Victorino is just now entering his prime years at age 27. After three years of observation, we can confidently project what those years will look like. We should probably expect around a .290 batting average, .350 on base percentage, 15 HRs & 40 SB along with elite defense in centerfield. Those aren't Hall of Fame numbers by any means but they are very respectable from a guy that was essentially a scrapheap acquisition.
Looking at the numbers, you can see that Shane has steadily improved in his three full seasons as a starter.
2006: .287 AVG/.346 OBP/.414 SLG, 6 HR, 4 SB
2007: .281 AVG/.347 OBP/.423 SLG, 12 HR, 37 SB
2008: .293 AVG/.352 OBP/.447 SLG, 14 HR, 36 SB
You can easily see a slow but clear improvement in his overal numbers. This improvement becomes more evident when you look at secondary statistics like his BB/PA ratio, BB/SO, & Isolated Power numbers:
BB/PA
06 - 0.53
07 - 0.73
08 - 0.72
BB/SO
06 - 0.44
07 - 0.60
08 - 0.65
IsoP
06 - .128
07 - .143
08 - .154
We do have to consider that Victorino's Age 27 season could very well have been his career year but there are good indications that he will at least give the Phillies that level of performance for the next several years. The most likely scenario has the Phillies in control of an elite defender in centerfield who can get hot and carry the team for short stretches like he did in 2008. Victorino will never be a 3-hole hitter or a cleanup guy but he is essential to the success of the Phillies.
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