Werth or Victorino

Now that CF Shane Victorino has come off the disabled list, the Phillies and Charlie Manuel are left with a troubling dilemma of what to do in the outfield. Victorino was tagged as the team's starting CF the moment Aaron Rowand signed with the San Francisco Giants last fall. However, after getting off to a very slow start at the plate, Victorino went on the DL only to see OF Jayson Werth fill his shoes admirably in his absence. Werth has posted a very impressive line of 5 HRs, 13 RBI, 15 R while batting .289/.375/.954 in 76 ABs this season while playing above average defense in CF. Those are All-Star level numbers if he keeps it up. Victorino is batting .229 on the season with no HRs and only 2 RBIs. However, Victorino is Werth's superior at either outfield position. Werth has a plus arm and very good range in both right and center, but Victorino is an elite fielder who could be a gold-glover at some point in his career.

Defensive Breakdown in CF (2008):

Jayson Werth: 14 GS, .975 FPCT, 2.76 RF, .900 ZR, 1 assist
Shane Victorino: 12 GS, 1.000 FPCT, 2.84 RF, .969 ZR, 0 assists

Defensive Breakdown in RF (2007):

Jayson Werth: 55 GS, .983 FPCT, 2.34 RF, .912 ZR, 7 assists
Shane Victorino: 100 GS, .988 FPCT, 2.34 RF, .930 ZR, 10 assists

Range factor (RF) is an excellent measure of a fielders performance and it measures Put outs (PO) plus Assists (A) and divides it by Innings Played (IP) to give us a statistical measure of a fielder in comparison to others.

Zone Rating is a measure the percentage of balls fielded by a player in his typical defensive "zone". Anything over .900 is outstanding for a CF. For example, Andruw Jones has a .875 ZR for his career and barely brushed .900 (he did hit .922 once) during his elite Gold Glove years. His RF in his elite years ranged from a low of 2.82 to a high of 3.19.

Victorino has a slight edge in RF over Werth and a more considerable edge in CF but both are excellent defenders with strong arms who can play all 3 OF positions very well.

Basically it has to come down to matchups and who's hitting better. It also likely means that OF Geoff Jenkins will see his playing time squeezed as the season progresses. That is assuming Victorino starts hitting like he did last year and stealing bases.

Right/Left Splits:

Jayson Werth

Past 3 seasons:
vs. leftys - .316 avg
vs. rightys - .243 avg

2008:
vs. leftys - .333 avg
vs. rights - .262 avg

Shane Victorino

Past 3 seasons:
vs. leftys - .285 avg
vs. rightys - .283 avg

2008:
vs. leftys - .357 avg
vs. rightys - .176 avg

Overall, Victorino appears to be a more balanced hitter but Werth has more power from both sides of the plate. His power is offset slightly by Victorino's speed at the top of the order and on the basepaths. Werth has good speed as well but isn't quite as fast as Victorino. Both players can capably play either RF or CF and I envision Werth getting around 400-500 ABs if he keeps hitting with Jenkins losing out on playing time as a consequence. This is not exactly a bad situation for a manager to be in having two good players to choose from.