Minor League Spotlight - Pitching Prospects

It's early yet but its been an impressive debut for several of the top prospects in the Phillies system. The Phillies farm system has taken huge strides in the past few years and is now generally rated around #12 by most scouting organizations. Several top prospects made their season debuts tonight and all of them impressed.

SP Carlos Carrasco (AAA) - Carrasco is generally considered the top pitching prospect in the Phillies system and one of the top 50 prospects in all of baseball. He features a low 90s fastball, a very good changeup (generally his best pitch) and a decent curve. He starts the year in AAA playing for the Iron Pigs after losing a long-shot bid to crack the Phillies Opening Day rotation. Still just 23 years of age, the future is bright. His numbers tonight against a good Yankees minor-league squad: 6 IP, 0 ER, 0 R, 4 H, 4 K, 0 BB. Not too shabby from Carlos against very good competition.

SP Joe Savery (AA) - Savery's 2008 campaign was generally considered a complete bust. He was self-admittedly out of shape in his first full year of pro ball. His velocity was well down from his college days at Rice where he was generally in the low 90s. His fastball hovered in the low-to-mid 80s last season and got hammered at times because of it. He reportedly re-committed himself to playing baseball and is finally fully healthy after a 2 year recovery from major shoulder surgery. He won't be fast-tracked to the Majors like many thought this time last year but there is reason to be hopeful. His velocity was back up in Spring Training and he started off the season on a good note: 6 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 1 R, 8 K, 1 HR. It will be interesting to see where he is on his fastball but his box score is quite impressive. Hopefully he is able to continue this level of production throughout the season. If he can, he will once again be a top prospect in the Phillies system.

SP Kyle Drabek (A+) - Kyle has been a long way back from arm surgery. He has impressed many in the organization with his new found maturity and work ethic. Drabek originally fell to the Phillies due to concerns over both and he could end up being the steal of that draft. He features a mid-90s fastball, a heavy hammer curve and a decent change. Drabek probably has the best pure stuff of any pitcher in their system and he could quickly overtake Carrasco as the top prospect if he continues on this path. Finally ready for a full season of pro ball, Drabek should impress. I fully expect him to end the season in Reading and be pushing for a spot on the major league club in 2010. His line yesterday: 5.2 IP, 2 ER, 2 R, 3 BB, 7 K and the Win.

SP Drew Naylor (A+) - Naylor dominated at Lakewood last year but was old for that league. He was quickly promoted to High A and his numbers suffered as a result. After a disappointing performance in Clearwater (3-7, 4.85 ERA), he will repeat that level to start 2009. As an Aussie import, its important to remember that his developmental curve is different than a typical North American prospect but at Age 23 (he turns 23 on May 31st) in High A ball, he needs to start moving. He started off his season on a good note: 5 IP, 6 H, 3 R, 2 ER, 1 BB, 4 K.

SP Jason Knapp (A) - Jason Knapp is the product of the Northeast and is thus used to pitching in cold and miserable weather. So lucky for him, he'll be pitching in Lakewood to start the season. As he's just 18 years of age (he turns 19 in August), he could have a bright future if he stays healthy. He was drafted last year out of High School due to his high 90's fastball and projectable frame. He could regularly hit 97 mph on his fastball in high school and there is every reason to believe he will build on that pure stuff. He starts the year in Lakewood (impressive for his age) and could move fairly quickly if his secondary stuff develops. His line today: 5.2 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 1 R, 3 BB, 10 K.

So, all in all, the future looks bright.

Minor League Spotlight - SP Carlos Carrasco

The cupboard is pretty bare for the Philadelphia Phillies farm system but there are still a couple of decent prospects that bear following. AA Reading SP Carlos Carrasco is one of them. Carrasco has been rated as the Phillies top prospect for the past two seasons and with good reason. The young Venezuelan possesses 4 pitches and he is starting to turn the corner this season for the Reading Phillies. Carrasco throws a plus fastball and a plus changeup as well as a slider and curveball. Both the slider and curve are more of show-me pitches at the moment and they sometimes merge into a slurve but his fastball has good velocity (93-95 mph). His change is his out-pitch and it works best when its thrown hard in the low to mid 80's. When his control is on, he is a very tough pitcher to beat. So far this season, he has really gotten a handle on his control. He has shown drastic improvement from last season and he is looking more and more like the #2/#3 pitcher he was projected to be when he signed with the organization at age 18.

So far this year he is off to a very good start in Reading posting an impressive 3.64 ERA in his first 14 starts. His record is a more modest 5-6 but that is more an illustration of poor run support than anything else. Impressively he has struck out 89 batters in 94 IP while walking just 35. This is a vast improvement over his 2007 numbers as seen below:

2007 (AA): 70.1 IP, 49 K (6.27 K/9), 46 BB (5.89 BB/9), 1.07 K/BB
2008 (AA): 94.0 IP, 89 K (8.52 K/9), 35 BB (3.35 BB/9), 2.54 K/BB

You can clearly see huge upswing in his numbers from last year to this season. Carrasco is demonstrating that he is very close to being ready for The Show. Considering the huge holes in the Phillies rotation, that is not a bad thing.

Carrasco just turned 21 this March and he clearly has lots of room to grow. However, considering the poor performances by some of the Phillies rotation, he may have to learn on the job as Kyle Kendrick did last season. I will not be surprised to see him in a Phillies uniform sometime in the second half of the season and almost definitely no later than Spring Training 2009. For now he will continue to polish his game in AA and wait for the Phillies to call.

Phillies Prospect Watch

The Phillies don't exactly have the best minor-league system in Major League Baseball. In fact they tend to be rated in the bottom 3rd when it comes to prospects. Baseball America puts them at 21st out of 30 for their minor league system and Baseball Prospect only gives them 2 players in the top 100 prospects in baseball (#96 Joe Savery and #68 Carlos Carrasco). Neither project as more than a #3 Starter at this point. That being said, here is a quick list of the "healthy" prospects in the Phillies system. I say healthy because I'm not even gonna talk about the bevy of young arms the Phillies have that have had Tommy John surgery in the past year and are thus huge questionmarks from here on out. In case you're wondering Kyle Drabek and Scott Mathieson are on that list. So here goes:

Clearwater Threshers:

LHP Joe Savery: Has been dominant so far in 3 appearances (20 IP, 0.90 ERA, 13 Ks) and will probably end up in AA before long. As one of the Phillies top pitching prospects he will probably be rushed to the majors as soon as possible...he needs to be as he is already 22 years old and in Single A. His K rate is a little low for A ball but overall he has been impressive.

LHP Antonio Bastardo: Has also been dominant in the first couple weeks especially against leftys. Leftys are batting .000 against him with 7 Ks in 8 ABs. Overall he has 17 Ks in 10 IP with an ERA of 0.90 in 2 starts. He's 23 years old so he needs to get moving. In 2005, he struck out 63 batters in 38 innings in Rookie ball where he was used as a closer. He throws a power fastball with movement in the low to mid 90's but his secondary pitches need work. He's also undersized at 5'11", 180lbs. I'd love to find out more about him as his numbers make him look dominant.

2B Adrian Cardenas: Possibly the 2B of the future and one of the Phillies top position prospects. By the time he makes the majors (he'll be 21 this October, Utley will likely be the 1B so it won't matter. He's off to a hot start in Single A batting .378 in 45 ABs. One troubling sign...he's only walked 1 time in 46 plate appearances. Also he only has 3 extra base hits out of 17 total hits. He needs to learn patience at the plate or he'll never make it to the majors. One good thing is that his K rate (6 Ks total) is also very low so he's a very high contact hitter who probably should be in AA.

OF Matt Spencer: Huge power threat from the left side of the plate. He projects more as a 1B than an OF but we'll see. He also strikes out a ton (similar to Ryan Howard). He's off to a pretty good start in Clearwater but his power numbers are down early on. Line: .300 AVG, .340 OBP, 3 2B, 1 HR, 4 RBI, 3 BB, 7 Ks in 40 ABs. He turned 22 in January.

Reading Phillies:

RHP Carlos Carrasco: Rated as the Phils top prospect and projected as a middle of the rotation guy (i.e. 3rd starter). He's been strong so far. In 2 starts he's pitched 11 innings and struck out 14 while walking 4 with an ERA of 2.45. He could be on the MLB roster by the end of the season.

LHP Josh Outman: Another of the Phils top pitching prospects...he projects as a #4 or 5 guy or bullpen reliever (the Phillies system is kinda thin). He throws low 90's with his fastball and throws a good slider. He needs to work on his control though. In 2 starts he's piched 11 innings and struck out 12 while walking 6 for an ERA of 1.64. He's also allowed alot of hits (14 total in 11 innings) so he hasn't been dominant as much as hes gotten lucky to have such a low ERA.

LHP Fabio Castro: Rule V guy who should be in the majors right now if only he had any control of his pitches. Still he's been good so far with 12 K in 12 IP with "only" 6 BB and 6 hits allowed for an ERA of 0.75. He's another guy who we could see in a Phillies uniform if there are injuries and/or Kendrick completely collapses.

RHP Andrew Carpenter: He wowed Manuel and Gillick in that last spring training game but he has struggled so far at AA. (3 Starts: 16 2/3 IP, 22 H, 7 BB, 9 Ks, 5.94 ERA). He is better than those numbers suggest and will probably improve drastically as the season progresses.

OF Greg Golson: So far he's off to a good start in AA but he still is striking out a bunch and not taking a walk. He will be a bust as a prospect if he doesn't learn some discipline at the plate. So far he's batting .326 with an OBP of .356. He's also struck out 12 times in only 43 ABs with just 2 BBs. He is a perfect 7 for 7 in stolen bases though.

C Lou Marson: This is the guy will be the Phillies starting catcher in probably 2-3 years and Ruiz will be the backup...he's better than Ruiz in all aspects of the game including hitting. So far he's been pretty good in Reading batting .333 with an OBP of .438 in his first 8 games. He's the catcher of the future and the reason that C Jason Jarromillo in AAA probably won't ever start for the Phillies...oh and he's turn 22 this June.

SS Jason Donald: He projects as a utility player right now but could turn into a competent 2B (most scouting reports I've seen project him as a 2B not a SS. Rollins and Utley are blocking him in the majors so its kinda tough to figure where's he's gonna play. He's playing pretty well right now batting .269 with an OBP of .387. He'll be 24 in September so he's not exactly a young prospect

2B Brad Harmon: An Aussie import who projects as a utility infielder with a little bit of power and average defense. He's off to a slow start batting .171 in his first 11 games.

Lehigh Valley IronPigs:

First off, the Phillies don't have any real prospects in AAA so here goes:

LHP Travis Blackley: Blackley could probably be in Philly right now as the 2nd lefty in the Pen if the Phillies needed him. He has dominated leftys so far in the minors (.100 in 6 2/3 IP against leftys). The problem is that right handed hitters turn into Rogers Hornsby against him batting .353 so far this year. He's striking out exactly 1 batter per inning and his walk rate (the reason he didn't make the roster instead of Condrey) is bareable with 4 BBs in 10 IPs. He might end up doing a spot start as the options for spot starting this year are him, JA Happ or JD Durbin.

C Jason Jaromillo: He's the only other player on the IronPigs roster who should ever see a Major League uniform. He's off to a dreadful start but he's still an outstanding defensive catcher. He'll probably end up as a backup somewhere in the majors in the next few years. Right now he's batting .138 with a slugging percentage of .345. His biggest problem is that he'll be 26 this year and he is not a young prospect anymore. He did bat .271 last year in Scranton and he could easily replace Coste as the backup right now if something were to happen. The phillies are set at Catcher for the next several years between Ruiz, Jarromillo, and Marson

And Then there were 11...

Travis Blackley, the Rule V draft pick from San Fran, has been sent packing. It is no guarantee that he won't end up back in Allentown with the IronPigs but for now he has been placed on waivers. Once, and if, he clears waivers he will be offered back to the Giants who may or may not take him. If they decide to not reclaim him, he will have the choice of taking a minor league deal from the Phillies or becoming an outright free agent. That being said I hope he somehow makes it through all of that and ends of in Allentown because he has the talent to pitch in the big leagues even if the control is not quite there.

With his departure, the Phillies are down to 11 "healthy" pitchers in camp. One of these is J.D. Durbin who has no business being in a major league uniform with the Spring he has had. Once a good possibility for the 5th starter position or even a bullpen slot, he quickly pitched his way out of either. Only an injury to Lidge and horrid springs by several other pitchers in camp have prevented his departure.

Right now it looks as if the Phillies may begin the season with only 11 pitchers on the 25 man roster. This will allow them to hang on to either Wes Helms or Chris Snelling. Neither player can be sent down without being exposed to waivers and it is likely that they would be snagged by other clubs that have issues in their infield such as SF or the LA Dodgers. Hopefully the Phillies will bite the bullet and end the Wes Helms experiment and hang onto Snelling who has shown glimpses that he can be a solid utility player and pinch-hitter on this club.

On another note, thankfully Spring Training is almost over. The Phillies Spring started off in a dreadful fashion as they went 5-11-1. After that dreadful start, Manager Charlie Manuel essentially ripped the clubhouse a new one and they began to play much better ball. The starting pitching turned it around and they have struggled back up to a 12-15 record with 4 games left to play. Hopefully the Phillies regular season will not have a similar start as the Phils cannot afford to have another sub-.500 April with two other strong teams in the division this year in the Mets and Braves. More so than ever, the Phillies need to get off to a strong start if they are to repeat as NL East Champs.

Closing Thoughts: Brett Myers had another very strong start against the Yankees yesterday, giving up no runs in 5 IPs. SP Andrew Carpenter of Single-A Clearwater fame had a strong outing as well and he may well have opened up some eyes in the Front Office in doing so. Carpenter will start the season in Double-A Reading and is a real possibility for a 2nd Half call up if two things happen. First the Phillies need to have a spot in the rotation or bullpen for him which means either ineffective or injured starters on their part. Second, he has to perform in Reading much like Kendrick did last year. Both are real possibilities. It is almost a guarantee that the Phillies will get a major contribution from one of their pitching prospects this season. Between LHP Joe Savery, RHP Carlos Carrasco, LHP Josh Outman, and RHP Andrew Carpenter, the Phillies have several good mid-level pitching prospects in their system and all 4 are almost ready for Major League action. The door is wide open for any of the 4 to prove themselves. Opening Day is 4 days away!!!