Howard's Millions

Is Ryan Howard worth $18 million a year? Honestly, is anyone worth $18 million a year? The answer to both questions is a resounding NO! The real question is this: Will Ryan Howard make $18 million in 2009? The answer to that question is far more uncertain. Howard and the Phillies Front Office exchange arbitration numbers today and to nobody's surprise, Howard requested a ridiculous amount of money despite continuing his decline from his monumental 2006 MVP campaign. About the only thing Howard did as well as in 2007 is hit HRs and drive men in. In every other aspect of the game from batting average to defense at first base, Howard got worse. The question now is whether or not his decline is worth either an 80% pay raise or only a 40% raise.

Its looking more and more as if Ryan Howard will never sign a long-term deal with the Philadelphia Phillies. The recent signings of core players like SP Cole Hamels and RP Ryan Madson merely reinforces this belief. The Phillies don't see Howard as deserving of AROD money or even Jeter money and Howard won't accept anything less than that. Because of this impasse, Howard will almost certainly not finish out his arbitration years in Philadelphia. If the Phillies are able to succeed in winning this year's arbitration hearing, Howard could very well be here a couple more years as he will still be somewhat affordable. If the Phillies are forced to payout $18 million this year and God knows how much in 2010 (maybe $22 million?) then Howard will soon find himself in a new city wearing a different uniform. As Howard is one of the most prodigious sluggers to ever wear red pinstripes, this will be ashame. However, there is almost no way the Phillies would be willing to resign him for that type of money, especially when almost every metric shows that Howard either is or soon will be entering the decline phase of his career.

Ryan Howard has the misfortune of getting off to a late start for a variety of reasons. The biggest reason of course being veteran Jim Thome blocking him at 1B for almost a 1.5 seasons. As a college draft pick, he also got off to a late start. Thus, he is entering his Age 29 season and has yet to see Free Agency and won't see it till the ripe old age of 32. That being said, I cannot pass judgment on or blame a guy in his position for trying to make as much money as he possibly can in what will likely be a short career.

The bottom line is that Ryan Howard and the Phillies Front Office have goals that cannot and will not co-exist and because of this conflict, Howard will be gone at some point in the next few years. My gut tells me that Howard overreached in his request for $18 million and that he will likely "lose" his arbitration hearing. The silver lining for Howard is that by "losing" he will still get a 40% raise over last year. We should all be so lucky.

Oh...and one final thing: WORLD FVCKING CHAMPIONS!!!