Phillies Lock Up Werth

At this point I don't know what to think about Ruben Amaro Jr. As an ardent basher of Amaro since his days under Ed Wade, I have constantly criticized even the smallest moves by him. This week, Amaro is starting to prove why he was selected to be Pat Gillick's replacement. What was just recently described as a minefield for the Phillies has been quickly and efficiently cleared by the new GM. Amaro has not only been able to quickly avoid arbitration with every eligible player other than 1B Ryan Howard, he has done so with the minimum of long-term cost.

Most impressively, the Phillies signed RF Jayson Werth to a 2 year, $10 million deal. Werth will make $3 million in 2009 and $7 million in 2010. This deal avoids arbitration, keeps Werth in RF through his peak years, and give the Front Office cost certaintly when they need it most. Werth could have possibly gone out in 09, had a great year, and significantly increase a potential payday through Free Agency next fall. He chose the safer, more certain route and took the guaranteed money. The Phillies will have very few holes to fill in 2010 thanks to locking up guys like Werth and reliever Ryan Madson. Pedro Feliz will be gone but could very possibly be replaced by prospect Jason Donald. Brett Myers will be a free agent but guys like Carlos Carrasco and Kyle Drabek could very well be knocking at the door next fall.

All in all, its been a pretty solid off-season for the Phillies. They've kept the core together, vastly increased payroll, and not hamstrung themselves long-term. So far, so good.

Revised Off-Season Grade for Rube

Last week I blithely gave Rube a C- so far for his off-season efforts to improve the Phillies roster. However, much has changed since that grading. Perhaps Rube is an ardent reader (doubtful) and perhaps he is finally able to show all of us what was reputed to be his strength all along...contracts and negotiation. He has been able to lock up two keys in our World Series victory by signing both RP Ryan Madson and SP Cole Hamels to separate 3 year deals. Madson will now make $12 million over the length of that contract and has given up two years of free agency for guaranteed money. Hamels gave the Phillies some level of cost certainty by forgoing the arbitration process and signing for $20.5 million over the next 3 seasons. Hamels will have one year of arbitration after this new contract expires but he has demonstrated a clear desire to stay in Philly and be part of a winning franchise. Rube was also able to avoid arbitration with Shane Victorino and Joe Blanton for $3.15 and $5.475 million respectively. All of these are good, fair deals that will help the Phillies compete for the next couple years. The Phillies have been able to guarantee a stable bullpen and have rewarded their young Ace for his monumental playoff performance.

That said, I hereby raise Rube's grade a whole letter from C- to B-. If Rube is able to win arbitration against Howard, and/or sign another big piece like a Ben Sheets, he will get another raise into the B+/A- range.

All in all a good week for Rube.

Howard's Millions

Is Ryan Howard worth $18 million a year? Honestly, is anyone worth $18 million a year? The answer to both questions is a resounding NO! The real question is this: Will Ryan Howard make $18 million in 2009? The answer to that question is far more uncertain. Howard and the Phillies Front Office exchange arbitration numbers today and to nobody's surprise, Howard requested a ridiculous amount of money despite continuing his decline from his monumental 2006 MVP campaign. About the only thing Howard did as well as in 2007 is hit HRs and drive men in. In every other aspect of the game from batting average to defense at first base, Howard got worse. The question now is whether or not his decline is worth either an 80% pay raise or only a 40% raise.

Its looking more and more as if Ryan Howard will never sign a long-term deal with the Philadelphia Phillies. The recent signings of core players like SP Cole Hamels and RP Ryan Madson merely reinforces this belief. The Phillies don't see Howard as deserving of AROD money or even Jeter money and Howard won't accept anything less than that. Because of this impasse, Howard will almost certainly not finish out his arbitration years in Philadelphia. If the Phillies are able to succeed in winning this year's arbitration hearing, Howard could very well be here a couple more years as he will still be somewhat affordable. If the Phillies are forced to payout $18 million this year and God knows how much in 2010 (maybe $22 million?) then Howard will soon find himself in a new city wearing a different uniform. As Howard is one of the most prodigious sluggers to ever wear red pinstripes, this will be ashame. However, there is almost no way the Phillies would be willing to resign him for that type of money, especially when almost every metric shows that Howard either is or soon will be entering the decline phase of his career.

Ryan Howard has the misfortune of getting off to a late start for a variety of reasons. The biggest reason of course being veteran Jim Thome blocking him at 1B for almost a 1.5 seasons. As a college draft pick, he also got off to a late start. Thus, he is entering his Age 29 season and has yet to see Free Agency and won't see it till the ripe old age of 32. That being said, I cannot pass judgment on or blame a guy in his position for trying to make as much money as he possibly can in what will likely be a short career.

The bottom line is that Ryan Howard and the Phillies Front Office have goals that cannot and will not co-exist and because of this conflict, Howard will be gone at some point in the next few years. My gut tells me that Howard overreached in his request for $18 million and that he will likely "lose" his arbitration hearing. The silver lining for Howard is that by "losing" he will still get a 40% raise over last year. We should all be so lucky.

Oh...and one final thing: WORLD FVCKING CHAMPIONS!!!

Some Thoughts On Raul Ibanez

Now that the dust has settled a bit after the Phillies somewhat surprising acquisition of another left-handed bat in LF Raul Ibanez, we can step back from the ledge and look at this deal with a little bit more clarity. It's beginning to be clear that the Phillies simply weren't interested in bring back long-time Phillie Pat Burrell. As Burrell was apparently not an option, the list of acceptable LF options was quite slim. Out of the players available (Manny Ramirez, Adam Dunn, Raul Ibanez, Bobby Abreu, Ken Griffey Jr, Garret Anderson, Juan Rivera), Ibanez was definitely near the top of the list just after Manny. Raul has his downsides and they appear to be vast on paper. He's 36 going on 37, below average defensively and he doesn't hit leftys very well if you look at his career numbers. However, he hits for good average, hits over .300 for his career with runners in scoring position, crushes rightys and he has been very durable over the past several years. Defensively, switching from Burrell to Ibanez is a wash. Neither is gonna be lugging home a Gold Glove anytime soon. Ibanez hits for slightly less power but higher average than Pat and he's gonna strike out a bit less. With Utley, Howard, and Werth already in our lineup, Burrell's power won't be missed nearly as much as we all fear. Having a good, high-average bat in the middle of the lineup could actually dramatically increase our offensive performance. Think of it as switching from a V8 that tends to stall out every so often to a much more reliable V6 that chugs along day after day. Ibanez and his higher batting average could be just the thing our offense has been looking for. It all depends on where he bats in the lineup. I've had this discussion several times over the past week or so and I've thrown out all sorts of wacky lineups that manage to avoid the much feared Utley/Howard/Ibanez lefty trifecta at the heart of the lineup. As fun as it would be to do that, there are easy solutions that avoid it. We could use either of the following lineups:

SS Jimmy Rollins
RF Jayson Werth
2B Chase Utley
1B Ryan Howard
CF Shane Victorino
LF Raul Ibanez
3B Pedro Feliz
C Carlos Ruiz

OR

SS Jimmy Rollins
CF Shane Victorino
2B Chase Utley
1B Ryan Howard
RF Jayson Werth
LF Raul Ibanez
3B Pedro Feliz
C Carlos Ruiz

Both of the above lineups avoid the dreaded TRI-LOOGY scenario and both offer their advantages. Both Werth and Victorino had coming out parties in 2008 that proved conclusively that they are great complimentary players to have on a team. Both have very good speed and both are tough outs at the plate. Vic offers blazing speed and an ability to turn a single or a walk into a double with his legs. Vic led the team in batting average and showed good power numbers for a centerfielder. Granted he's not your prototypical # 5 hitter but he could serve as a plate setter for the bottom half of the lineup. Having him bat in front of Ibanez in the 6-hole could very well give Ibanez a ton of RBI opportunities. Putting Jayson Werth in the 5-hole is a more traditional approach. Werth has flashed some impressive power, particularly against left-handed pitching which he absolutely kills. He takes a lot of pitches, knows how to get on base and has gotten better every year he's been a regular. He has below-average power against right-handed pitching but he still gets on base at a very good clip because of his excellent pitch recognition (.360 OBP against rightys in 2008). Having Werth in the 5-hole allows Victorino to stay at the top of the lineup acting as a second leadoff guy behind SS Jimmy Rollins. Either way, its not as bad a situation as it appears to be at first glance.

Another thought to consider when looking at Ibanez's 3 year contract is the imminent arrival of some potentially very good right-handed bats to balance the lineup in 2010 and 2011. Hopefully, both Jason Donald and Lou Marson will be regulars at 3B and C respectively and will provide for a very balanced lineup from 1-8. Donald has gotten a good number of reps at 3B in the Arizona Fall League and he is almost certain to get a good amount of time at that position next year as they prep him to take over for Pedro Feliz at the hot corner. C Lou Marson shot up the prospect lists with another huge step forward in 2008. Marson doesn't show any real power at the plate but he possesses excellent strike-zone recognition and he get's on-base at a very impressive pace. Between the two of them, the Phillies will have less issues from the right side of the plate than most people think.

Other than the apparent lefty-heavy lineup, the greatest argument against the signing is his advanced age of 36 (37 in June 2009) and the length of his contract (signed through Age 39). Ibanez has been a very late bloomer and he has shown remarkable consistency throughout his mid-30's. So far, he hasn't shown any signs of decline. However, when a decline does come, it usually comes fast and we shouldn't be too surprised if Ibanez is ineffective or needs to be platooned for the final year of this deal. However, considering his contract is not too onerous at just over $10 million per year, it won't be worse or even comparable to the dead money invested in guys like Adam Eaton or Geoff Jenkins this upcoming season. It won't hamstring us too greatly from signing players that need to be signed or in locking up guys like Ryan Howard and Cole Hamels in long-term deals.

So, in closing, I will go out on a long, thin limb and boldly predict that Raul Ibanez will have a better 2009 and 2010 than Pat Burrell. I will gladly revisit this comment this time next year but I highly doubt I will be wrong. Personally, I think Raul Ibanez could very well be exactly what our lineup needs and I think all those that criticized this signing will look quite silly for the next couple seasons.

That's Lowetastic?

Feel that warmth? That's the hot stove finally kicking on after a long cold month of nothingness. The Phillies are rumored to have made a respectable contract offer to Type A free agent pitcher Derek Lowe. The Phillies have long coveted Derek Lowe and his extreme sinking fastball having previously made a run at signing him after the 2004 season. Lowe has been the definition of consistency since signing with the Dodgers before the 2005 season averaging 34 starts a season in his four years there. Going back to his Boston days, Lowe has started no fewer than 32 games and pitched no less than 182 innings in his past seven seasons. Lowe would be a perfect #2 pitcher behind Ace Cole Hamels and would transform an already good Phillies staff. He would also mean the end of Jamie Moyer's tenure in Philadelphia. Moyer leaving might not be the worst thing in the world considering his age and probable cost next year in his Age 46 season. Lowe will be a youthful 36 next year and still in his prime.

As the offseason started, Lowe was rumored to be looking for a 5 year deal averaging $14-15 million a season for a total contract around the $75 million mark. The Phillies are rumored to have offered a 3 year, $42 million deal according to Foxsports Ken Rosenthal. With the Mets, Yankees, and Red Sox interested in Lowe among others, it is clear that this initial offer won't get it done. While its likely that Lowe won't get his coveted 5th year from any team, he will get a 4 year deal from someone. At the end of the day, I'm gonna go out on a limb and guess he gets something like 4 years, $60-65 million with a possible club option for a 5th year. That's probably his best case scenario considering the economy and his age. Everything depends on what happens with SP CC Sabathia and SS AJ Burnett. If Sabathia ends up with the Yankees (something that looks less likely by the day unfortunately) that would likely make them less interested in pursuing Derek Lowe. If CC Sabathia goes to the Giants or Angels as rumored, then Hal & Hank Steinbrenner might personally drive the dumptruck of cash up to Lowe's house and there will be nothing the Phillies or any other team will be able to do at that point.

Things To Consider:

1. Lowe's Home/Road splits show that he is not nearly as dominant as he appears to be from playing half his games in spacious Dodger stadium. Here are his ERA splits from his time in LA.

YEAR......HOME..........ROAD
2008 -......2.30..............4.42
2007 -......3.51...............4.19
2006 -......3.18...............4.13
2005 -......3.74...............3.48

While his numbers were very good in 2005, his last three seasons show that he is not quite as dominant as he appears to be. Still, its important to consider that he is an extreme groundball pitcher and his style of play is perfectly suited to Citizens Bank Park.

Speaking of his groundball/flyball ratios, here's a rundown of those numbers for the same four seasons.

YEAR.........GB..........FB..........G/F
2008..........390.........150........2.60
2007..........398.........115.........3.46
2006..........487.........122.........3.99
2005..........447.........260.........2.92

Its troubling that 2008 was by far his worst G/F ratio of his career. Still, his 2.60 ratio is one of the best in all of baseball coming in 2nd among NL starters behind Brandon Webb.

One of the reasons Derek Lowe has been so successful since moving to the National League is his ability to keep men off base. He has been among league leaders in Walks + Hits per Innings Pitched (WHIP) in each of the past four seasons:

YEAR...........WHIP
2008.............1.113 (3rd in NL)
2007.............1.269 (12th in NL)
2006.............1.266 (12th in NL)
2005.............1.252 (17th in NL)

All in all, Derek Lowe is not an Ace pitcher. He is a very good pitcher who was miscast in that role while a member of the Dodgers. In the Phillies rotation, he would be a very solid #2 guy and his presence would have a ripple effect on the rest of the rotation and bullpen. He would create better matchups for Myers and Blanton behind him and he would help keep the bullpen well rested. The odds of him signing in Philadelphia are remote at best. He wants to go back to Boston who do not appear too too interested in him. The Yankees are a good possibility as are the Mets. Both have new stadiums, vast amounts of available cash, and a more glaring need than the 2008 World Champs. Still the Hot Stove is about what could be, not what will be and this is as good a topic as any to write about.

If the Phillies are able to sign Lowe to a 4 year deal I, for one, will be very happy with the move and might even get over losing Pat Burrell and Jamie Moyer (who likely wouldn't be back if they bring in Lowe).

All Quiet On The Free Agent Front...

Free Agency is now 19 hours old and there is absolutely nothing to report for the Phillies. The Phillies are not expected to be involved in any of the 1st Tier free agents anyway and there has been a Kremlin-like silence from newly appointed GM Ruben Amaro Jr. so far. The Phillies have supposedly alreadly made one attempt to resign LF Pat Burrell just after the season ended. They are also supposedly in serious talks with free agent SP Jamie Moyer. Moyer, coming off of an impressive season in which he had a sub 4.00 ERA and led the team in wins at age 45, is looking for at least a 2 year deal. Shooting from the hip, I'll predict that Moyer signs a 2 year, $14-16 million with a good number of incentives based off innings pitched. Worst case is Moyer completely hits the wall in 09 and we simply have a very expensive 2nd pitching coach. Odds, and any rational statistical analysis, point to Jamie having a decent season in 09 and a further drop-off at age 47 in 2010. Still, considering we got him for free, he'll be worth whatever they end up paying him. Jamie might not have an ERA in the 3.00s again but he's still a very capable starter. Burrell is more of a long-shot to resign but I still see it happening. There hasn't been any buzz whatsoever on Burrell so far. He's a liability defensively and he doesn't like to DH so that limits his options considerably. He's likely a 2nd tier free agent and that will also hurt his marketability during an off-season where the national economic downturn will affect such signings. His best fit is in Philly and both he and the Front Office will likely eventually figure that out. My guess is somewhere around 3 years, $40 million. It could very well end up lower than that in the end if the market for aging LFs really drys up. The Phillies are also rumored to be looking for some cheap bullpen help, so we should expect them to sign some low key veteran relievers to take over the long reliever roles. The key parts of the 'pen are already in place so there won't be any big waves made. The bench is more likely to receive reinforcement internally from prospects like C Lou Marson and SS Jason Donald so I wouldn't expect any major signings in that department either. The Phillies could still stun us with another major Winter trade to fill their LF hole but its a longshot at this point.

Yeah, its a boring off-season so far but we did just win the World Series so I can't complain too much.

Thoughts On The Off-Season

Well, now that we got that pesky World Series thing out of the way, its time to look at the Phillies issues and concerns going into the 2009 season.

Key Free Agents:

LF Pat Burrell - Will Pat resign with Philly? Does the team want him back? I think both questions can have a "Yes" answer but it will come down to what Pat's demands are. If Pat asks for 4 years, $10-15 million per year, then I don't see him back. If he asks for half that (i.e. 2 years, $10 million per, that could happen. Burrell loves playing in Philly. He's never played anywhere else and Citizen's Bank Park benefits Pat both defensively and offensively. Like Manny in Boston, Pat is uniquely suited to playing LF in Philadelphia. Besides which, the fans have finally come around on Pat and he is one of the most respected players on the team.

SP Jamie Moyer - Is this it for the old man? I made a prediction that Jamie would retire if and when the Phillies won the World Series. One of the few things lacking on Jamie's resume was a World Series ring and he took care of that in fine fashion this week. Moyer is 45 going on 46 and he just finished up one of the best seasons ever for a pitcher that age. For a non-knuckler, it could arguably be the best season outside of a Nolan Ryan/Satchel Paige effort. Jamie has made some waves about coming back next year but he is technically not under contract anymore. If he plays next year, it will almost certainly be in Philly. He'd probably cost somewhere in the $5 million range and that is eminently reasonable in a world where Adam Eaton and Carlos Silva both make that much or more. He led the team in wins and had a very respectable ERA at age 45. There is no reason to expect he can't do the same next season. Even if he can't perform on the field, his presence on the pitching staff is invaluable. I say push to bring him back.

Arbitration:

1B Ryan Howard - Howard is, of course, arbitration eligible again. Last season he asked for $10 million and we offered around $6 million. Ryan shattered the old record with his win in arbitration and then promptly went out and hit 48 HRs and drove in over 140 RBIs. Granted his batting average was a little low and he still struck out a ton, but there is no denying that he earned his salary this year. That said, he's likely gonna want another good raise. Consider that Detroit 1B Miguel Cabrera just signed a long-term deal that averaged $18 million per season. Howard and his agent will likely use that as the basis for any contract or arbitration discussion. So figure on Howard asking for $18 million and the Phillies offering $12-14 million. I predict another Phillies loss in that situation. Howard may very well have a 2nd MVP trophy on his mantle by any potential arbitration hearing too. That will definitely color and arbiter's decision. The Phillies will pull out his defense, strikeout totals, average against lefties, etc etc. Howard will simply point at his Rookie of the Year, 2 MVPs and World Series ring. Who do you think comes out on top?

SP Cole Hamels - So yeah, Hamels is gonna make a killing in arbitration and the next General Manager would be better off simply bending over now and taking it from Cole's agent. You have the best young lefty in the game coming off a season in which he led his team to their first World Series victory in 28 years. A World Series and playoffs in which he was an MVP twice over. Hamels went from a "Good Young Pitcher" to "Clutch Ace Pitcher" in three and a half weeks of October baseball. The Phillies should (and likely will) open the vault door for him. I predict a monster deal that averages $15-20 million over 5-6 years at a minimum. Cole is truly a special player and the type of player you lock up.

SP Joe Blanton - The Phillies seemed to pay a steep price tradewise for the surprisingly young (just 27) Joe Blanton. What most Phans ignored was that Joe was indeed a young player. I, for one, supported the Blanton trade from the start and I was not disappointed by his effort as a Phillie. He's still undefeated as a Starter in the NL and apparently he's not half bad with the lumber either. Expect the Bulldog to pocket something in the $5-8 million range this winter in arbitration. He's a very solid #4 starter and he's worth every penny. At his best he can shut down the opposing team (See Game 4), at his worst he eats innings and keeps his team in it usually. He even seems to like playing in Philly so you have that as well.

CF Shane Victorino - Vic is making close to the league minimum right now and he will easily become a millionaire at the arbitration table. I predict that Vic and the Front Office will come to terms before arbitration though. Vic really blossomed as a full-time player this season despite switching positions. He led the team in batting average and continued to swipe bases. Despite the ocasional bonehead play, Vic played hard for the entire season and provided the team with an important sparkplug. His 13 RBIs in the playoffs were a team record. I see the Phillies trying to lock Vic up through his arbitration years. He's a very good young player who compliments this lineup perfectly.

RF Jayson Werth - Jayson proved that he is more than a platoon player this season. He was healthy for the first time in his career and his power and on-base numbers soared as a result. He also showed great speed in the outfield and on the bases as well as a plus arm. Jayson will also get a good raise this winter.

RP Ryan Madson & Chad Durbin - Both provided key anchors to the best bullpen in baseball and both will be brought back. Madson transformed himself from a decent middle reliever to an elite setup man courtesy of a new workout regimen due to Jamie Moyer's influence. Durbin carried the bullpen in his middle relief role for the first 4.5 months. Both will be back and both will be more expensive.

UT Greg Dobbs, UT Eric Bruntlett, & RP Clay Condrey - Of the three I see Dobbs back in his 3B platoon/pitch-hit extraordinaire role but I wonder about Bruntlett and Condrey. Both are eminently replacable. SS Jason Donald will be pushing Bruntlett for a roster spot come spring and Condrey will have to fight for the final bullpen spot. Dobbs will get a decent but not huge raise but the other two will not get much of anything.

Spare Parts:

SP Adam Eaton - We're lucky in the fact that Adam will make around $8 million no matter what happens next year. He'll also get a World Series ring somehow. Either way, he likely won't be back next year. They may give him a Spring Training invite but the smart move would be to eat it on his contract and simply outright release him. Eaton was a mistake signing. The Front Office knows it, the team knows it, we the fans know it and even Adam knows it. His performance, outside of a brief stretch of respectability in June, was atrocious.

SP Kyle Kendrick - Kyle's numbers screamed correction for 2008 and we were not let down. He declined in all aspects of the game and showed himself to be a very borderline major leaguer. He only has one decent pitch in his slider and the rest is a work in progress. If he ever learns to throw a changeup, he might have another shot at the Majors. Till then, he's AAA fodder. Considering some of the young pitching prospects currently in the system, Kendrick could soon find himself a career IronPig.

Likely Gone in 09:

RP Rudy Seanez, RP Clay Condrey, RP Les Walrond, RP Scott Eyre*, OF So Taguchi, OF Matt Stairs, C Chris Coste - Seanez, Condrey, and Walrond are all interchangeable parts. I see Walrond staying around as a AAA starter as he is more of a AAAA player at best. Eyre might cost too much to come back (see below). Taguchi didn't really contribute much of anything the entire year so there is no reason whatsoever to expect him back. He's also winding down as an MLBer. The same can be said for Stairs though he will be able to go out on his own terms. Stairs will play in 09 if he wants to. I predict a retirement (and free drinks at any Philly bar for the rest of his life) for Matt Stairs. He solidified himself in Phillies Lore with under two months of effort. Coste will likely get pushed out due to his increasing age and hotshot young catching prospect Lou Marson.

Newcomers for 09:

SP J.A. Happ, C Lou Marson, SS/UT Jason Donald, SP Carlos Carrasco.


My prediction is that guys like Eyre and Stairs MIGHT be back but I wouldn't count on it. Stairs could very well retire as he's already 40 and now is a World Series winner. Eyre provided a great effort down the stretch as the perfect LOOGY and compliment to premier lefty reliever J.C. Romero. To get him back we might have to pay more than we're willing to spend. Donald is currently working at several different IF positions in the Arizona Fall League and he has the range to play 2B, 3B, and SS in the majors. I predict he's in and Bruntlett is out. Carrasco will continue to complete his skills in AAA and will be the first guy called up in case of injury. Happ isn't so much of a newcomer as 2009 will technically be his 3rd season on the Phillies. However, he's still a rookie and he has proven that he has the stuff to be a decent starter for the Phillies. I see him winning the #5 spot out of Spring Training.