So 1 down, 161 to go. Tom Gordon should just toss himself into traffic on the Blue Route and save himself the pain of coming back to Citizens Bank Park tomorrow and facing the fans after his pathetic performance this afternoon. Absolutely pathetic!!!
Hopefully this isn't an omen on how the season will be but I have a really bad feeling that it will be. So 1 down, 161 to go and the Phillies start off their season in their usual fashion...0-1 after 1 game.
Did I mention that Johan Santana started for the Mets today and is looking to be in All-Star form?
Monday, March 31, 2008
Opening Day!!!
Ahh, the smell of Opening Day!!! I've been to one Opening Day in my life and it was the Phillies 20th Anniversary of opening Veterans Stadium in 1991. Other than that, I've never been to an actual Opening Day. Still after a long cold winter of waiting and watching, checking the paper every day for trades and signings, monitoring the waiver wire and playing GM via email and internet postings, Opening Day is here and with it a season of promise. 162 games loom out ahead of the Phillies and it all starts this afternoon. They haven't lost yet this season and hopefully I'll be able to say the same thing tomorrow.
Brett Myers will take the mound as Opening Day starter in a surprise decision by Charlie Manuel which technically makes Cole Hamels the #2 starter. In reality, they will be co-aces of the pitching staff and the move was made purely out of concern for Hamels' long term health. The lineup will be as fearsome as always featuring two MVP winners and the best 2B in baseball along with key contributers in the form of a 30 HR LF (Pat Burrell), a 20 HR 3B (Pedro Feliz) and a 20 HR RF (Geoff Jenkins) and the potential to steal 50 bases in CF with Shane Victorino. Offensively, this could easily be a historic season for the Phillies and there is no doubt that they will score a ton of runs. Hopefully the questionable pitching will give them just enough to contend and win the NL East. It will be a daunting task as both the Braves and Mets have improved in the off-season and will look to challenge the Phillies for the division crown. It all starts today!!!
Brett Myers will take the mound as Opening Day starter in a surprise decision by Charlie Manuel which technically makes Cole Hamels the #2 starter. In reality, they will be co-aces of the pitching staff and the move was made purely out of concern for Hamels' long term health. The lineup will be as fearsome as always featuring two MVP winners and the best 2B in baseball along with key contributers in the form of a 30 HR LF (Pat Burrell), a 20 HR 3B (Pedro Feliz) and a 20 HR RF (Geoff Jenkins) and the potential to steal 50 bases in CF with Shane Victorino. Offensively, this could easily be a historic season for the Phillies and there is no doubt that they will score a ton of runs. Hopefully the questionable pitching will give them just enough to contend and win the NL East. It will be a daunting task as both the Braves and Mets have improved in the off-season and will look to challenge the Phillies for the division crown. It all starts today!!!
Saturday, March 29, 2008
Phillies Acquire Relief Pitcher
The Phillies claimed RHP Tim Lahey off waivers from the Chicago Cubs today. Lahey is a Rule V draft pick that failed to make the Cubs lineup and he must therefore be kept on the Phillies 25 man roster all season or be offered back to the Minnesota Twins. Lahey was originally drafted out of Princeton as a catcher but was quickly converted to a pitcher after one season in the Twins minor-league system. He is a prototypical power pitcher; He stands 6'5" tall, weighs 250 lbs and throws 3 pitches. His fastball stays in the 90-95 MPH range hovering around 93 most of the time. He throws a good slider and a decent changeup according to scouting reports. He has struggled with control so far in his career but his strikeout rate is above average.
2007 Stats in AA New Britain:
ERA W L GP GS CG ShO SV IP H R ER HR BB K
3.45 8 4 50 0 0 0 13 78.1 78 42 30 8 33 56
As you can see he was good in AA posting a decent K/9 ratio of 6.45 however his BB/9 ratio of 3.80 needs to drop if he is to be successful in the Majors. Also his WHIP of 1.42 needs to improve but its not horrible. The bottom line is that he can't possibly be worse than J.D. Durbin.
Closing notes: The Phillies are also hoping to add another pitcher off waivers before 3pm tomorrow when rosters need to be set.
2007 Stats in AA New Britain:
ERA W L GP GS CG ShO SV IP H R ER HR BB K
3.45 8 4 50 0 0 0 13 78.1 78 42 30 8 33 56
As you can see he was good in AA posting a decent K/9 ratio of 6.45 however his BB/9 ratio of 3.80 needs to drop if he is to be successful in the Majors. Also his WHIP of 1.42 needs to improve but its not horrible. The bottom line is that he can't possibly be worse than J.D. Durbin.
Closing notes: The Phillies are also hoping to add another pitcher off waivers before 3pm tomorrow when rosters need to be set.
Friday, March 28, 2008
Adam Eaton Sucks and Other Phillies Thoughts
Adam Eaton sucks. He is perhaps the worst signing in the history of the Philadelphia Phillies organization. Sadly, barring an unforseen move by the Front Office to cut its losses with him, we have another 2 long seasons of watching him attempt to pitch to MLB hitters. Perhaps the Phillies could hold a raffle every fifth day where a lucky fan is named starting pitcher for that night's start. It couldn't possibly be any worse than trotting Eaton out there to pitch.
The biggest issue with Eaton isn't that he plays poorly, its that he's stupid. He has the ability to pitch in the Majors, he simply doesn't perform. His pitches are good enough, but his selection and poise at key moments always allows 1 run innings to turn into those game killing 5 run innings he is so famous for. Eaton can literally throw 95 pitches in a game and only miss on 5 of them but still lose by 10 runs because he truly is a moron with his pitch selection. He buckles under pressure like a belt. He is absolutely worthless and every time he starts a game this year, it will be another brick in the wall between the Phillies and a post-season berth.
In other news, JD "Real Deal" Durbin was put on waivers. Likely he will stay with the club anyway as I expect that no one in their right mind will be willing to take him off the Phillies hands. This means he will probably start the season in Allentown along with Travis Blackley (who also cleared waivers) playing for the IronPigs. This means that the Phillies could start the season with only 10 pitchers on the 25 man roster and go up to 11 when Lidge is activated from the 15-day DL after the first week of the season. It also means that the Phillies will be able to keep both Chris Snelling and Wes Helms on the 25 man roster at least in the short-term. This will be helpful in efforts to trade Helms instead of outright releasing him and being on the hook for around $3 million in future salary. However, it also means the Phillies are likely expecting to be able to pick up another pitcher off the waivers scrap heap between now and Sunday afternoon when rosters need to be set for Opening Day. This could mean that borderline players like LHP Steve Kline (who was mentioned in earlier trade rumors) may be available on waivers in the next few days, alleviating the need for the Phillies to give anything up for another arm.
Bold Prediction for the year: Pat Burrell will have a huge contract year in 2008. Pat will be looking to sign one final long term deal after this season and he will need to come up huge to make it happen. Likely, the Phillies will not be resigning him for a couple of reasons. First off, he is dreadful defensively in LF and he has never recovered from the series of ankle and foot injuries he has dealt with in the past few years. Secondly, they are leary of long-term deals for 30+ players like Burrell. Finally, it would make sense for Pat to go for a DH role on an AL club which would lengthen his career considerably with far less wear and tear on his already fragile legs. I could easily see him ending up somewhere like Toronto where Frank Thomas's contract will be up or the Yankees who have around $60 million coming off the books next year as well. Burrell has been very underrated as a Phillie and he has provided a very solid right-handed bat for them for the past 7 years. He will be missed in the middle of the lineup. Left field is a different story though. Predicted line for Pat Burrell this season:
G: 151
AB: 525
Avg: .279
OBP: .415
HR: 35
RBI: 109
BB: 110
K: 120
The biggest issue with Eaton isn't that he plays poorly, its that he's stupid. He has the ability to pitch in the Majors, he simply doesn't perform. His pitches are good enough, but his selection and poise at key moments always allows 1 run innings to turn into those game killing 5 run innings he is so famous for. Eaton can literally throw 95 pitches in a game and only miss on 5 of them but still lose by 10 runs because he truly is a moron with his pitch selection. He buckles under pressure like a belt. He is absolutely worthless and every time he starts a game this year, it will be another brick in the wall between the Phillies and a post-season berth.
In other news, JD "Real Deal" Durbin was put on waivers. Likely he will stay with the club anyway as I expect that no one in their right mind will be willing to take him off the Phillies hands. This means he will probably start the season in Allentown along with Travis Blackley (who also cleared waivers) playing for the IronPigs. This means that the Phillies could start the season with only 10 pitchers on the 25 man roster and go up to 11 when Lidge is activated from the 15-day DL after the first week of the season. It also means that the Phillies will be able to keep both Chris Snelling and Wes Helms on the 25 man roster at least in the short-term. This will be helpful in efforts to trade Helms instead of outright releasing him and being on the hook for around $3 million in future salary. However, it also means the Phillies are likely expecting to be able to pick up another pitcher off the waivers scrap heap between now and Sunday afternoon when rosters need to be set for Opening Day. This could mean that borderline players like LHP Steve Kline (who was mentioned in earlier trade rumors) may be available on waivers in the next few days, alleviating the need for the Phillies to give anything up for another arm.
Bold Prediction for the year: Pat Burrell will have a huge contract year in 2008. Pat will be looking to sign one final long term deal after this season and he will need to come up huge to make it happen. Likely, the Phillies will not be resigning him for a couple of reasons. First off, he is dreadful defensively in LF and he has never recovered from the series of ankle and foot injuries he has dealt with in the past few years. Secondly, they are leary of long-term deals for 30+ players like Burrell. Finally, it would make sense for Pat to go for a DH role on an AL club which would lengthen his career considerably with far less wear and tear on his already fragile legs. I could easily see him ending up somewhere like Toronto where Frank Thomas's contract will be up or the Yankees who have around $60 million coming off the books next year as well. Burrell has been very underrated as a Phillie and he has provided a very solid right-handed bat for them for the past 7 years. He will be missed in the middle of the lineup. Left field is a different story though. Predicted line for Pat Burrell this season:
G: 151
AB: 525
Avg: .279
OBP: .415
HR: 35
RBI: 109
BB: 110
K: 120
Thursday, March 27, 2008
And Then there were 11...
Travis Blackley, the Rule V draft pick from San Fran, has been sent packing. It is no guarantee that he won't end up back in Allentown with the IronPigs but for now he has been placed on waivers. Once, and if, he clears waivers he will be offered back to the Giants who may or may not take him. If they decide to not reclaim him, he will have the choice of taking a minor league deal from the Phillies or becoming an outright free agent. That being said I hope he somehow makes it through all of that and ends of in Allentown because he has the talent to pitch in the big leagues even if the control is not quite there.
With his departure, the Phillies are down to 11 "healthy" pitchers in camp. One of these is J.D. Durbin who has no business being in a major league uniform with the Spring he has had. Once a good possibility for the 5th starter position or even a bullpen slot, he quickly pitched his way out of either. Only an injury to Lidge and horrid springs by several other pitchers in camp have prevented his departure.
Right now it looks as if the Phillies may begin the season with only 11 pitchers on the 25 man roster. This will allow them to hang on to either Wes Helms or Chris Snelling. Neither player can be sent down without being exposed to waivers and it is likely that they would be snagged by other clubs that have issues in their infield such as SF or the LA Dodgers. Hopefully the Phillies will bite the bullet and end the Wes Helms experiment and hang onto Snelling who has shown glimpses that he can be a solid utility player and pinch-hitter on this club.
On another note, thankfully Spring Training is almost over. The Phillies Spring started off in a dreadful fashion as they went 5-11-1. After that dreadful start, Manager Charlie Manuel essentially ripped the clubhouse a new one and they began to play much better ball. The starting pitching turned it around and they have struggled back up to a 12-15 record with 4 games left to play. Hopefully the Phillies regular season will not have a similar start as the Phils cannot afford to have another sub-.500 April with two other strong teams in the division this year in the Mets and Braves. More so than ever, the Phillies need to get off to a strong start if they are to repeat as NL East Champs.
Closing Thoughts: Brett Myers had another very strong start against the Yankees yesterday, giving up no runs in 5 IPs. SP Andrew Carpenter of Single-A Clearwater fame had a strong outing as well and he may well have opened up some eyes in the Front Office in doing so. Carpenter will start the season in Double-A Reading and is a real possibility for a 2nd Half call up if two things happen. First the Phillies need to have a spot in the rotation or bullpen for him which means either ineffective or injured starters on their part. Second, he has to perform in Reading much like Kendrick did last year. Both are real possibilities. It is almost a guarantee that the Phillies will get a major contribution from one of their pitching prospects this season. Between LHP Joe Savery, RHP Carlos Carrasco, LHP Josh Outman, and RHP Andrew Carpenter, the Phillies have several good mid-level pitching prospects in their system and all 4 are almost ready for Major League action. The door is wide open for any of the 4 to prove themselves. Opening Day is 4 days away!!!
With his departure, the Phillies are down to 11 "healthy" pitchers in camp. One of these is J.D. Durbin who has no business being in a major league uniform with the Spring he has had. Once a good possibility for the 5th starter position or even a bullpen slot, he quickly pitched his way out of either. Only an injury to Lidge and horrid springs by several other pitchers in camp have prevented his departure.
Right now it looks as if the Phillies may begin the season with only 11 pitchers on the 25 man roster. This will allow them to hang on to either Wes Helms or Chris Snelling. Neither player can be sent down without being exposed to waivers and it is likely that they would be snagged by other clubs that have issues in their infield such as SF or the LA Dodgers. Hopefully the Phillies will bite the bullet and end the Wes Helms experiment and hang onto Snelling who has shown glimpses that he can be a solid utility player and pinch-hitter on this club.
On another note, thankfully Spring Training is almost over. The Phillies Spring started off in a dreadful fashion as they went 5-11-1. After that dreadful start, Manager Charlie Manuel essentially ripped the clubhouse a new one and they began to play much better ball. The starting pitching turned it around and they have struggled back up to a 12-15 record with 4 games left to play. Hopefully the Phillies regular season will not have a similar start as the Phils cannot afford to have another sub-.500 April with two other strong teams in the division this year in the Mets and Braves. More so than ever, the Phillies need to get off to a strong start if they are to repeat as NL East Champs.
Closing Thoughts: Brett Myers had another very strong start against the Yankees yesterday, giving up no runs in 5 IPs. SP Andrew Carpenter of Single-A Clearwater fame had a strong outing as well and he may well have opened up some eyes in the Front Office in doing so. Carpenter will start the season in Double-A Reading and is a real possibility for a 2nd Half call up if two things happen. First the Phillies need to have a spot in the rotation or bullpen for him which means either ineffective or injured starters on their part. Second, he has to perform in Reading much like Kendrick did last year. Both are real possibilities. It is almost a guarantee that the Phillies will get a major contribution from one of their pitching prospects this season. Between LHP Joe Savery, RHP Carlos Carrasco, LHP Josh Outman, and RHP Andrew Carpenter, the Phillies have several good mid-level pitching prospects in their system and all 4 are almost ready for Major League action. The door is wide open for any of the 4 to prove themselves. Opening Day is 4 days away!!!
Wednesday, March 26, 2008
American League Predictions
AL West
1. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim: The Angels should easily win this division but it has nothing to do with them overpaying for Torii Hunter to roam CF for them. While signing Hunter was a good job of acknowledging that Gary Matthews Jr. was a mistake, he is not what will put them over the top. Their great pitching and excellent lineup (two things they already had in place) will be enough. A fearsome pitching staff led by John Lackey and Kelvim Escobar will only get better with another year of experience for Jered Weaver and the trade for former White Sox starter John Garland. 95 wins
2. Seattle Mariners: It may have taken 3 months but the Mariners are now the proud owners of premier left-handed pitcher Erik Bedard. While Bedard is a top starter he has never pitched over 200 innings and his durability will be a question all season long. However he does give the Mariners an excellent 1-2 punch at the top of their rotation along with Felix Hernandez. They won't hit enough to compete with the Angels but they will keep it interesting in the AL West for most of the season. 80 wins
3. Oakland Athletics: Moneyball is dead and along with any hope of the Athletics competing this season and probably in 2009 as well as they start to rebuild from a surprising run of near-excellence. Blanton and Harden remain of a once dominant rotation but there are far far too many huge questions in their lineup. Jack Cust will disappoint many in route to breaking the all-time strikeout record assuming the A's keep him in the lineup long enough to do so. 70 wins
4. Texas Rangers: Marlon Byrd is penciled in as their starting LF. That sentence will pretty much sum up the 2008 season for the Texas Rangers. 65-70 wins
AL Central:
1. Detroit Tigers: Barring a major string of injuries, the Tigers seem almost destined to win the AL Central and lead the entire American League this year. The addition of Miguel Cabrera and Edgar Renteria to an already potent lineup will make them an offensive juggernaut. There isn't one weakness in their starting 8. Their pitching is somewhat questionable. Bonderman had a horrible second half last year but it was revealed that he had suffered an elbow injury in early July and that should explain his dismal performance during the second half. Justin Verlander, Kenny Rogers, and Nate Robertson should all be solid and Dontrelle Willis will be a mystery. If he can regain his control, he could be the wildcard that gives Detroit a World Series title. If he doesn't he will soon see himself banished to the bullpen despite the $29 million extension he signed during the winter. 95-100 wins
2. Cleveland Indians: In 2006, everything that could go wrong for the Indians did go wrong. In 2007 the exact opposite happened. The Indians charged to a division title riding the arms of C.C. Sabathia and Fausto Carmona. They have a solid lineup that doesn't rely on any one player to hit for power and their pitching was excellent. They should challenge the Tigers again this year but their offense just doesn't have enough run-scoring ability to compete in a very tough division. 90-95 wins
3. Minnesota Twins: They traded away the best pitcher in baseball for some magic beans and with him any chance of making the playoffs this season. They should get a healthy Francisco Liriano at some point in April to soften the blow of Santana leaving but they also have to deal with the loss of innings eater Carlos Silva to the Mariners. Mauer, Morneau, and new acquisition Delmon Young should give contribute to a decent offense but the Twins simply have too many holes at key positions and not enough depth for 2008. 70-75 wins
4. Kansas City Royals: The Royals are headed in the right direction at least. Target good free agents and sign them while building depth in the draft. This same strategy transformed the Tigers from a 120 loss team into a World Series team in just a couple of years. Last year's signing of Gil Meche was an underrated signing and he gave the Royals an excellent season. This year's signing of Jose Guillen could be the same. Add in some good young players and the Royals may have something brewing. It's gonna be a couple of years at least though. 70-75 wins
5. Chicago White Sox: For the most part, the White Sox did very little to improve this off-season. They traded away Jon Garland which forces former prospect Gavin Floyd to be their 3rd starter and the rest of their lineup simply got older. They also nabbed Nick Swisher from the A's in a trade. But then they inexplicitly sent emerging star 3B Josh Fields to the minors and gave Joe Crede his job back. Their lineup consists of aging sluggers in Paul Konerko, Jim Thome, and Jermaine Dye, AJ Pierzynski catching and Orlando Cabrera at SS. Their pitching got worse and they have no depth to replace their veteran players. Its will be a very long year on the South Side. 65-70 wins
AL East:
1. New York Yankees: The Yankees wisely, for once, held onto their young pitchers and because of that will likely be the favorite in the AL East for years to come. Their lineup is explosive as always and they have the money to fill any holes if needed during the season. Look for a big season from starter Phillip Hughes and for Ian Kennedy to be solid as a 4th or 5th starter. They had one of the best records after the all-star break last year and there is no reason to suggest that with new manager Joe Girardi, that streak will not continue. 95-100 wins
2. Boston Redsox: The Redsox are the defending World Series champs which is both a good and bad thing for the 2008 season. They possess a solid veteran lineup but also get key contributions from young players such as CF Jacoby Ellsbury amd SP Clay Bucholtz. SP Jon Lester is another year removed from lymphoma and should be back up to full strength for the first time since his rookie campaign. This is a good thing as Curt Schilling will likely miss most of the season with a major shoulder injury. Dice-K and Josh Beckett, if healthy, will anchor one of the best rotations in baseball and their lineup should have at least one more good season left in the tank. A post WS victory swoon is a distinct possibility however and because of that they could easily miss the playoffs in a very tough AL race. 90-95 wins
3. Toronto Bluejays: Its all or nothing this year for the Blue Jays. If they do not at least compete in the AL East, there will likely be a major shakeup in their front office in the next offseason. The acquisitions of Scott Rolen and David Eckstein will provide them with experienced winners at two key positions and if everyone is able to stay healthy they have an excellent shot of finishing second in the AL East. Both Roy Halladay and AJ Burnett have to have career years for any of this to happen and the rest of the offense has to click. 85-90 wins
4. Tampa Bay Rays: They have more prospects and more young talent than any team in baseball, but they don't have any experience. Still, despite this, they should be able to be competitive and flirt with a .500 record in 08. 80 wins
5. Baltimore Orioles: The punching bag of the AL East will have a very long season as they go into full rebuilding mode. They will be lucky to win 60 games in 2008.
Division Winners:
AL West: LA Angels
AL Central: Detroit Tigers
AL East: NY Yankees
Wildcard: Cleveland or Boston
Darkhorse team: Toronto Bluejays.
1. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim: The Angels should easily win this division but it has nothing to do with them overpaying for Torii Hunter to roam CF for them. While signing Hunter was a good job of acknowledging that Gary Matthews Jr. was a mistake, he is not what will put them over the top. Their great pitching and excellent lineup (two things they already had in place) will be enough. A fearsome pitching staff led by John Lackey and Kelvim Escobar will only get better with another year of experience for Jered Weaver and the trade for former White Sox starter John Garland. 95 wins
2. Seattle Mariners: It may have taken 3 months but the Mariners are now the proud owners of premier left-handed pitcher Erik Bedard. While Bedard is a top starter he has never pitched over 200 innings and his durability will be a question all season long. However he does give the Mariners an excellent 1-2 punch at the top of their rotation along with Felix Hernandez. They won't hit enough to compete with the Angels but they will keep it interesting in the AL West for most of the season. 80 wins
3. Oakland Athletics: Moneyball is dead and along with any hope of the Athletics competing this season and probably in 2009 as well as they start to rebuild from a surprising run of near-excellence. Blanton and Harden remain of a once dominant rotation but there are far far too many huge questions in their lineup. Jack Cust will disappoint many in route to breaking the all-time strikeout record assuming the A's keep him in the lineup long enough to do so. 70 wins
4. Texas Rangers: Marlon Byrd is penciled in as their starting LF. That sentence will pretty much sum up the 2008 season for the Texas Rangers. 65-70 wins
AL Central:
1. Detroit Tigers: Barring a major string of injuries, the Tigers seem almost destined to win the AL Central and lead the entire American League this year. The addition of Miguel Cabrera and Edgar Renteria to an already potent lineup will make them an offensive juggernaut. There isn't one weakness in their starting 8. Their pitching is somewhat questionable. Bonderman had a horrible second half last year but it was revealed that he had suffered an elbow injury in early July and that should explain his dismal performance during the second half. Justin Verlander, Kenny Rogers, and Nate Robertson should all be solid and Dontrelle Willis will be a mystery. If he can regain his control, he could be the wildcard that gives Detroit a World Series title. If he doesn't he will soon see himself banished to the bullpen despite the $29 million extension he signed during the winter. 95-100 wins
2. Cleveland Indians: In 2006, everything that could go wrong for the Indians did go wrong. In 2007 the exact opposite happened. The Indians charged to a division title riding the arms of C.C. Sabathia and Fausto Carmona. They have a solid lineup that doesn't rely on any one player to hit for power and their pitching was excellent. They should challenge the Tigers again this year but their offense just doesn't have enough run-scoring ability to compete in a very tough division. 90-95 wins
3. Minnesota Twins: They traded away the best pitcher in baseball for some magic beans and with him any chance of making the playoffs this season. They should get a healthy Francisco Liriano at some point in April to soften the blow of Santana leaving but they also have to deal with the loss of innings eater Carlos Silva to the Mariners. Mauer, Morneau, and new acquisition Delmon Young should give contribute to a decent offense but the Twins simply have too many holes at key positions and not enough depth for 2008. 70-75 wins
4. Kansas City Royals: The Royals are headed in the right direction at least. Target good free agents and sign them while building depth in the draft. This same strategy transformed the Tigers from a 120 loss team into a World Series team in just a couple of years. Last year's signing of Gil Meche was an underrated signing and he gave the Royals an excellent season. This year's signing of Jose Guillen could be the same. Add in some good young players and the Royals may have something brewing. It's gonna be a couple of years at least though. 70-75 wins
5. Chicago White Sox: For the most part, the White Sox did very little to improve this off-season. They traded away Jon Garland which forces former prospect Gavin Floyd to be their 3rd starter and the rest of their lineup simply got older. They also nabbed Nick Swisher from the A's in a trade. But then they inexplicitly sent emerging star 3B Josh Fields to the minors and gave Joe Crede his job back. Their lineup consists of aging sluggers in Paul Konerko, Jim Thome, and Jermaine Dye, AJ Pierzynski catching and Orlando Cabrera at SS. Their pitching got worse and they have no depth to replace their veteran players. Its will be a very long year on the South Side. 65-70 wins
AL East:
1. New York Yankees: The Yankees wisely, for once, held onto their young pitchers and because of that will likely be the favorite in the AL East for years to come. Their lineup is explosive as always and they have the money to fill any holes if needed during the season. Look for a big season from starter Phillip Hughes and for Ian Kennedy to be solid as a 4th or 5th starter. They had one of the best records after the all-star break last year and there is no reason to suggest that with new manager Joe Girardi, that streak will not continue. 95-100 wins
2. Boston Redsox: The Redsox are the defending World Series champs which is both a good and bad thing for the 2008 season. They possess a solid veteran lineup but also get key contributions from young players such as CF Jacoby Ellsbury amd SP Clay Bucholtz. SP Jon Lester is another year removed from lymphoma and should be back up to full strength for the first time since his rookie campaign. This is a good thing as Curt Schilling will likely miss most of the season with a major shoulder injury. Dice-K and Josh Beckett, if healthy, will anchor one of the best rotations in baseball and their lineup should have at least one more good season left in the tank. A post WS victory swoon is a distinct possibility however and because of that they could easily miss the playoffs in a very tough AL race. 90-95 wins
3. Toronto Bluejays: Its all or nothing this year for the Blue Jays. If they do not at least compete in the AL East, there will likely be a major shakeup in their front office in the next offseason. The acquisitions of Scott Rolen and David Eckstein will provide them with experienced winners at two key positions and if everyone is able to stay healthy they have an excellent shot of finishing second in the AL East. Both Roy Halladay and AJ Burnett have to have career years for any of this to happen and the rest of the offense has to click. 85-90 wins
4. Tampa Bay Rays: They have more prospects and more young talent than any team in baseball, but they don't have any experience. Still, despite this, they should be able to be competitive and flirt with a .500 record in 08. 80 wins
5. Baltimore Orioles: The punching bag of the AL East will have a very long season as they go into full rebuilding mode. They will be lucky to win 60 games in 2008.
Division Winners:
AL West: LA Angels
AL Central: Detroit Tigers
AL East: NY Yankees
Wildcard: Cleveland or Boston
Darkhorse team: Toronto Bluejays.
Tuesday, March 25, 2008
National League Predictions
NL West:
1. LA Dodgers: The Dodgers did little to improve this off-season. The key to this is that they didn't need to do much. Other than personality issues in the clubhouse, they were the best team in a tough division last year. Their young players will get better with more playing time and the addition of Andruw Jones will give them an outstanding defensive CF who's also capable of hitting 40+ HRs this year. Their pitching staff is solid and they have a HOF Manager in Joe Torre who will quell any clubhouse issues this year unlike Grady Little last year. 90+ Wins
2. Arizona Diamondbacks: Great pitching with the addition of Dan Haren from OAK and getting hopefully a healthy Randy Johnson back as a #3 guy. Like LA, their young players from last year will be a year older and their surprise run into the playoffs last year gave them a taste of how good they will be in the future. I expect a close race between LA and AZ this year for the division crown. 90+ Wins
3. Colorado Rockies: Awesome hitting led by 2nd year SS Troy Tulowitski, OF Matt Holliday, 3B Garrett Atkins, and 1B Todd Helton will keep them in most games. Their pitching was questionable last year outside of their once-in-a-lifetime September run and it has not improved this off-season. All those diehard Rockies fans from last October will be sorely disapointed by the 2008 version of the club. However they will be competitive in a very tough division. 85+ Wins
4. San Diego Padres: An excellent pitching staff that is anchored by Cy Young winner Jake Peavy and Chris Young will keep them in games and break up any long losing streaks. They still have decent hitting but simply not enough to compete in this division. You should still expect 80+ wins from this club though. 80+ wins
5. San Francisco Giants: Its a new era in San Fran and it won't be a pretty one...at least not this year. Many of their position players are too old and they don't have enough big bats to compete. Their young pitching is among the best in baseball and they will get baptism by fire this year. Their projected cleanup hitter is the late great Bengie Molina which should tell you something of their projected lineup. Aurilia, Durham, and Visquel also return in what likely will be their last seasons by the Bay. Hey at least they have a beautiful stadium. Projected record: 62-100
NL Central:
1. Chicago Cubs: The Cubs snuck into the playoffs in a very weak division last year and they have only gotten better this off-season with the acquisition of OF Fukodome, the latest import from Japan. The possible and much rumored about trade for All-star 2B Brian Roberts from BAL will only strengthen an already very solid lineup. Their pitching is good but not great but it is easily good enough in this division. Expect 85-88 wins and a division crown.
2. Milwaukee Brewers: "Mil a Wau Kee" or "The Good Land" is the only major American city to elect three socialist mayors. An excellent, and very young, lineup is anchored by 1B Prince Fielder, SS JJ Hardy and new minted LF Ryan Braun who is making the transition from the Hot Corner to the much easier defensively 7 spot. This will automatically make their infield defense better and give them 40+ HRs from both LF and 1B. The rest of their lineup is solid and their pitching is decent. They should compete with the Cubs for the Division for much of the year. If Ben Sheets is able to stay healthy and actually make 34 starts and pitch 220+ innings, the Brewers will likely win the division. (Note: The last year Sheets had over 200 IP was 2004) If not, they simply don't have the pitching. 83-86 wins and 2nd in the division
3. Cincinnati Reds: The Reds are the hardest team to project in this division. They have the talent to compete and even win this division but lack the experience. A good pitching staff is anchored by Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo. Harang is perhaps one of the most underrated pitchers in baseball. The addition of sinkerball pitcher Josh Fogg and another year of experience for uber-prospect Homer Bailey should give them 4 good starters. Their projected lineup is solid. Griffey can still hack and Adam Dunn is a guarantee for 40HR/100RBI and the requisite 160 K to go with it. Ryan Freel needs to stay healthy and 1B prospect Joey Votto needs to grow up fast for the Reds to take the division. They will compete and several of their pitchers arms may fall off with Dusty Baker as their manager. 80-85 wins
4. Houston Astros: When your key addition is an aging SS who is promptly outted as a juicer the next day and Ed Wade is your new GM...its gonna be a long season. Mr. Wade, of Philadelphia fame, promptly traded away the entire farm system for Miguel Tejada. In his defense he may have been severely intoxicated at the time. So the Stros have no depth and a mediocre SS...and 5th OF Michael Bourn is their starting CF. Bourn...AKA Joey Gathright Version 2.0 is very fast and can probably steal 40 bases...that is if he can actually get on base 40 times in a season. Look for Roy Oswalt losing another year of his prime on a weak team and for Carlos Lee to grow fatter. OF Hunter Pence, who will now be a corner outfielder instead of in his natural position should have a solid sophomore campaign and Lance Berkman will be solid as well. 75 Wins...if everything goes right.
5. St. Louis Cardinals: Albert Pujols may need Tommy John surgery. That was the best news of the off-season for the Cardinals in what was a very long off season. Their major off-season acquisition was 4th Starter Kyle Lohse who will be good for eating innings and little else. Trading Rolen for Glaus is a wash and the little engine that could, David Eckstein, has joined his infield mate in Toronto. A full year of Rich Ankiel in CF should be interesting. He has power (and HGH) but still doesn't know how to hit a breaking ball. After hitting .328 in Aug, most pitchers adjusted to him last Sep after his hot start and he batted .261 with 22 K for in 111 AB for the month because of it. It will be long year that will only get longer if and when Pujols elbow blows out for good. 70 wins.
6. Pittsburgh Pirates: Why fix what isn't broke. No major additions outside of the front office almost guarantees the Pirates another losing season. They have several good players but no great players and not enough depth to compete even in the NL Central. 65-70 wins
NL East:
1. Philadelphia Phillies: It will be very close...very close for the Phillies to repeat as NL East champs. The acquisition of Johan Santana by the Mets was not the deathknell that many in Philly thought it to be. The Mets have just as many question marks as the Fightin' Phils. A truly outstanding lineup featuring 2 MVPs in Rollins and Howard along with the best 2B in baseball Chase Utley has not weakened one bit this off-season. The siging of Pedro Feliz will add another 25 HRs to the mix and moving Shane Victorino to CF will allow him to showcase his blazing speed and powerful arm. LF Pat Burrell is in a contract year and is always good for 30 HR/90 RBI and the RF platoon of Geoff Jenkins and Jason Werth should be solid. The pitching is questionable after Brett Myers and Cole Hamels but the Phillies lineup should score enough runs to keep them in almost every game. Look for a disappointing 2nd season for 1st year standout Kyle Kendrick but hopefully Jamie Moyer has just enough left in the tank and a combination of Adam Eaton and Kris Benson (when he's back healthy) will be just enough pitching to win another division. 90-95 wins
2. NY Mets: Johan Santana. The best pitcher in baseball is going to a pitchers park in Shea and much weaker NL lineups. If he stays healthy look for him to nab another Cy Young. However, after that, there are many question marks. The combination of 3B David Wright and SS Jose Reyes gives them the best left side of the infield in the National League and Beltran will be solid in the outfield. Delgado is a huge question to stay healthy and a combination of Pagan and Church at the outfield corners will make for a long season for Mets fans. The acquisition of Santana pushes Pedro Martinez to #2 in the rotation and will help keep him fresh. John Maine should have another solid season as well. It will be close between them and the Phillies. 90-95 wins.
3. Atlanta Braves: The Braves could easily win this division. They could easily finish 3rd as well. They have a very solid lineup and excellent pitching as always. If Smoltz, Hudson, Glavine, and Hampton all stay healthy, the Phillies and Mets may look up in the standings to see Atlanta leading the division. The odds of all 4 staying healthy is slim to none however. Their lineup features a good mix of veterans and young players. 3B Chipper Jones is quietly cementing a HOF career while RF Jeff Francouer is emerging as one of the best RFs in all of baseball. The addition of a full year of 1B Mark Teixera will give them enough offense to compete in this division. 85-90 wins.
4. Washington Nationals: They will enjoy their beautiful new stadium this year located along the picturesque Anacostia River in DC. Other than that, it will be a long season. They simply don't have enough hitting or pitching to compete in this division. 70 Wins
5. Florida Marlins: Well, the good news is that they have a new stadium deal in place with the city of Miami. The bad news is that they'll be lucky to average 10,000 fans this year as they have the least recognizable lineup in all of baseball. Their two remaining holdovers from the 2003 WS are gone with the trade of Cabrera/Willis to Detroit for a boatload of prospects. Expect a poor season from prospect Cameron Maybin if he is called up as he really needs another season in AAA but most likely won't get it in this organization. All-star SS Hanley Ramirez is the lone bright spot in this very very young team. There is much hope for the future though. 60-65 wins
Division Winners:
NL West: Dodgers
NL Central: Cubs
NL East: Phillies
Wildcard: Mets or Diamondbacks
Tomorrow: AL Predictions.
1. LA Dodgers: The Dodgers did little to improve this off-season. The key to this is that they didn't need to do much. Other than personality issues in the clubhouse, they were the best team in a tough division last year. Their young players will get better with more playing time and the addition of Andruw Jones will give them an outstanding defensive CF who's also capable of hitting 40+ HRs this year. Their pitching staff is solid and they have a HOF Manager in Joe Torre who will quell any clubhouse issues this year unlike Grady Little last year. 90+ Wins
2. Arizona Diamondbacks: Great pitching with the addition of Dan Haren from OAK and getting hopefully a healthy Randy Johnson back as a #3 guy. Like LA, their young players from last year will be a year older and their surprise run into the playoffs last year gave them a taste of how good they will be in the future. I expect a close race between LA and AZ this year for the division crown. 90+ Wins
3. Colorado Rockies: Awesome hitting led by 2nd year SS Troy Tulowitski, OF Matt Holliday, 3B Garrett Atkins, and 1B Todd Helton will keep them in most games. Their pitching was questionable last year outside of their once-in-a-lifetime September run and it has not improved this off-season. All those diehard Rockies fans from last October will be sorely disapointed by the 2008 version of the club. However they will be competitive in a very tough division. 85+ Wins
4. San Diego Padres: An excellent pitching staff that is anchored by Cy Young winner Jake Peavy and Chris Young will keep them in games and break up any long losing streaks. They still have decent hitting but simply not enough to compete in this division. You should still expect 80+ wins from this club though. 80+ wins
5. San Francisco Giants: Its a new era in San Fran and it won't be a pretty one...at least not this year. Many of their position players are too old and they don't have enough big bats to compete. Their young pitching is among the best in baseball and they will get baptism by fire this year. Their projected cleanup hitter is the late great Bengie Molina which should tell you something of their projected lineup. Aurilia, Durham, and Visquel also return in what likely will be their last seasons by the Bay. Hey at least they have a beautiful stadium. Projected record: 62-100
NL Central:
1. Chicago Cubs: The Cubs snuck into the playoffs in a very weak division last year and they have only gotten better this off-season with the acquisition of OF Fukodome, the latest import from Japan. The possible and much rumored about trade for All-star 2B Brian Roberts from BAL will only strengthen an already very solid lineup. Their pitching is good but not great but it is easily good enough in this division. Expect 85-88 wins and a division crown.
2. Milwaukee Brewers: "Mil a Wau Kee" or "The Good Land" is the only major American city to elect three socialist mayors. An excellent, and very young, lineup is anchored by 1B Prince Fielder, SS JJ Hardy and new minted LF Ryan Braun who is making the transition from the Hot Corner to the much easier defensively 7 spot. This will automatically make their infield defense better and give them 40+ HRs from both LF and 1B. The rest of their lineup is solid and their pitching is decent. They should compete with the Cubs for the Division for much of the year. If Ben Sheets is able to stay healthy and actually make 34 starts and pitch 220+ innings, the Brewers will likely win the division. (Note: The last year Sheets had over 200 IP was 2004) If not, they simply don't have the pitching. 83-86 wins and 2nd in the division
3. Cincinnati Reds: The Reds are the hardest team to project in this division. They have the talent to compete and even win this division but lack the experience. A good pitching staff is anchored by Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo. Harang is perhaps one of the most underrated pitchers in baseball. The addition of sinkerball pitcher Josh Fogg and another year of experience for uber-prospect Homer Bailey should give them 4 good starters. Their projected lineup is solid. Griffey can still hack and Adam Dunn is a guarantee for 40HR/100RBI and the requisite 160 K to go with it. Ryan Freel needs to stay healthy and 1B prospect Joey Votto needs to grow up fast for the Reds to take the division. They will compete and several of their pitchers arms may fall off with Dusty Baker as their manager. 80-85 wins
4. Houston Astros: When your key addition is an aging SS who is promptly outted as a juicer the next day and Ed Wade is your new GM...its gonna be a long season. Mr. Wade, of Philadelphia fame, promptly traded away the entire farm system for Miguel Tejada. In his defense he may have been severely intoxicated at the time. So the Stros have no depth and a mediocre SS...and 5th OF Michael Bourn is their starting CF. Bourn...AKA Joey Gathright Version 2.0 is very fast and can probably steal 40 bases...that is if he can actually get on base 40 times in a season. Look for Roy Oswalt losing another year of his prime on a weak team and for Carlos Lee to grow fatter. OF Hunter Pence, who will now be a corner outfielder instead of in his natural position should have a solid sophomore campaign and Lance Berkman will be solid as well. 75 Wins...if everything goes right.
5. St. Louis Cardinals: Albert Pujols may need Tommy John surgery. That was the best news of the off-season for the Cardinals in what was a very long off season. Their major off-season acquisition was 4th Starter Kyle Lohse who will be good for eating innings and little else. Trading Rolen for Glaus is a wash and the little engine that could, David Eckstein, has joined his infield mate in Toronto. A full year of Rich Ankiel in CF should be interesting. He has power (and HGH) but still doesn't know how to hit a breaking ball. After hitting .328 in Aug, most pitchers adjusted to him last Sep after his hot start and he batted .261 with 22 K for in 111 AB for the month because of it. It will be long year that will only get longer if and when Pujols elbow blows out for good. 70 wins.
6. Pittsburgh Pirates: Why fix what isn't broke. No major additions outside of the front office almost guarantees the Pirates another losing season. They have several good players but no great players and not enough depth to compete even in the NL Central. 65-70 wins
NL East:
1. Philadelphia Phillies: It will be very close...very close for the Phillies to repeat as NL East champs. The acquisition of Johan Santana by the Mets was not the deathknell that many in Philly thought it to be. The Mets have just as many question marks as the Fightin' Phils. A truly outstanding lineup featuring 2 MVPs in Rollins and Howard along with the best 2B in baseball Chase Utley has not weakened one bit this off-season. The siging of Pedro Feliz will add another 25 HRs to the mix and moving Shane Victorino to CF will allow him to showcase his blazing speed and powerful arm. LF Pat Burrell is in a contract year and is always good for 30 HR/90 RBI and the RF platoon of Geoff Jenkins and Jason Werth should be solid. The pitching is questionable after Brett Myers and Cole Hamels but the Phillies lineup should score enough runs to keep them in almost every game. Look for a disappointing 2nd season for 1st year standout Kyle Kendrick but hopefully Jamie Moyer has just enough left in the tank and a combination of Adam Eaton and Kris Benson (when he's back healthy) will be just enough pitching to win another division. 90-95 wins
2. NY Mets: Johan Santana. The best pitcher in baseball is going to a pitchers park in Shea and much weaker NL lineups. If he stays healthy look for him to nab another Cy Young. However, after that, there are many question marks. The combination of 3B David Wright and SS Jose Reyes gives them the best left side of the infield in the National League and Beltran will be solid in the outfield. Delgado is a huge question to stay healthy and a combination of Pagan and Church at the outfield corners will make for a long season for Mets fans. The acquisition of Santana pushes Pedro Martinez to #2 in the rotation and will help keep him fresh. John Maine should have another solid season as well. It will be close between them and the Phillies. 90-95 wins.
3. Atlanta Braves: The Braves could easily win this division. They could easily finish 3rd as well. They have a very solid lineup and excellent pitching as always. If Smoltz, Hudson, Glavine, and Hampton all stay healthy, the Phillies and Mets may look up in the standings to see Atlanta leading the division. The odds of all 4 staying healthy is slim to none however. Their lineup features a good mix of veterans and young players. 3B Chipper Jones is quietly cementing a HOF career while RF Jeff Francouer is emerging as one of the best RFs in all of baseball. The addition of a full year of 1B Mark Teixera will give them enough offense to compete in this division. 85-90 wins.
4. Washington Nationals: They will enjoy their beautiful new stadium this year located along the picturesque Anacostia River in DC. Other than that, it will be a long season. They simply don't have enough hitting or pitching to compete in this division. 70 Wins
5. Florida Marlins: Well, the good news is that they have a new stadium deal in place with the city of Miami. The bad news is that they'll be lucky to average 10,000 fans this year as they have the least recognizable lineup in all of baseball. Their two remaining holdovers from the 2003 WS are gone with the trade of Cabrera/Willis to Detroit for a boatload of prospects. Expect a poor season from prospect Cameron Maybin if he is called up as he really needs another season in AAA but most likely won't get it in this organization. All-star SS Hanley Ramirez is the lone bright spot in this very very young team. There is much hope for the future though. 60-65 wins
Division Winners:
NL West: Dodgers
NL Central: Cubs
NL East: Phillies
Wildcard: Mets or Diamondbacks
Tomorrow: AL Predictions.
Monday, March 24, 2008
Weekly Recap
Well, there's good news for Ryan Howard and decidedly bad news for the Philadelphia Phillies as Miguel Cabrera has reportedly signed an 8-year, $153 million deal with the Tigers. Despite being 4 years older, Howard will almost certainly demand that that deal be a starting point for any future long-term negotiations with the Phillies. What does this mean for the Phillies? Well, lilkely it means that the Phillies will end up having to choose between signing either Cole Hamels or Ryan Howard long term and they will go with Hamels. That means that Howard could be on the trading block after this year. Of course, they could also open up their wallets and admit that as a team in the 6th largest media market in the country with a new favorable stadium lease and 3 million plus in attendance they can afford to sign both to long-term deals. I personally doubt that will happen though.
In other news, the Phillies rotation and bullpen situation has become much clearer in the past couple of days. Francisco Rosario has been placed on the DL and will not open the season on the roster. Travis Blackley has likely pitched himself out of the rotation and Eaton has continued to be solid in his last couple of starts. As it stands now, this will likely be our starting rotation and bullpen:
Starters:
1. Brett Myers
2. Cole Hamels
3. Jamie Moyer
4. Kyle Kendrick
5. Adam Eaton
Bullpen:
RHP Clay Condrey
RHP Ryan Madson
RHP Chad Durbin
LHP JC Romero
RHP Tom Gordon
CP Brad Lidge
On paper, both are slightly better than the beginning of 2007. That is, assuming there are no injuries of course. The bullpen, if Lidge is solid, looks much better on paper.
In the field the Phillies will field an impressive lineup and a very solid bench and it will likely come down to staying healthy and performing up to the level that they are all capable of for the Phillies to repeat as NL East champs.
Closing Notes: CP B. Lidge pitched in another minor-league game and his velocity (without radar guns) was estimated around 91 MPH. Otherwise he was very solid. However, he needs to get his velocity back to the 95-97 range to be effective against major league hitters and to help make his slider more effective.
Prediction right now: 2008 Record: 90-72
In other news, the Phillies rotation and bullpen situation has become much clearer in the past couple of days. Francisco Rosario has been placed on the DL and will not open the season on the roster. Travis Blackley has likely pitched himself out of the rotation and Eaton has continued to be solid in his last couple of starts. As it stands now, this will likely be our starting rotation and bullpen:
Starters:
1. Brett Myers
2. Cole Hamels
3. Jamie Moyer
4. Kyle Kendrick
5. Adam Eaton
Bullpen:
RHP Clay Condrey
RHP Ryan Madson
RHP Chad Durbin
LHP JC Romero
RHP Tom Gordon
CP Brad Lidge
On paper, both are slightly better than the beginning of 2007. That is, assuming there are no injuries of course. The bullpen, if Lidge is solid, looks much better on paper.
In the field the Phillies will field an impressive lineup and a very solid bench and it will likely come down to staying healthy and performing up to the level that they are all capable of for the Phillies to repeat as NL East champs.
Closing Notes: CP B. Lidge pitched in another minor-league game and his velocity (without radar guns) was estimated around 91 MPH. Otherwise he was very solid. However, he needs to get his velocity back to the 95-97 range to be effective against major league hitters and to help make his slider more effective.
Prediction right now: 2008 Record: 90-72
Wednesday, March 19, 2008
Why Helms For Kline Might Be A Good Idea
Yesterday, I wrote an article giving three good reasons why trading 3B Wes Helms for LHP Steve Kline would be a very bad idea for Pat Gillick and the Phillies. Now I'm gonna flip the coin and give reasons as to why it might be a good idea.
Reason #1: Home/Road Splits - His home/road splits last year and over the past 3 years show him to be a far more effective pitcher outside of San Francisco than inside. Usually this wouldn't make sense but the reason is simple. Steve Kline isn't and never has been a flyball pitcher so having a huge home park doesn't really help him by preventing HRs. Kline is a sinkerball pitcher with extreme groundball tendencies (1.52 GB/FB in 2007, 1.57 GB/FB for 05-07 and 1.79 for his career). Given a good infield defense (i.e. Feliz, Rollins and Utley are all much above average defensively) he should be pretty competitive.
Here are his road numbers over the past 3 years:
By Breakdown
ERA W L SV SVO G GS CG IP H R ER HR BB SO AVG
3.20 4 3 2 6 100 0 0 78.2 67 30 28 9 39 39 .233
Reason #2: Experience - Steve Kline is an experienced setup man. He performed this role admirably for the Cardinals from 2001 -2004 so he has plenty of experience pitching in high pressure situations. While it may be nice to give Blackley a shot at the Big Show, maybe Philly in 08 is not the place to be experimenting. Kline has pitched on playoff teams and could easily fill in as a setup man when injuries start piling up in the Pen.
Reason #3: Why Not? - Helms isn't gonna make the team anyway so the Phillies will have to outright him before the start of the season. Feliz is the starting 3B with no arguments and Bruntlet and Dobbs are far more versatile off the bench anyway. Both can play corner outfield and Bruntlet can capably start at 7 positions and has in the course of his career, so there is no room for Helms anyway.
Reason #4: Addition Through Subtraction - Helms is one of the most "beloved" figures in Phillies history. He probably gained this loyal following by hitting well under .200 at home last year. Getting rid of him can't possibly hurt. If someone like Steve Kline is all we can get for him, so be it.
Either way, we need to get rid of Wes Helms.
Reason #1: Home/Road Splits - His home/road splits last year and over the past 3 years show him to be a far more effective pitcher outside of San Francisco than inside. Usually this wouldn't make sense but the reason is simple. Steve Kline isn't and never has been a flyball pitcher so having a huge home park doesn't really help him by preventing HRs. Kline is a sinkerball pitcher with extreme groundball tendencies (1.52 GB/FB in 2007, 1.57 GB/FB for 05-07 and 1.79 for his career). Given a good infield defense (i.e. Feliz, Rollins and Utley are all much above average defensively) he should be pretty competitive.
Here are his road numbers over the past 3 years:
By Breakdown
ERA W L SV SVO G GS CG IP H R ER HR BB SO AVG
3.20 4 3 2 6 100 0 0 78.2 67 30 28 9 39 39 .233
Reason #2: Experience - Steve Kline is an experienced setup man. He performed this role admirably for the Cardinals from 2001 -2004 so he has plenty of experience pitching in high pressure situations. While it may be nice to give Blackley a shot at the Big Show, maybe Philly in 08 is not the place to be experimenting. Kline has pitched on playoff teams and could easily fill in as a setup man when injuries start piling up in the Pen.
Reason #3: Why Not? - Helms isn't gonna make the team anyway so the Phillies will have to outright him before the start of the season. Feliz is the starting 3B with no arguments and Bruntlet and Dobbs are far more versatile off the bench anyway. Both can play corner outfield and Bruntlet can capably start at 7 positions and has in the course of his career, so there is no room for Helms anyway.
Reason #4: Addition Through Subtraction - Helms is one of the most "beloved" figures in Phillies history. He probably gained this loyal following by hitting well under .200 at home last year. Getting rid of him can't possibly hurt. If someone like Steve Kline is all we can get for him, so be it.
Either way, we need to get rid of Wes Helms.
Tuesday, March 18, 2008
Strong Outing By Hamels
Cole Hamels went 6 very strong innings this afternoon, striking out 7 and walking none against the Tampa Bay Rays. The sole blemish on his performance was a 2-out HR by probable Rookie of the Year candidate Evan Longoria. The most important to me in this performance was the 7K/0 BB ratio that Hamels was able to put up. When Hamels is on, he is one of the most dominating pitchers in baseball and his changeup is almost unhittable. Between Hamels and Myers the Phillies have a very solid 1-2 punch and will be very tough to beat in a 5 game series. Unfortunately, after Hamels and Myers, its a different story. Moyer should have at least one more year of league-average pitching in him and will make a decent #3 guy. Huge question marks start with Kendrick at #4 and the Eaton/Benson/Rosario/Castro quagmire for the #5 slot.
The Phillies hitting has continued to struggle but there have been several glimmers of hope in the last couple of days. Going into today, the projected starters had put 2 very solid games in a row together. Today, the starting lineup went 4-20 through the first 6 innings. However, they were very efficient by putting up 4 runs on only 4 hits so their situational hitting was solid today.
Frankly, I'm not concerned about the hitting at all. I know that it will come together and that the Phillies lineup will be scary again this year despite the much whined about departure of Aaron Rowand. You have to wonder about a guy that would leave a playoff team to willingly sign a long-term deal with one of the worst teams in the National League. A full year of Victorino and the Jenkins/Werth platoon along with a fully healthy Ryan Howard should erase any memories of Rowand's performance.
In closing, its a very good sign to see Hamels finally face a big league lineup and dominate it for 6 innings and it should help the confidence of the rest of the rotation to have two very solid starters to anchor them this season.
The Phillies hitting has continued to struggle but there have been several glimmers of hope in the last couple of days. Going into today, the projected starters had put 2 very solid games in a row together. Today, the starting lineup went 4-20 through the first 6 innings. However, they were very efficient by putting up 4 runs on only 4 hits so their situational hitting was solid today.
Frankly, I'm not concerned about the hitting at all. I know that it will come together and that the Phillies lineup will be scary again this year despite the much whined about departure of Aaron Rowand. You have to wonder about a guy that would leave a playoff team to willingly sign a long-term deal with one of the worst teams in the National League. A full year of Victorino and the Jenkins/Werth platoon along with a fully healthy Ryan Howard should erase any memories of Rowand's performance.
In closing, its a very good sign to see Hamels finally face a big league lineup and dominate it for 6 innings and it should help the confidence of the rest of the rotation to have two very solid starters to anchor them this season.
Why Wes Helms For Steve Kline Is A Bad Idea
The Daily News mentioned an interesting trade possiblity today. 3B Wes Helms to the San Francisco Giants for LHP Steve Kline. Here's why its a bad idea:
Reason #1: Steve Kline is supposedly a situational left-handed pitcher out of the bullpen (i.e. LOOGY). However, he sucks against left-handed hitters. Of course, to be fair, he sucks against right-handed hitters too but that's what he supposedly is. Over the past 3 seasons, leftys have batted .299 against Kline with an OPB of .356. Last year, at age 34, he was even worse: .318 AVG/.375 OBP. Basically, he turns left-handed hitters into Vlad Guerrero, which is not a good thing. Mind you he pitched more than half his innings in a very pitcher friendly home park which makes his numbers even worse than they already look.
Reason #2: This trade takes away any shot that Travis Blackley has of making the bullpen as the second lefty. If we acquired Kline, there would be no reason to keep a 3rd LHP pitcher in the pen so Blackley would be offered back (ironically) to San Francisco as he is a Rule V Draft Pick. So the trade would essentially be 3B Helms and LHP Blackley for LHP Kline. If the Phillies are really this interested in a 2nd LHP in the bullpen they might as well go with Blackley. He can't be any worse than Kline this year. At least he has the advantage of youth on his side.
Reason #3: Steve Kline Walks more batters than he strikes out. Last year he walked 18 batters and struck out 17. So he's just as likely to come in and make a situation worse by putting another runner on as he is to prevent inherited runs from scoring by striking out the batter. Also his K/BB ratio has declined for 3 straight years. Such a K/BB decline is usually a pretty good sign that a pitchers career is coming to a close.
Personally, I'd rather cut Wes Helms outright than trade him for Steve Kline.
Reason #1: Steve Kline is supposedly a situational left-handed pitcher out of the bullpen (i.e. LOOGY). However, he sucks against left-handed hitters. Of course, to be fair, he sucks against right-handed hitters too but that's what he supposedly is. Over the past 3 seasons, leftys have batted .299 against Kline with an OPB of .356. Last year, at age 34, he was even worse: .318 AVG/.375 OBP. Basically, he turns left-handed hitters into Vlad Guerrero, which is not a good thing. Mind you he pitched more than half his innings in a very pitcher friendly home park which makes his numbers even worse than they already look.
Reason #2: This trade takes away any shot that Travis Blackley has of making the bullpen as the second lefty. If we acquired Kline, there would be no reason to keep a 3rd LHP pitcher in the pen so Blackley would be offered back (ironically) to San Francisco as he is a Rule V Draft Pick. So the trade would essentially be 3B Helms and LHP Blackley for LHP Kline. If the Phillies are really this interested in a 2nd LHP in the bullpen they might as well go with Blackley. He can't be any worse than Kline this year. At least he has the advantage of youth on his side.
Reason #3: Steve Kline Walks more batters than he strikes out. Last year he walked 18 batters and struck out 17. So he's just as likely to come in and make a situation worse by putting another runner on as he is to prevent inherited runs from scoring by striking out the batter. Also his K/BB ratio has declined for 3 straight years. Such a K/BB decline is usually a pretty good sign that a pitchers career is coming to a close.
Personally, I'd rather cut Wes Helms outright than trade him for Steve Kline.
Monday, March 17, 2008
Benson Suffers Setback
Benson suffered an undisclosed injury today during a throwing session at Spring Training. The Phillies have not commented on the injury so far, but Benson is quoted as saying that it may be "bicep tendinitis". What this means for the Phillies is that there is no way he will be ready for the start of the season now.
The only thing they can really do is rest his arm if it is tendinitis and this will delay any strengthening exercises he can do for at least a week or two assuming non-surgerical treatment is effective. However, this is one of those injures that often will not go away, especially considering he just had major shoulder surgery last year. Minimum recovery time before the average person can resume activity following this type of injury is 2-3 weeks.
Define Mediocre
1. of only ordinary or moderate quality; neither good nor bad; barely adequate. See Chad Durbin
Durbin pitched 5 decent innings today and looked very solid right up to the point where he gave up a 2-run HR in the 5th. Still, his pitches looked crisp and he all in all gave a solid performance. Sadly, an game ERA of 5.40 is now solid when it comes to the Phillies pitching staff. Durbin is somewhat of a mystery. He doesn't throw very hard, doesn't really have any real plus pitches, and is basically a tribute to the overall dearth of quality pitching in the majors as he has somehow hung around to the ripe age of 31 while sporting a career ERA of 5.75. Given the amount of AAA pitchers who could probably post the same numbers as him, it is truly a mystery that he is still in baseball. On average, he strikes out about 5.1 per 9 IP and walks 3.7 for his career (4.6 K/9, 3.5 BB/9 in 2007). There is nothing to suggest that he can be anything more than a long-reliever kind of guy for the Phillies this year. At 31, he has almost no upsides other than saving the rest of the bullpen during blowouts. Anyone expecting anything else from Durbin will be sorely disappointed this year.
Durbin pitched 5 decent innings today and looked very solid right up to the point where he gave up a 2-run HR in the 5th. Still, his pitches looked crisp and he all in all gave a solid performance. Sadly, an game ERA of 5.40 is now solid when it comes to the Phillies pitching staff. Durbin is somewhat of a mystery. He doesn't throw very hard, doesn't really have any real plus pitches, and is basically a tribute to the overall dearth of quality pitching in the majors as he has somehow hung around to the ripe age of 31 while sporting a career ERA of 5.75. Given the amount of AAA pitchers who could probably post the same numbers as him, it is truly a mystery that he is still in baseball. On average, he strikes out about 5.1 per 9 IP and walks 3.7 for his career (4.6 K/9, 3.5 BB/9 in 2007). There is nothing to suggest that he can be anything more than a long-reliever kind of guy for the Phillies this year. At 31, he has almost no upsides other than saving the rest of the bullpen during blowouts. Anyone expecting anything else from Durbin will be sorely disappointed this year.
Phils Look For Two In a Row
"We won a game today. We win one tomorrow that's two in a row. We win one that next day, that's what's known as a winning streak boys. It has happened before" -Manager Lou Brown, Major League 2
Its pretty sad that I'm desperately hoping for 2 wins in a row in the 3rd week of Spring Training, but I am. The Phillies really need to get moving or its gonna be a long season. Hopefully Myers' strong outing yesterday will energize the rest of the rotation and we'll actually see some respectable Major League pitching instead of the bush league crap the Phillies have been feeding us so far this spring. Chad Durbin (as if it matters which Durbin) will take the ball today and hopefully go several strong innings. Right now, Durbin is looking to be a solid lock for the 6 spot in the Bullpen behind Lidge, Gordon, Madson, Romero and Condrey. The other open spot will likely fall to LHP Travis Blackley or RHP Francisco Rosario. Blackley may have the edge as they are looking for a 2nd Lefty in the Bullpen and he is a Rule V draft pick who has to stay on the 25-man roster or be offered back to the Giants. Neither has exactly wowed the Phils staff so far this Spring.
Its pretty sad that I'm desperately hoping for 2 wins in a row in the 3rd week of Spring Training, but I am. The Phillies really need to get moving or its gonna be a long season. Hopefully Myers' strong outing yesterday will energize the rest of the rotation and we'll actually see some respectable Major League pitching instead of the bush league crap the Phillies have been feeding us so far this spring. Chad Durbin (as if it matters which Durbin) will take the ball today and hopefully go several strong innings. Right now, Durbin is looking to be a solid lock for the 6 spot in the Bullpen behind Lidge, Gordon, Madson, Romero and Condrey. The other open spot will likely fall to LHP Travis Blackley or RHP Francisco Rosario. Blackley may have the edge as they are looking for a 2nd Lefty in the Bullpen and he is a Rule V draft pick who has to stay on the 25-man roster or be offered back to the Giants. Neither has exactly wowed the Phils staff so far this Spring.
Sunday, March 16, 2008
Strong Outing By Myers
Myers went 7 strong innings today and gave up 2 ER getting the win. At least one pitcher is having a strong Spring. In other news, Howard kept up his strong Spring going 1-3.
Phillies Win!
Phillies Win!
Saturday, March 15, 2008
Complacency In Clearwater
At the halfway mark of Spring Training, the Phillies are at a dismal 5-11-1 so far and none of the regulars are hitting. In fact, 6 of the projected regulars are batting below .250 for the Spring. Manager Charlie Manuel says it is time for the Phillies to start taking the Spring seriously. (see link below). So far the Phillies have coasted through the entire Spring with little apparent concern for the upcoming season. The hitting has been dismal and the pitching non-existent.
After his calling out of the clubhouse yesterday afternoon, Charlie's speech had little effect as the Phillies dropped to the Twins 11-2. The sole bright spot in the schlacking would have to be a strong performance by projected 5th Starter Adam Eaton. Eaton pitched 3 strong innings and gave up 5 hits for no runs and struck out 2. JD Durbin came in to start the 4th and promptly gave up 5 ER to start the blowout. As for the complacent hitters...5-33 (.152) as a team on the day. This lose drops them to 5-12-1 on the Spring.
The Phillies need to pick themselves up and start taking the season seriously or they will quickly start the season playing from behind as they did last year and seemingly ever year in recent memory.
Charlie Manuel Calls Out Phillies
After his calling out of the clubhouse yesterday afternoon, Charlie's speech had little effect as the Phillies dropped to the Twins 11-2. The sole bright spot in the schlacking would have to be a strong performance by projected 5th Starter Adam Eaton. Eaton pitched 3 strong innings and gave up 5 hits for no runs and struck out 2. JD Durbin came in to start the 4th and promptly gave up 5 ER to start the blowout. As for the complacent hitters...5-33 (.152) as a team on the day. This lose drops them to 5-12-1 on the Spring.
The Phillies need to pick themselves up and start taking the season seriously or they will quickly start the season playing from behind as they did last year and seemingly ever year in recent memory.
Charlie Manuel Calls Out Phillies
Friday, March 14, 2008
A Closer Look At Francisco Rosario
Up until today, Francisco Rosario had be having an excellent spring and there were rumors out of Phillies camp that he had a strong shot at the starting rotation if he could keep up his excellent play. He is known for having a mid-90s fastball, a good changeup and a nasty slider. The biggest knock against him has always been his control. He walks too many batters and he has trouble hitting his spots. When he's on, he can dominate but more often than not he simply can't locate his pitches. Also, at 27, he can no longer be considered a prospect but more of a minor league journeyman. That being said, he was given the start this afternoon against the Atlanta Braves. As with most the Phillies candidates for the 5th starter slot, Rosario was absolutely hammered by the Braves lineup. His line for the game was as follows:
Francisco Rosario
IP - 2.0
H - 3
R - 6
ER - 6
BB - 2
SO - 0
HR - 1
This outing transformed what had been an excellent early spring (1.04 ERA) to a typical Phillies 5th Starter (5.94 ERA in 10 2/3 IP)
So where do the Phillies go from here? If everything stays the same the Phillies will go into the season with a Starting Rotation of:
1. Brett Myers
2. Cole Hamels
3. Jamie Moyer
4. Kyle Kendrick
5. Adam Eaton
Both Eaton and Kendrick have been atrocious so far this spring but hopefully at least one of them can turn it around. Eaton has always had good stuff but has never been able to either stay healthy or be consistent for an entire season. Kendrick's secondary numbers do not suggest that he will put up a repeat performance of his 2007 effort (10-4, ERA under 4 in 20 starts).
It is still very early in Spring Training, and the Phillies still have 2 full weeks for a 5th starter to emerge from the pile of 6th and 7th starters they currently have in camp. At least the hitting has been decent so far this spring.
Francisco Rosario
IP - 2.0
H - 3
R - 6
ER - 6
BB - 2
SO - 0
HR - 1
This outing transformed what had been an excellent early spring (1.04 ERA) to a typical Phillies 5th Starter (5.94 ERA in 10 2/3 IP)
So where do the Phillies go from here? If everything stays the same the Phillies will go into the season with a Starting Rotation of:
1. Brett Myers
2. Cole Hamels
3. Jamie Moyer
4. Kyle Kendrick
5. Adam Eaton
Both Eaton and Kendrick have been atrocious so far this spring but hopefully at least one of them can turn it around. Eaton has always had good stuff but has never been able to either stay healthy or be consistent for an entire season. Kendrick's secondary numbers do not suggest that he will put up a repeat performance of his 2007 effort (10-4, ERA under 4 in 20 starts).
It is still very early in Spring Training, and the Phillies still have 2 full weeks for a 5th starter to emerge from the pile of 6th and 7th starters they currently have in camp. At least the hitting has been decent so far this spring.
Colon or Benson?
Pat Gillick and the Fightin' Phils had a choice this winter of several scrap heap veteran pitchers of which to sign for the 5th Starter slot. Many names were brought up in the course of the offseason to include Randy Wolf, Matt Clement, Jeff Weaver, Bartolo Colon, Kris Benson, and even the late great Sydney Ponson. Both Wolf and Clement made statements that they were not interested one bit in playing in the little league park known as The Bank in South Philly. Weaver was never really on the Phillies radar due to dismal performances over the past couple of years and Ponson turned out to be an unfounded rumor. However, both Colon and Benson were mentioned several times as top candidates to have bounceback seasons in 2008. Both were coming off major shoulder surgery (traditionally the deathknell of a starting pitchers' career) and both hadn't really pitched well since 2005. Most importantly, both were only looking for 1 year deals at the veteran minimum. However, whereas Colon was a Cy Young winner in 05, Benson has never been more than a 3rd or 4th starter. So logically the Phillies and Pat Gillick focused more and more on Kris Benson. They attended three separate tryouts to guage his progress in recovering from surgery and apparently were impressed each time. Finally, last month, they signed him to a minor-league deal with incentives for making the 25 man roster.
So far this spring, neither has pitched all that much. Benson has been limited strictly to minor-league action as he continues to build arm strength. He has looked solid so far, throwing his fastball, cutter, and curve. His fastball has been clocked regularly at 86 MPH and he has hit 88 at times during his handful of starts. According to team doctors, he is right on schedule with his recovery and will be ready to start in the Majors by early May. All in all, good news for the Phillies and I was very happy with his signing until last night.
Last night, Bartolo Colon made his first spring start for the defending World Series Champion Boston Red Sox. He pitched 2 innings, threw 26 pitches and looked outstanding. He changed speeds, threw all his pitches and hit 94 MPH consistently with his 4-seam FB. He was able to locate his pitches and he retired the final 6 batters on 10 pitches. Basically he looked to be in mid-season form. Now, Colon may never again be the 100 MPH Cy Young winner he was in 2005 but if he stays healthy he could easily win 15 games this year for the Red Sox. Benson will likely be the 5th starter for the Phillies from May onward and could possibly move up in the rotation if Kendrick implodes, Hamels gets injured, Moyer remembers he is 45 etc etc.
If both stay healthy, it is almost a guarantee that Colon will have the better year. He has always had the better stuff by far of the two and he is on a better team in the AL. He won't have to worry about hitting or being pulled for a PH in the 5th or 6th inning of a tie game like a NL pitcher would.
Ultimately, the Phillies refusal to spend money (even the bare minimum) and their refusal to take smart risks will hamstring their chances of repeating as NL East champs in 08. The smart play would have been to try and sign both and bank on one their 5 projected starters getting injured. It happens every year so why should 2008 be any different? Once again the Phillies will win around 85 wins and be competitive and we will all cheer them on as they fall just short of true greatness. Its only March, but its gonna be a long year in South Philly.
So far this spring, neither has pitched all that much. Benson has been limited strictly to minor-league action as he continues to build arm strength. He has looked solid so far, throwing his fastball, cutter, and curve. His fastball has been clocked regularly at 86 MPH and he has hit 88 at times during his handful of starts. According to team doctors, he is right on schedule with his recovery and will be ready to start in the Majors by early May. All in all, good news for the Phillies and I was very happy with his signing until last night.
Last night, Bartolo Colon made his first spring start for the defending World Series Champion Boston Red Sox. He pitched 2 innings, threw 26 pitches and looked outstanding. He changed speeds, threw all his pitches and hit 94 MPH consistently with his 4-seam FB. He was able to locate his pitches and he retired the final 6 batters on 10 pitches. Basically he looked to be in mid-season form. Now, Colon may never again be the 100 MPH Cy Young winner he was in 2005 but if he stays healthy he could easily win 15 games this year for the Red Sox. Benson will likely be the 5th starter for the Phillies from May onward and could possibly move up in the rotation if Kendrick implodes, Hamels gets injured, Moyer remembers he is 45 etc etc.
If both stay healthy, it is almost a guarantee that Colon will have the better year. He has always had the better stuff by far of the two and he is on a better team in the AL. He won't have to worry about hitting or being pulled for a PH in the 5th or 6th inning of a tie game like a NL pitcher would.
Ultimately, the Phillies refusal to spend money (even the bare minimum) and their refusal to take smart risks will hamstring their chances of repeating as NL East champs in 08. The smart play would have been to try and sign both and bank on one their 5 projected starters getting injured. It happens every year so why should 2008 be any different? Once again the Phillies will win around 85 wins and be competitive and we will all cheer them on as they fall just short of true greatness. Its only March, but its gonna be a long year in South Philly.
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