinking fastball having previously made a run at signing him after the 2004 season. Lowe has been the definition of consistency since signing with the Dodgers before the 2005 season averaging 34 starts a season in his four years there. Going back to his Boston days, Lowe has started no fewer than 32 games and pitched no less than 182 innings in his past seven seasons. Lowe would be a perfect #2 pitcher behind Ace Cole Hamels and would transform an already good Phillies staff. He would also mean the end of Jamie Moyer's tenure in Philadelphia. Moyer leaving might not be the worst thing in the world considering his age and probable cost next year in his Age 46 season. Lowe will be a youthful 36 next year and still in his prime.

As the offseason started, Lowe was rumored to be looking for a 5 year deal averaging $14-15 million a season for a total contract around the $75 million mark. The Phillies are rumored to have offered a 3 year, $42 million deal according to Foxsports Ken Rosenthal. With the Mets, Yankees, and Red Sox interested in Lowe among others, it is clear that this initial offer won't get it done. While its likely that Lowe won't get his coveted 5th year from any team, he will get a 4 year deal from someone. At the end of the day, I'm gonna go out on a limb and guess he gets something like 4 years, $60-65 million with a possible club option for a 5th year. That's probably his best case scenario considering the economy and his age. Everything depends on what happens with SP CC Sabathia and SS AJ Burnett. If Sabathia ends up with the Yankees (something that looks less likely by the day unfortunately) that would likely make them less interested in pursuing Derek Lowe. If CC Sabathia goes to the Giants or Angels as rumored, then Hal & Hank Steinbrenner might personally drive the dumptruck of cash up to Lowe's house and there will be nothing the Phillies or any other team will be able to do at that point.

Things To Consider:

1. Lowe's Home/Road splits show that he is not nearly as dominant as he appears to be from playing half his games in spacious Dodger stadium. Here are his ERA splits from his time in LA.

YEAR......HOME..........ROAD
2008 -......2.30..............4.42
2007 -......3.51...............4.19
2006 -......3.18...............4.13
2005 -......3.74...............3.48

While his numbers were very good in 2005, his last three seasons show that he is not quite as dominant as he appears to be. Still, its important to consider that he is an extreme groundball pitcher and his style of play is perfectly suited to Citizens Bank Park.

Speaking of his groundball/flyball ratios, here's a rundown of those numbers for the same four seasons.

YEAR.........GB..........FB..........G/F
2008..........390.........150........2.60
2007..........398.........115.........3.46
2006..........487.........122.........3.99
2005..........447.........260.........2.92

Its troubling that 2008 was by far his worst G/F ratio of his career. Still, his 2.60 ratio is one of the best in all of baseball coming in 2nd among NL starters behind Brandon Webb.

One of the reasons Derek Lowe has been so successful since moving to the National League is his ability to keep men off base. He has been among league leaders in Walks + Hits per Innings Pitched (WHIP) in each of the past four seasons:

YEAR...........WHIP
2008.............1.113 (3rd in NL)
2007.............1.269 (12th in NL)
2006.............1.266 (12th in NL)
2005.............1.252 (17th in NL)

All in all, Derek Lowe is not an Ace pitcher. He is a very good pitcher who was miscast in that role while a member of the Dodgers. In the Phillies rotation, he would be a very solid #2 guy and his presence would have a ripple effect on the rest of the rotation and bullpen. He would create better matchups for Myers and Blanton behind him and he would help keep the bullpen well rested. The odds of him signing in Philadelphia are remote at best. He wants to go back to Boston who do not appear too too interested in him. The Yankees are a good possibility as are the Mets. Both have new stadiums, vast amounts of available cash, and a more glaring need than the 2008 World Champs. Still the Hot Stove is about what could be, not what will be and this is as good a topic as any to write about.

If the Phillies are able to sign Lowe to a 4 year deal I, for one, will be very happy with the move and might even get over losing Pat Burrell and Jamie Moyer (who likely wouldn't be back if they bring in Lowe).

Why Giving Jamie Moyer A Multi-year Deal Is A Mistake

It started off as a casual conversation about the rumored ongoing negotiations between the Phillies Front Office and SP Jamie Moyer. Most Phillies fans have been clamoring to resign Moyer at any cost. "He's earned it" is the general consensus among even knowledgable fans. The current rumor mill has Moyer asking for a 2 year deal with a possible option year for a 3rd season. The Phillies are said to be offering a 1 year deal with a option for a 2nd season. Moyer turned 46 two weeks ago and there aren't alot of comparable 46 year old pitchers that have had good, or even passable seasons. Off the top of my head, I was able to throw out names like Phil Niekro, Charlie Hough, Satchel Paige, Tommy John, Nolan Ryan and even Hoyt Wilhelm. After a quick jaunt over to Wikipedia, I came up with guys like Jack Quinn, Nick Altrock and Jessie Orosco. Mind you, that's a list of guys that have even pitched a season at age 46, not pitched well. That said, lets look a bit closer at how some of these guys aged from 45 to 46 and even to 47 if they actually pitched at that age (very few did).

Phil Niekro - Niekro was a medical marvel and was amazing for his longevity. This longevity can be laid at his ability to throw knuckleball after knuckleball after knuckleball to opposing hitters. He was also able to put up a respectable line in his Age 46 season.

Age 45: 31 GS, 16-8, 215 IP, 3.09 ERA, 123 ERA+, 1.368 WHIP
Age 46: 33 GS, 16-12, 220 IP, 4.09 ERA, 98 ERA+, 1.468 WHIP
Age 47: 33 GS, 11-11, 210 IP, 4.32 ERA, 96 ERA+, 1.597 WHIP


Niekro was unique in his ability to put up league average seasons at Age 46 and Age 47. He is both a knuckleballer and a Hall of Famer. Moyer is neither of those things. Even with his efforts, there is a clearly discernable decline in Niekro's numbers, especially in his WHIP rate. Niekro was quite hittable in his final two seasons and this brought up his numbers significantly.

Charlie Hough - Hough is another knuckleballer who hung around into the early nineties by pitching for the expansion club Florida Marlins. Hough's claim to fame (and trivia question answer) will be his place as the starting pitcher for the Marlins inaugural home opener. I remember watching that game on television as it was the nationally televised game that week. That being said, Hough suffered a drastic decline in his numbers from Age 45 to Age 46 and he retired after his Age 46 season.

Age 45: 34 GS, 9-14, 204 IP, 4.27 ERA, 100 ERA+, 1.336 WHIP
Age 46: 21 GS, 5-9, 113 IP, 5.15 ERA, 84 ERA+, 1.496 WHIP

As you can see, Hough was done after his Age 45 season in 1993 and it was a huge mistake for him to come back in 1994 for another year. At the time of the strike, he had an ERA in the low 5's and was ineffective at best as a starter.

Satchel Paige - There are a few issues with including Satchel on this list. For one, no one has any idea what his true age was when he entered the Majors. Another issue is that he pitched mainly out of the bullpen despite a small number of spot starts. He is simply a unique player with no comparables. However, here's the breakdown of his numbers:

Age 45: 6 GS, 47 G, 12-10, 138 IP, 3.07 ERA, 127 ERA+, 1.254 WHIP
Age 46: 4 GS, 57 G, 3-9, 117 IP, 3.53 ERA, 119 ERA+, 1.304 WHIP

Paige also retired after his Age 46 season despite a short cameo at Age 58 where he pitched 3 innings for Kansas City in a start that was more publicity than anything else.

Tommy John - TJ is probably more well known to modern baseball fans for his association with the groundbreaking ligament-transplant surgery than his impressive pitching career. TJ pitched in the Majors from 1963-1989. Like most other aging pitchers, he suffered a drastic decline in his numbers from Age 45 to Age 46.

Age 45: 32 GS, 9-8, 176 IP, 4.49 ERA, 89 ERA+, 1.514 WHIP
Age 46: 10 GS, 2-7, 63 IP, 5.80 ERA, 66 ERA+, 1.712 WHIP

TJ was a non-factor in his final season. Considering his extremely high WHIP, his ERA is probably lower than it should be...this despite it being an Adam Eatonesque 5.80.

Nolan Ryan - Nolan is one of my favorite pitchers of all time. Simply put, no one could bring the heat like ol' Ryan. By bringing the heat, I mean his seeming nonchalance at beating Robin Ventura senseless (See Above Picture) when he was dumb enough to charge the mound against this ornery Texan. That said, Nolan was another pitcher who probably should have retired after his Age 45 season.

Age 45: 27 GS, 5-9, 157 IP, 3.72 ERA, 103 ERA+, 1.316 WHIP
Age 46: 13 GS, 5-5, 63 IP, 4.88 ERA, 85 ERA+, 1.417 WHIP

While Ryan's ERA+ was still a somewhat respectable 85, he struggled with injuries in his Age 46 season and was mainly ineffective because of this.

Hoyt Wilhelm - Who the hell is Hoyt Wilhelm? Yeah, that's gonna be alot of people's reactions unless they like obscure Hall of Fame knuckleball-throwing relievers. I remember him simply from his plaque in Cooperstown because of his odd name. Other than that, he was just another name to me. That said, he is on that short list of guys who pitched in the Majors at Age 46. Downside with Hoyt: He was a reliever.

Age 45: 72 G, 4-4, 93 IP, 1.73 ERA, 184 ERA+, 0.993 WHIP
Age 46: 52 G, 7-7, 78 IP, 2.19 ERA, 159 ERA+, 0.923 WHIP
Age 47: 53 G, 6-5, 82 IP, 3.40 ERA, 124 ERA+, 1.402 WHIP

Hoyt was very respectable as a reliever through his Age 47 season. He was also a reliever who relied on the knuckleball. Hoyt also pitched two more seasons retiring at the end of his Age 49 season. Though in those final two seasons, he only chipped in around 20 IP each year.

Out of those six pitchers, four retired after their Age 46 season (Hough, Paige, Ryan, John). Out of those four, only Paige had an above average season at Age 46 and he was a reliever. Phil Niekro and Hoyt Wilhelm both pitched in their Age 47 seasons. However, as I just mentioned, Wilhelm was a specialist reliever. Niekro was the only player mentioned that actually pitched primarily as a starter at Age 47. Niekro is unique in that respect. He even managed to post pretty respectable numbers at Age 47. He posted an ERA+ of 96 (100 is the equivalent of a league-average starter). Out of the four who retired at Age 46, Charlie Hough and Tommy John had ERAs well above 5 and Nolan Ryan came in with a 4.88 ERA. None of those four managed to pitch even close to 200 innings. In fact, Phil Niekro is the only guy in the history of baseball to pitch 200+ innings at Age 46 or Age 47.

What does all this mean? It means that the odds of Jamie Moyer having another above-average season at Age 46 are remote. He beat the odds at Age 45 posting very impressive numbers while he helped the Phillies win their first World Series in 28 years. However, the odds are stacked against him playing out a two-year deal with any level of respectability.

Its probably even money for Moyer to put up a league-average season next year. Niekro did it but then Niekro was a knuckleballer. Like Niekro, Moyer has a unique set of skills and that works in his favor. He doesn't rely on a blazing fastball like Nolan Ryan. He relies on pinpoint control, working the black and fooling young, aggressive hitters. He out thinks his opponent, he doesn't overpower them. If he can stay healthy and keep his stamina, he's got a shot. Staying in baseball shape at age 46 is very hard to do. If Moyer is able to do it, he will be on a very short list of players who have done so.

All Quiet On The Free Agent Front...

Free Agency is now 19 hours old and there is absolutely nothing to report for the Phillies. The Phillies are not expected to be involved in any of the 1st Tier free agents anyway and there has been a Kremlin-like silence from newly appointed GM Ruben Amaro Jr. so far. The Phillies have supposedly alreadly made one attempt to resign LF Pat Burrell just after the season ended. They are also supposedly in serious talks with free agent SP Jamie Moyer. Moyer, coming off of an impressive season in which he had a sub 4.00 ERA and led the team in wins at age 45, is looking for at least a 2 year deal. Shooting from the hip, I'll predict that Moyer signs a 2 year, $14-16 million with a good number of incentives based off innings pitched. Worst case is Moyer completely hits the wall in 09 and we simply have a very expensive 2nd pitching coach. Odds, and any rational statistical analysis, point to Jamie having a decent season in 09 and a further drop-off at age 47 in 2010. Still, considering we got him for free, he'll be worth whatever they end up paying him. Jamie might not have an ERA in the 3.00s again but he's still a very capable starter. Burrell is more of a long-shot to resign but I still see it happening. There hasn't been any buzz whatsoever on Burrell so far. He's a liability defensively and he doesn't like to DH so that limits his options considerably. He's likely a 2nd tier free agent and that will also hurt his marketability during an off-season where the national economic downturn will affect such signings. His best fit is in Philly and both he and the Front Office will likely eventually figure that out. My guess is somewhere around 3 years, $40 million. It could very well end up lower than that in the end if the market for aging LFs really drys up. The Phillies are also rumored to be looking for some cheap bullpen help, so we should expect them to sign some low key veteran relievers to take over the long reliever roles. The key parts of the 'pen are already in place so there won't be any big waves made. The bench is more likely to receive reinforcement internally from prospects like C Lou Marson and SS Jason Donald so I wouldn't expect any major signings in that department either. The Phillies could still stun us with another major Winter trade to fill their LF hole but its a longshot at this point.

Yeah, its a boring off-season so far but we did just win the World Series so I can't complain too much.

That Gaping Hole In Left Field...What To Do?

The Phillies have had the luxury of having a former #1 overall pick entrenched in Left-field for the past nine seasons. Now that #1 pick is a free agent and the Phillies Front Office, under the direction of newly appointed General Manager Ruben Amaro Jr., has its first critical decision to make for the offseason. Since becoming the Phillies starting leftfielder in early 2000, Pat Burrell (pictured right) has been a bulwark for this Phillies team. While he never lived up to the hype and early hopes of his breakout 2002 effort (.282, 37 HR, 116 RBI at age 25), he provided a solid right handed bat in the lineup dominanted by lefties like Utley, Thome, Howard, and Abreu. Burrell was always good for 25-30 HR, 90-100 RBI, a .250-260 AVG, a high OBP, and an OPS+ around 120 every season. He did have his issues: poor range in LF, a horrid 2003 season, a sometimes overly patient approach at the plate, and a poor reputation. These detractors ignored that Pat was always the first to the ballpark on gamedays, has a very accurate arm, and was one of the hardest workers on the team. He is also considered a leader in the clubhouse even if he's never been vocal to the media following the team.

Last month, the Phillies won the 2008 World Series and they did so despite Pat Burrell's 1-14 effort at the plate in five games. Pat did have a huge double in Game 5 that set up the winning run for that clinching game but other than that he was a non-factor in the World Series. Immediately after that World Series victory, the Phillies reportedly offered Pat a 2 year, $22 million deal to remain in Philadelphia for his age 32 and age 33 seasons. This offer was reportedly immediately turned down by the Burrell camp. It is unclear whether or not Pat will be brought back at this point. The Phillies have refused to grant long-term contracts to declining veterans in the past and it is unlikely that they will offer anything more than a 3 year deal. Burrell will likely be offered more years and more money from one of the many teams needing a solid right-handed power bat in their lineup. So this leaves the Phillies with a quandary: What to do with leftfield.

So here are some options for them:

1. Make a Trade - The Phillies have the prospects and players to make a trade of a good outfielder who is a right-handd bat. They have been rumored to be highly interested in LF Matt Holliday of the Colorado Rockies. The price will be very high as Holliday is coming off of a huge season but it will also be a 1 year rental for the Phillies as Holliday is a free agent after 2009 and is also a Scott Boras client. The Phillies won't be able to resign Holliday for anything approaching his true value and honestly Holliday is somewhat a creation of Coors Field anyway. Away from Coors, Holliday's numbers do not even compare to his MVP like numbers at home. The Rockies are said to be highly interested in CF Shane Victorino in a possible trade but it would be a huge mistake for the Phillies to trade their youngest position player who is also just coming into his prime. Vic has been a sparkplug since coming to the Phillies via the Rule V draft and is also one of the few affordable players on their roster. The Phillies could also offer a package of prospects but it would likely take touted prospects C Lou Marson, SP Carlos Carrasco, SS Jason Donald and someone else to make the Rockies say yes. Trading away that amount of talent from a generally thin minor-league system would be a big mistake. So a trade of that magnitude would be a mistake.

2. Sign A Top OF Free Agent - There are several very good OFs on the market but most have issues for one reason or another. LF Manny Ramirez would be great but he is looking for, and will get, far more money than the Phillies could and would ever pay a 36 year old with a bad repuation for hardwork. He's already said to have a 2 year, $50+ million deal on the table for the Dodgers. LF Adam Dunn is also available but he bats lefthanded and wouldn't be a good fit for the Phillies lineup. He would also likely be prohibitably expensive. We could also look at a guy like OF Milton Bradley. Bradley had a great 2008 season for the Rangers but he comes with a ton of baggage, both from numerous injuries and a very bad clubhouse reputation. He might also want a multi-year deal. With his injury history (never played more than 141 games), he is far too risky to sign long-term.

3. Sign a 2nd Tier Free Agent - The Phillies could also sign a platoon mate for OF Geoff Jenkins and/or UT Greg Dobbs to handle leftfield until a better option arises in a year. There are several veterans out there that hit lefties quite well and would be decent options. Jerry Hairston Jr is coming off an excellent season in Cincinatti during which he hit well over .300 in around 280 AB. A guy like OF Juan Rivera of the Angels could also be a good fit. He was an up and coming right handed bat until he shattered his leg during the 2007 season. Since then he has been relegated to the bench by free agent signings Gary Matthews Jr and Torii Hunter. Still, he might be something to consider.

4. Re-sign Pat Burrell...And Damn the Cost - The Phillies could bite the bullet and give Pat whatever he wants, be it $15 million per season or a 4 year deal. This, of course, would be a huge mistake as Pat is already a guy who gets replaced for defense in any close game. Pat is 32 and in the decline phase of his career. It would also handcuff a team that already has too much money committed in long-term deals. The Phillies need to find ways to lock up Ace Cole Hamels and slugger Ryan Howard before they blow money on Pat Burrell.

5. Do Nothing - The Phillies could, and probably will, do absolutely nothing. They could use a platoon of Matt Stairs and Geoff Jenkins in LF. They could hope that prospect Greg Golson figures out how to hit a curve ball. They could easily rest on their laurels as they are coming off their first World Series victory in 28 years. They could easily cite salary constraints due to huge raises through arbitration to most of their core players prevented them from resigning Pat or any other big name free agent.