Saturday, November 22, 2008

Player Spotlight - CF Shane Victorino

One of the key reasons the Phillies are World Champions is the emergence of CF Shane Victorino. Victorino, a Rule V pickup from the LA Dodgers, has emerged as one of the top centerfielders in baseball offensively and defensively. 2008 was a coming out year for the Flyin' Hawaiian. He is not an elite hitter but he combines great defense, timely hits, and spectacular speed to be one of those complimentary stars that are essential to championship clubs. Vic was recognized for his achievements by snagging his first Rawlings Gold Glove award and more importantly by snagging his first World Series ring.

Victorino is just now entering his prime years at age 27. After three years of observation, we can confidently project what those years will look like. We should probably expect around a .290 batting average, .350 on base percentage, 15 HRs & 40 SB along with elite defense in centerfield. Those aren't Hall of Fame numbers by any means but they are very respectable from a guy that was essentially a scrapheap acquisition.

Looking at the numbers, you can see that Shane has steadily improved in his three full seasons as a starter.

2006: .287 AVG/.346 OBP/.414 SLG, 6 HR, 4 SB
2007: .281 AVG/.347 OBP/.423 SLG, 12 HR, 37 SB
2008: .293 AVG/.352 OBP/.447 SLG, 14 HR, 36 SB

You can easily see a slow but clear improvement in his overal numbers. This improvement becomes more evident when you look at secondary statistics like his BB/PA ratio, BB/SO, & Isolated Power numbers:

BB/PA

06 - 0.53
07 - 0.73
08 - 0.72

BB/SO

06 - 0.44
07 - 0.60
08 - 0.65

IsoP

06 - .128
07 - .143
08 - .154

We do have to consider that Victorino's Age 27 season could very well have been his career year but there are good indications that he will at least give the Phillies that level of performance for the next several years. The most likely scenario has the Phillies in control of an elite defender in centerfield who can get hot and carry the team for short stretches like he did in 2008. Victorino will never be a 3-hole hitter or a cleanup guy but he is essential to the success of the Phillies.

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