Player Spotlight - CF Shane Victorino

One of the key reasons the Phillies are World Champions is the emergence of CF Shane Victorino. Victorino, a Rule V pickup from the LA Dodgers, has emerged as one of the top centerfielders in baseball offensively and defensively. 2008 was a coming out year for the Flyin' Hawaiian. He is not an elite hitter but he combines great defense, timely hits, and spectacular speed to be one of those complimentary stars that are essential to championship clubs. Vic was recognized for his achievements by snagging his first Rawlings Gold Glove award and more importantly by snagging his first World Series ring.

Victorino is just now entering his prime years at age 27. After three years of observation, we can confidently project what those years will look like. We should probably expect around a .290 batting average, .350 on base percentage, 15 HRs & 40 SB along with elite defense in centerfield. Those aren't Hall of Fame numbers by any means but they are very respectable from a guy that was essentially a scrapheap acquisition.

Looking at the numbers, you can see that Shane has steadily improved in his three full seasons as a starter.

2006: .287 AVG/.346 OBP/.414 SLG, 6 HR, 4 SB
2007: .281 AVG/.347 OBP/.423 SLG, 12 HR, 37 SB
2008: .293 AVG/.352 OBP/.447 SLG, 14 HR, 36 SB

You can easily see a slow but clear improvement in his overal numbers. This improvement becomes more evident when you look at secondary statistics like his BB/PA ratio, BB/SO, & Isolated Power numbers:

BB/PA

06 - 0.53
07 - 0.73
08 - 0.72

BB/SO

06 - 0.44
07 - 0.60
08 - 0.65

IsoP

06 - .128
07 - .143
08 - .154

We do have to consider that Victorino's Age 27 season could very well have been his career year but there are good indications that he will at least give the Phillies that level of performance for the next several years. The most likely scenario has the Phillies in control of an elite defender in centerfield who can get hot and carry the team for short stretches like he did in 2008. Victorino will never be a 3-hole hitter or a cleanup guy but he is essential to the success of the Phillies.

Finally!

It only took 28 years. Finally, thank God, we won it all. Think of it this way, no matter what happens for the next five years, WE WON A WORLD SERIES. A Mets fan tries to bash the Phillies...Yeah, that's great, WE WON A WORLD SERIES. The bottom line is that everything after this is gravy for at least five years, hell maybe ten years considering its Philly. The Phillies won the World Series and they did it as a team. Role players like Carlos Ruiz and Jayson Werth carried them to the championship. Guys like Eric Bruntlett, Matt Stairs, Geoff Jenkins, and Pedro Feliz had huge hits and even the big names came through when it mattered. Perhaps the most fitting moment of the 5 game series occurred when the maligned LF Pat Burrell, the longest tenured player on the roster came up to the plate in a key at bat with a huge insurmontable 0-13 line hanging over his head to that point. Pat the Bat, Manchine, PtB, whatever you want to call him came through and came through huge. He absolutely hammered a ball 400 feet to straight center. Off the bat it was a homerun on any other night. Unfortunately for Pat the wind was blowing straight in from Center. That didn't matter so much as Pat got every bit of that ball and got just enough to bank it off the wall for a standup double. Like clockwork, Burrell was lifted for a pinch runner and his Phillies career had its final moment. The pinchrunner ended up scoring the winning run for the clinching game of the World Series as Pat stood with tears in his eyes in the dugout. Pat did his job and helped his team, his only professional team, go ahead for the last time. After season after long season of losing, this victory had to be sweetest of all for Pat. And sweetest of all: WE WON THE WORLD SERIES!!!

Weekly Awards

When looking back at the past week and the Phillies wonderful 1-5 effort, I ask myself, "Why bother with awards this week?". The team collectively sucked and other than Kyle Kendrick's wonderful performance Wednesday night against that Oakland Athletics, they didn't even bother to show up. That said, here are the weekly "awards" for the past week:

Player of the Week - CF Shane Victorino: Vic had an alright week at the plate going 6 for 20 (.300), 2 RBI, 2 R, 6 SB along with 3 BB. He posted a respectable .391 OBP for the week. Considering the team as a whole batted .174, Vic stood out as the one regular who had a decent week.

Pitcher of the Week - SP Kyle Kendrick: Kendrick pitched the best game of his young career, pitching 8 very strong innings against the A's in which he allowed just 4 hits and 0 runs scored. He was the only pitcher to record a win for the team and this strong outing lowered his ERA to a respectable 4.59 on the season.

Goat of the Week - Entire Offense Not Named Victorino: If you take Vic's numbers out of the equation, the Phillies .174 batting average for the week drops even further to a truly pathetic .159. Leading this slop of an offense were 1B Ryan Howard (.125, 7 K), SS Jimmy Rollins (.125, 5 K), RF Geoff Jenkins (.000 in 14 AB, 6 K) and LF Pat Burrell (.190, 8 K).

Injury Notes: RP Tom Gordon has been day-to-day with a sore shoulder and has not looked good in his last few outings. There is a good possibility that he will go on the DL in the next few days if his shoulder does not improve. He allowed 1 run on 2 hits in his only appearance this week.

Stat of the Week: As a team, the Phillies struck out 52 times in 190 ABs in their past 6 games. That's 27.4% of the time if you're scoring at home.

Weekly Awards

Well, I don't have much time today so here's an abbreviated Weekly Wrap. We had a really good week and the offense showed up...now its time for the weekly awards:

Player of the Week - CF Shane Victorino: For a "bench" player, Vic had a great week "subbing" for injured starter Jayson Werth. Vic went 11 for 25 (.440) on the week with 9 R, 3 RBI, 3 BB, 1 SO, 5 SBs, 0 CS, and a .533/1.013 OBP/OPS. Great effort Vic!!!

Honorable Mention: Pete Happy batted .346 on the week with 8 RBI.

Pitcher of the Week - SP Adam Eaton: Eaton probably didn't have the best week of the staff...that honor belongs to Kendrick in his best start of the season but Eaton had 2 very solid starts going 1-1 with a 2.77 ERA in 13 IP. His WHIP for the week was a very respectable 1.08. Good Job Adam.

Goat of the Week - C Carlos Ruiz: Chooch had an off week even for him: 3 of 16 for a .188 Avg in 5 games. He's also be giving up a bunch of playing time recently to fellow catcher.

Werth or Victorino

Now that CF Shane Victorino has come off the disabled list, the Phillies and Charlie Manuel are left with a troubling dilemma of what to do in the outfield. Victorino was tagged as the team's starting CF the moment Aaron Rowand signed with the San Francisco Giants last fall. However, after getting off to a very slow start at the plate, Victorino went on the DL only to see OF Jayson Werth fill his shoes admirably in his absence. Werth has posted a very impressive line of 5 HRs, 13 RBI, 15 R while batting .289/.375/.954 in 76 ABs this season while playing above average defense in CF. Those are All-Star level numbers if he keeps it up. Victorino is batting .229 on the season with no HRs and only 2 RBIs. However, Victorino is Werth's superior at either outfield position. Werth has a plus arm and very good range in both right and center, but Victorino is an elite fielder who could be a gold-glover at some point in his career.

Defensive Breakdown in CF (2008):

Jayson Werth: 14 GS, .975 FPCT, 2.76 RF, .900 ZR, 1 assist
Shane Victorino: 12 GS, 1.000 FPCT, 2.84 RF, .969 ZR, 0 assists

Defensive Breakdown in RF (2007):

Jayson Werth: 55 GS, .983 FPCT, 2.34 RF, .912 ZR, 7 assists
Shane Victorino: 100 GS, .988 FPCT, 2.34 RF, .930 ZR, 10 assists

Range factor (RF) is an excellent measure of a fielders performance and it measures Put outs (PO) plus Assists (A) and divides it by Innings Played (IP) to give us a statistical measure of a fielder in comparison to others.

Zone Rating is a measure the percentage of balls fielded by a player in his typical defensive "zone". Anything over .900 is outstanding for a CF. For example, Andruw Jones has a .875 ZR for his career and barely brushed .900 (he did hit .922 once) during his elite Gold Glove years. His RF in his elite years ranged from a low of 2.82 to a high of 3.19.

Victorino has a slight edge in RF over Werth and a more considerable edge in CF but both are excellent defenders with strong arms who can play all 3 OF positions very well.

Basically it has to come down to matchups and who's hitting better. It also likely means that OF Geoff Jenkins will see his playing time squeezed as the season progresses. That is assuming Victorino starts hitting like he did last year and stealing bases.

Right/Left Splits:

Jayson Werth

Past 3 seasons:
vs. leftys - .316 avg
vs. rightys - .243 avg

2008:
vs. leftys - .333 avg
vs. rights - .262 avg

Shane Victorino

Past 3 seasons:
vs. leftys - .285 avg
vs. rightys - .283 avg

2008:
vs. leftys - .357 avg
vs. rightys - .176 avg

Overall, Victorino appears to be a more balanced hitter but Werth has more power from both sides of the plate. His power is offset slightly by Victorino's speed at the top of the order and on the basepaths. Werth has good speed as well but isn't quite as fast as Victorino. Both players can capably play either RF or CF and I envision Werth getting around 400-500 ABs if he keeps hitting with Jenkins losing out on playing time as a consequence. This is not exactly a bad situation for a manager to be in having two good players to choose from.

Weekly Wrap

Well, its that time again. 1B Ryan Howard continues to struggle in all aspects of the game and his "cold" streak is rapidly becoming a first-half slump for the 2008 season. Luckily both LF Pat Burrell and 2B Chase Utley have picked up the pace and are 1-2 in the League in RBIs so far. Both have had PS3-type weeks that have carried an otherwise underperforming offense to a 12-11 record. The Phillies went 4-3 on the week, losing a 3 game series to the Mets 1-2, sweeping the Rockies in 2, and spliting a 2 game series with the Brewers.

Injury Update: CF Shane Victorino started a rehab assignment in Clearwater on Monday and is eligible to come off the DL on 28 April which is an off day for the Phillies. He will be available to play on the 29th if everything goes well. SS Jimmy Rollins took batting practice at Clearwater and is eligible to come off the DL on 5 May although I wouldn't hold my breath on that. SP Kris Benson continued to throw on the side and had another Bullpen session but there is still no word on when he will start a game in the minors as he continues to come back from shoulder surgery.

Weekly Awards

Player of the Week - 2B Chase Utley: It was a tough decision but Chase basically went nuts this past week with an outrageous line of: .536 AVG/.581 OBP/ 1.831 OPS, 6 HRs, 10 RBI, 8 R in 7 games. LF Pat Burrell also had a very good week but not anywhere close to Utley's.

Pitcher of the Week - CP Brad Lidge: Brad had an excellent week making 5 appearances pitching 5 innings with no earned runs allowed while picking up 3 saves in 3 opportunities. Lidge has anchored the backend of the bullpen so far this year and so far the Bourn-Lidge trade has really paid off.

Goat of the Week - 1B Ryan Howard: Yes, we all know that Howard gets off to slow starts but this is ridiculous. His line: 3 for 28, .107 Avg/.138 OBP, 13 Ks, 1 BB and no extra base hits. Keep it up Ryan, you're definitely worth $10 million per. Interesting fact: No position player on the Phillies has a lower AVG than Ryan Howard so far...only pitchers.

Weekly Wrap

Well it was an up and down week for the Phillies in what has so far been an up and down year. SS Jimmy Rollins is still out of the lineup and is projected to be available possibly Saturday. I suspect however that he will probably not start until Sunday night at the earliest. The Phillies have missed his presence at the top of the lineup along with the speedy Victorino who is still out recovering from a calf strain. CF Shane Victorino looks to return on Apr 29 when he is eligible to come off the DL. Reports on his status are positive and his strain is less severe than originally thought. Hopefully he will be able to slide back into the lineup and give the Phillies another speedy leadoff type guy at the top of the lineup. OF Jayson Werth has been very solid in his place and is batting .370 on the year with 1 HR/5 RBI. It will be nice to get Werth back into his platoon role in RF along with Jenkins. I think it is safe to say that he has earned himself some additional ABs with his performance in the past 2 weeks. That being said, its time for the Weekly Awards:

Player of the Week - LF Pat Burrell: Pat continues to mash the ball in his contract year and he leads the team in all offensive categories. He went 7 for 20 with 5 BBs this week along with 3 HRs and 8 RBI and 6 Runs scored. He is also been playing outstanding defense (for him) in LF. Both his Range Factor (RF) and Zone Rating (ZR) are well above his career norms so far this year. For a player that is much maligned for his mediocre fielding he has been stellar in LF. He has simply been carrying the Phillies so far this season.

Pitcher of the Week - SP Brett Myers: Brett is 2-0 this week with an ERA of 2.40. In 2 starts he has gone 15 Innings while striking out 13 and walking only 1. His BAA is a mere .185 in those starts. He has really turned it on and begun challenging hitters with his fastball after a slow start to the season.

Goat of the Week - UT Eric Bruntlett: It may be unfair to expect much offense out of a utility guy but Eric has had a rough week filling in for JRoll. One surprising stat is that his defensive play has actually been better than JRoll in nearly every category so at least he's doing one thing right. Eric went 4-22 (.182 AVG/.217 OBP) this week and was the only position player without a hit yesterday in the Phillies rout of the Houston Astros.

Honorary Goat of the Week - Houston GM Ed Wade: Ed Wade made what I will politely call some "questionable" moves in his tenure as Phillies GM but I must say that his trade for SS Miguel Tejada appears to be topping all of them. Not only has Tejada been implicated in the Mitchell Report but now we've come to find out that he is indeed 33 years old instead of 31. All this makes the bevy of young prospects that Wade shipped to Baltimore even more painful for Astros fans. This is the same guy that traded his team's closer for a utility OF so go figure.

The Phillies have the Mets coming to town starting tonight where SP Johan Santana will face off against fellow lefty SP Cole Hamels in the Battle of the Changeup. It should be an interesting game to watch. Also the Phillies will be on national television again this Sunday when they face off in the series finale at 8pm on Sunday Night Baseball. Hopefully JRoll will be back for this series.

A Night Best Forgotten

I live in Vermont which means I don't have the privilege of watching the Phillies on local TV whenever I please. So when they are nationally televised in HD like they were last night, I tend to block off that time so I can enjoy the game uninterrupted. I figured I would be in for quite a treat as the Phillies were looking to make it 10 straight against their division rival, the NY Mets. To say the least, I was somewhat disappointed by their lackluster effort in all aspects of the game. UT Eric Bruntlett was brutal filling in from MVP SS Jimmy Rollins. Bruntlett committed two little-league level errors in the games and looked out of place in JRoll's shoes. 3B Pedro Feliz, AKA Rally Killer maintained his place as the Phillie most likely to end any potential run scoring in the course of a game. He was only saved from grounding into another inning ending doubl-play when the usually surehanded Jose Reyes muffed an easy ground ball. However, not to be undone, Feliz promptly hit a weak popout to second base when he came up to bat in the top of the 8th with the bases-loaded and 2 outs. From here on out, I will never use Rally Killer's true name. He will need to earn that privilege back and I kinda doubt that it will ever happen.
Unfortunately for the Phillies, they got absolutely no support from SP Kyle Kendrick. Kendrick, a second-year player, lacked control for most of the night and got pounded when he did manage throw strikes. Kendrick is somewhat of a mystery. No one ever expected him to make the Major League roster last year, let alone win 10 games. He lacks an true out-pitch and gets by on hitting his spots and not walking anyone. He cannot afford to walk anyone as hitters bat .280 off of him with around a .330 OBP. As he also doesn't strike anyone out, his numbers don't project him having a very long career. I think alot of Phillies fans are going to be greatly disappointed by Kendrick this season. Last night, he threw a decent sinking fastball that stayed in the 89-92 MPH range and hit 93 MPH on occasion but he couldn't locate either his changeup or breaking ball with any consistency. He managed to walk 6 batters (a career high by the way) in just over 2 IP. He loaded the bases in both the 1st and 2nd innings on walks and in the 3rd on hits and errors by his defense. He was pulled in favor of RP Chad Durbin after 2 1/3 innings. Luckily for the Phillies, Durbin was able to stop the bleeding and contributed 3 2/3 strong innings with no runs allowed despite pitching the day before. Durbin also lowerd his ERA to 1.13 over 8 innings in 6 appearances in the Phillies first 9 games. He has thus far shown himself to be Manager Charlie Manuel's best option out of the pen.
Overall, the Phillies bullpen has proven to be very deep early in the season, especially after the return of CP Brad Lidge. Durbin, Lidge, Romero, and Gordon have all been excellent. Gordon's only bad game so far came on Opening Day. Since then he has not given up a run in his past 4 appearances. Rudy Seanez looks to be a fine addition to the back end of the pen and RHP Ryan Madson should also contribute. So far, the 12th pitcher Clay Condrey is the only reliever to be really concerned about and I honestly doubt he'll see much meaningful action for the Phillies.

New and Notes: LF Pat Burrell continued his early season tear going 2 for 4 last night raising his average to .400 on the year with 3 HRs/9 RBI. Much maligned starter Adam Eaton looks for 2 strong performances in a row as he faces off against SP John Maine tonight at 7:10 pm. CF Shane Victorino took a step backwards last night going 0-5 with 1 K lowering his average to .162. 1B Ryan Howard continues to struggle at the plate and is batting .188 so far this year. RF Geoff Jenkins made a spectacular diving catch in the 3rd inning last night to help stop the bleeding and the RF platoon of Jenkins and Werth appears to be working out so far early this year (Combined stats: .278 AVG, .381 OBP, 1 HR, 4 RBI, 3 R)

Phillies Ruin Mets Home Opener

Well the Fightin' Phils managed to win again. They were able to come from behind and defeat the Mets 5-2 despite a very strong performance by Mets Lefty Oliver Perez who went 5 2/3 innings without allowing a run. It was truly a team effort as SS Jimmy Rollins, 2B Chase Utley, and CF Shane Victorino each chipped in on offense with key contributions. In particular, Victorino had his first multi-hit game of the season going 2-5 with 1 BB and raised his batting average to .188 on the year. Utley reached base 4 times with 3 HBP and an RBI double to deep right that cemented the Phillies lead in the later innings.

Most importantly, the Bullpen came up strong again in what appears to be a growing strength for the club this year. RHP Chad Durbin pitched another scoreless inning lowering his ERA to 2.08 and LHP J.C. Romero and RHP Tom Gordon pitched the 8th and 9th innings to seal the deal for the Phillies. Gordon has not allowed a run since Opening Day and he appears to have gotten stronger with each outing which is an excellent sign for the bullpen. He recorded his first save of the season as Closer Brad Lidge was unavailable for work as he had pitched the previous 2 days in a row coming off the DL. Romero has continued his excellent pitching for the Phillies this year and Chad Durbin looks well suited to the middle-relief/right handed setup role that he has been given so far early in the season.

SP Kyle Kendrick will take the mound tonight for the Phillies as they try to make it 10 in a row against the NY Mets. Gametime is 7:05 pm EST and will be broadcast nationally in HD on ESPN2.

Pat Burrell Powers Phils to Victory

Pat Burrell hit 2 HRs and drove in 3 as the Phillies defeated the Cincinnati Reds 5-3 this afternoon. SP Cole Hamels delivered his second straight impressive performance going 7 innings and allowing 2 runs (1 earned) while striking out 4. There were alot of positives for the Phillies in this game. Both Jimmy Rollins and Pat Burrell continued their strong starts and RF Geoff Jenkins hit his first HR of the season and is proving to be a fine pick-up by GM Pat Gillick. However, CF Shane Victorino continued to struggle, going 1 for 5 which raised his batting average to .143. Perhaps a move down in the batting order would benefit the Flyin' Hawaiian for a couple of games until he can get his timing down. Or perhaps not. Its still very early in the season to be concerned with this type of slump. In related news, Ryan Howard is struggling somewhat at the plate as well; He went 1-4 with 3 Ks lowering his average to .208 on the season.

Positives:

1. Burrell and JRoll have both started the season fast out of the gate.

2. SP Cole Hamels had another dominant performance.

3. Closer Brad Lidge got his first Save of the season pitching 1 inning and allowing no earned runs.

Negatives:

1. The Phillies defense continues to be atrocious committing another 2 errors today. Both errors were by newcomers with OF So Taguchi and 3B Pedro Feliz each committing one. Both players were brought on board mainly for their defensive skills so go figure.

2. Victorino is off to a horrid start.....143 average in the first 7 games of the season.

3. Howard is also struggling batting .208.

Tomorrow, the Phillies start a 3 game series in NY against the Mets and SP Jamie Moyer will take the mound against SP Oliver Perez. After that they are back in Philly for a 9 game homestand against the Cubs, Astros, and Mets.

Phillies Win in 10 and Weekly Awards

So the Phillies showed that they do give a damn about the season and the offense came alive for them finally. The Phillies actually showed great composure in what could be a huge come from behind victory beating the Nationals 8-7 in 10 innings. It was good to see and it was a good sign to see the much questioned bullpen come up huge.

Positives:

1. Shane Victorino finally got his first hit of the year

2. Bottom half of the order came up huge (Jenkins/Feliz/Coste went 7 for 14 with 4 runs scored and 2 RBI)

3. Bullpen looked solid

Negatives:

1. Tom Gordon took 34 pitches to retire the Nats in the 9th. He managed to load the bases but not give up any runs. Scary.

2. 4 errors in the first inning and a third. The Phillies still don't appear ready to be playing meaningful games.

3. It basically took everything the Phillies had to eke out a victory against a mediocre team and salvage a 1-2 split of the Series. For the record, by the 10th inning the Phillies had no one left on the bench and only RHP Tim Lahay in the bullpen.


Weekly Awards:

Let me start off by explaining how this will work. Every Friday I will give out awards to top performers on the Phillies for the week. This is a somewhat shortened week but typically the period will run from Friday night - Thursday Night for stats and key contributions. That being said:

Pitcher of the Week - Chad Durbin: Now this could easily be Cole Hamels for his dominant 8 inning performance but I'm gonna go out on a limb and say Chad Durbin. Durbin has appeared in all 3 games so far in relief and given up no runs in 3 IP. He has positioned himself to be a go-to guy out of the Pen for the rest of season with his performance.

Player of the Week - Jimmy Rollins: Yeah I know, he's only batting .231 so far in 3 games. However, his huge 1st to 3rd gamble in the 10th inning paid massive dividends yesterday afternoon and positioned the Phillies to win their first game. Also his 7 Total Bases leads the team and he's tied for the team lead in Hits, Runs, RBIs, 2Bs, and HRs.