Phillies Lock Up Werth

At this point I don't know what to think about Ruben Amaro Jr. As an ardent basher of Amaro since his days under Ed Wade, I have constantly criticized even the smallest moves by him. This week, Amaro is starting to prove why he was selected to be Pat Gillick's replacement. What was just recently described as a minefield for the Phillies has been quickly and efficiently cleared by the new GM. Amaro has not only been able to quickly avoid arbitration with every eligible player other than 1B Ryan Howard, he has done so with the minimum of long-term cost.

Most impressively, the Phillies signed RF Jayson Werth to a 2 year, $10 million deal. Werth will make $3 million in 2009 and $7 million in 2010. This deal avoids arbitration, keeps Werth in RF through his peak years, and give the Front Office cost certaintly when they need it most. Werth could have possibly gone out in 09, had a great year, and significantly increase a potential payday through Free Agency next fall. He chose the safer, more certain route and took the guaranteed money. The Phillies will have very few holes to fill in 2010 thanks to locking up guys like Werth and reliever Ryan Madson. Pedro Feliz will be gone but could very possibly be replaced by prospect Jason Donald. Brett Myers will be a free agent but guys like Carlos Carrasco and Kyle Drabek could very well be knocking at the door next fall.

All in all, its been a pretty solid off-season for the Phillies. They've kept the core together, vastly increased payroll, and not hamstrung themselves long-term. So far, so good.

Werth or Victorino

Now that CF Shane Victorino has come off the disabled list, the Phillies and Charlie Manuel are left with a troubling dilemma of what to do in the outfield. Victorino was tagged as the team's starting CF the moment Aaron Rowand signed with the San Francisco Giants last fall. However, after getting off to a very slow start at the plate, Victorino went on the DL only to see OF Jayson Werth fill his shoes admirably in his absence. Werth has posted a very impressive line of 5 HRs, 13 RBI, 15 R while batting .289/.375/.954 in 76 ABs this season while playing above average defense in CF. Those are All-Star level numbers if he keeps it up. Victorino is batting .229 on the season with no HRs and only 2 RBIs. However, Victorino is Werth's superior at either outfield position. Werth has a plus arm and very good range in both right and center, but Victorino is an elite fielder who could be a gold-glover at some point in his career.

Defensive Breakdown in CF (2008):

Jayson Werth: 14 GS, .975 FPCT, 2.76 RF, .900 ZR, 1 assist
Shane Victorino: 12 GS, 1.000 FPCT, 2.84 RF, .969 ZR, 0 assists

Defensive Breakdown in RF (2007):

Jayson Werth: 55 GS, .983 FPCT, 2.34 RF, .912 ZR, 7 assists
Shane Victorino: 100 GS, .988 FPCT, 2.34 RF, .930 ZR, 10 assists

Range factor (RF) is an excellent measure of a fielders performance and it measures Put outs (PO) plus Assists (A) and divides it by Innings Played (IP) to give us a statistical measure of a fielder in comparison to others.

Zone Rating is a measure the percentage of balls fielded by a player in his typical defensive "zone". Anything over .900 is outstanding for a CF. For example, Andruw Jones has a .875 ZR for his career and barely brushed .900 (he did hit .922 once) during his elite Gold Glove years. His RF in his elite years ranged from a low of 2.82 to a high of 3.19.

Victorino has a slight edge in RF over Werth and a more considerable edge in CF but both are excellent defenders with strong arms who can play all 3 OF positions very well.

Basically it has to come down to matchups and who's hitting better. It also likely means that OF Geoff Jenkins will see his playing time squeezed as the season progresses. That is assuming Victorino starts hitting like he did last year and stealing bases.

Right/Left Splits:

Jayson Werth

Past 3 seasons:
vs. leftys - .316 avg
vs. rightys - .243 avg

2008:
vs. leftys - .333 avg
vs. rights - .262 avg

Shane Victorino

Past 3 seasons:
vs. leftys - .285 avg
vs. rightys - .283 avg

2008:
vs. leftys - .357 avg
vs. rightys - .176 avg

Overall, Victorino appears to be a more balanced hitter but Werth has more power from both sides of the plate. His power is offset slightly by Victorino's speed at the top of the order and on the basepaths. Werth has good speed as well but isn't quite as fast as Victorino. Both players can capably play either RF or CF and I envision Werth getting around 400-500 ABs if he keeps hitting with Jenkins losing out on playing time as a consequence. This is not exactly a bad situation for a manager to be in having two good players to choose from.

Weekly Wrap

Well it was an up and down week for the Phillies in what has so far been an up and down year. SS Jimmy Rollins is still out of the lineup and is projected to be available possibly Saturday. I suspect however that he will probably not start until Sunday night at the earliest. The Phillies have missed his presence at the top of the lineup along with the speedy Victorino who is still out recovering from a calf strain. CF Shane Victorino looks to return on Apr 29 when he is eligible to come off the DL. Reports on his status are positive and his strain is less severe than originally thought. Hopefully he will be able to slide back into the lineup and give the Phillies another speedy leadoff type guy at the top of the lineup. OF Jayson Werth has been very solid in his place and is batting .370 on the year with 1 HR/5 RBI. It will be nice to get Werth back into his platoon role in RF along with Jenkins. I think it is safe to say that he has earned himself some additional ABs with his performance in the past 2 weeks. That being said, its time for the Weekly Awards:

Player of the Week - LF Pat Burrell: Pat continues to mash the ball in his contract year and he leads the team in all offensive categories. He went 7 for 20 with 5 BBs this week along with 3 HRs and 8 RBI and 6 Runs scored. He is also been playing outstanding defense (for him) in LF. Both his Range Factor (RF) and Zone Rating (ZR) are well above his career norms so far this year. For a player that is much maligned for his mediocre fielding he has been stellar in LF. He has simply been carrying the Phillies so far this season.

Pitcher of the Week - SP Brett Myers: Brett is 2-0 this week with an ERA of 2.40. In 2 starts he has gone 15 Innings while striking out 13 and walking only 1. His BAA is a mere .185 in those starts. He has really turned it on and begun challenging hitters with his fastball after a slow start to the season.

Goat of the Week - UT Eric Bruntlett: It may be unfair to expect much offense out of a utility guy but Eric has had a rough week filling in for JRoll. One surprising stat is that his defensive play has actually been better than JRoll in nearly every category so at least he's doing one thing right. Eric went 4-22 (.182 AVG/.217 OBP) this week and was the only position player without a hit yesterday in the Phillies rout of the Houston Astros.

Honorary Goat of the Week - Houston GM Ed Wade: Ed Wade made what I will politely call some "questionable" moves in his tenure as Phillies GM but I must say that his trade for SS Miguel Tejada appears to be topping all of them. Not only has Tejada been implicated in the Mitchell Report but now we've come to find out that he is indeed 33 years old instead of 31. All this makes the bevy of young prospects that Wade shipped to Baltimore even more painful for Astros fans. This is the same guy that traded his team's closer for a utility OF so go figure.

The Phillies have the Mets coming to town starting tonight where SP Johan Santana will face off against fellow lefty SP Cole Hamels in the Battle of the Changeup. It should be an interesting game to watch. Also the Phillies will be on national television again this Sunday when they face off in the series finale at 8pm on Sunday Night Baseball. Hopefully JRoll will be back for this series.