Tuesday, March 25, 2008

National League Predictions

NL West:

1. LA Dodgers: The Dodgers did little to improve this off-season. The key to this is that they didn't need to do much. Other than personality issues in the clubhouse, they were the best team in a tough division last year. Their young players will get better with more playing time and the addition of Andruw Jones will give them an outstanding defensive CF who's also capable of hitting 40+ HRs this year. Their pitching staff is solid and they have a HOF Manager in Joe Torre who will quell any clubhouse issues this year unlike Grady Little last year. 90+ Wins

2. Arizona Diamondbacks: Great pitching with the addition of Dan Haren from OAK and getting hopefully a healthy Randy Johnson back as a #3 guy. Like LA, their young players from last year will be a year older and their surprise run into the playoffs last year gave them a taste of how good they will be in the future. I expect a close race between LA and AZ this year for the division crown. 90+ Wins

3. Colorado Rockies: Awesome hitting led by 2nd year SS Troy Tulowitski, OF Matt Holliday, 3B Garrett Atkins, and 1B Todd Helton will keep them in most games. Their pitching was questionable last year outside of their once-in-a-lifetime September run and it has not improved this off-season. All those diehard Rockies fans from last October will be sorely disapointed by the 2008 version of the club. However they will be competitive in a very tough division. 85+ Wins

4. San Diego Padres: An excellent pitching staff that is anchored by Cy Young winner Jake Peavy and Chris Young will keep them in games and break up any long losing streaks. They still have decent hitting but simply not enough to compete in this division. You should still expect 80+ wins from this club though. 80+ wins

5. San Francisco Giants: Its a new era in San Fran and it won't be a pretty one...at least not this year. Many of their position players are too old and they don't have enough big bats to compete. Their young pitching is among the best in baseball and they will get baptism by fire this year. Their projected cleanup hitter is the late great Bengie Molina which should tell you something of their projected lineup. Aurilia, Durham, and Visquel also return in what likely will be their last seasons by the Bay. Hey at least they have a beautiful stadium. Projected record: 62-100

NL Central:

1. Chicago Cubs: The Cubs snuck into the playoffs in a very weak division last year and they have only gotten better this off-season with the acquisition of OF Fukodome, the latest import from Japan. The possible and much rumored about trade for All-star 2B Brian Roberts from BAL will only strengthen an already very solid lineup. Their pitching is good but not great but it is easily good enough in this division. Expect 85-88 wins and a division crown.

2. Milwaukee Brewers: "Mil a Wau Kee" or "The Good Land" is the only major American city to elect three socialist mayors. An excellent, and very young, lineup is anchored by 1B Prince Fielder, SS JJ Hardy and new minted LF Ryan Braun who is making the transition from the Hot Corner to the much easier defensively 7 spot. This will automatically make their infield defense better and give them 40+ HRs from both LF and 1B. The rest of their lineup is solid and their pitching is decent. They should compete with the Cubs for the Division for much of the year. If Ben Sheets is able to stay healthy and actually make 34 starts and pitch 220+ innings, the Brewers will likely win the division. (Note: The last year Sheets had over 200 IP was 2004) If not, they simply don't have the pitching. 83-86 wins and 2nd in the division

3. Cincinnati Reds: The Reds are the hardest team to project in this division. They have the talent to compete and even win this division but lack the experience. A good pitching staff is anchored by Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo. Harang is perhaps one of the most underrated pitchers in baseball. The addition of sinkerball pitcher Josh Fogg and another year of experience for uber-prospect Homer Bailey should give them 4 good starters. Their projected lineup is solid. Griffey can still hack and Adam Dunn is a guarantee for 40HR/100RBI and the requisite 160 K to go with it. Ryan Freel needs to stay healthy and 1B prospect Joey Votto needs to grow up fast for the Reds to take the division. They will compete and several of their pitchers arms may fall off with Dusty Baker as their manager. 80-85 wins

4. Houston Astros: When your key addition is an aging SS who is promptly outted as a juicer the next day and Ed Wade is your new GM...its gonna be a long season. Mr. Wade, of Philadelphia fame, promptly traded away the entire farm system for Miguel Tejada. In his defense he may have been severely intoxicated at the time. So the Stros have no depth and a mediocre SS...and 5th OF Michael Bourn is their starting CF. Bourn...AKA Joey Gathright Version 2.0 is very fast and can probably steal 40 bases...that is if he can actually get on base 40 times in a season. Look for Roy Oswalt losing another year of his prime on a weak team and for Carlos Lee to grow fatter. OF Hunter Pence, who will now be a corner outfielder instead of in his natural position should have a solid sophomore campaign and Lance Berkman will be solid as well. 75 Wins...if everything goes right.

5. St. Louis Cardinals: Albert Pujols may need Tommy John surgery. That was the best news of the off-season for the Cardinals in what was a very long off season. Their major off-season acquisition was 4th Starter Kyle Lohse who will be good for eating innings and little else. Trading Rolen for Glaus is a wash and the little engine that could, David Eckstein, has joined his infield mate in Toronto. A full year of Rich Ankiel in CF should be interesting. He has power (and HGH) but still doesn't know how to hit a breaking ball. After hitting .328 in Aug, most pitchers adjusted to him last Sep after his hot start and he batted .261 with 22 K for in 111 AB for the month because of it. It will be long year that will only get longer if and when Pujols elbow blows out for good. 70 wins.

6. Pittsburgh Pirates: Why fix what isn't broke. No major additions outside of the front office almost guarantees the Pirates another losing season. They have several good players but no great players and not enough depth to compete even in the NL Central. 65-70 wins

NL East:

1. Philadelphia Phillies: It will be very close...very close for the Phillies to repeat as NL East champs. The acquisition of Johan Santana by the Mets was not the deathknell that many in Philly thought it to be. The Mets have just as many question marks as the Fightin' Phils. A truly outstanding lineup featuring 2 MVPs in Rollins and Howard along with the best 2B in baseball Chase Utley has not weakened one bit this off-season. The siging of Pedro Feliz will add another 25 HRs to the mix and moving Shane Victorino to CF will allow him to showcase his blazing speed and powerful arm. LF Pat Burrell is in a contract year and is always good for 30 HR/90 RBI and the RF platoon of Geoff Jenkins and Jason Werth should be solid. The pitching is questionable after Brett Myers and Cole Hamels but the Phillies lineup should score enough runs to keep them in almost every game. Look for a disappointing 2nd season for 1st year standout Kyle Kendrick but hopefully Jamie Moyer has just enough left in the tank and a combination of Adam Eaton and Kris Benson (when he's back healthy) will be just enough pitching to win another division. 90-95 wins

2. NY Mets: Johan Santana. The best pitcher in baseball is going to a pitchers park in Shea and much weaker NL lineups. If he stays healthy look for him to nab another Cy Young. However, after that, there are many question marks. The combination of 3B David Wright and SS Jose Reyes gives them the best left side of the infield in the National League and Beltran will be solid in the outfield. Delgado is a huge question to stay healthy and a combination of Pagan and Church at the outfield corners will make for a long season for Mets fans. The acquisition of Santana pushes Pedro Martinez to #2 in the rotation and will help keep him fresh. John Maine should have another solid season as well. It will be close between them and the Phillies. 90-95 wins.

3. Atlanta Braves: The Braves could easily win this division. They could easily finish 3rd as well. They have a very solid lineup and excellent pitching as always. If Smoltz, Hudson, Glavine, and Hampton all stay healthy, the Phillies and Mets may look up in the standings to see Atlanta leading the division. The odds of all 4 staying healthy is slim to none however. Their lineup features a good mix of veterans and young players. 3B Chipper Jones is quietly cementing a HOF career while RF Jeff Francouer is emerging as one of the best RFs in all of baseball. The addition of a full year of 1B Mark Teixera will give them enough offense to compete in this division. 85-90 wins.

4. Washington Nationals: They will enjoy their beautiful new stadium this year located along the picturesque Anacostia River in DC. Other than that, it will be a long season. They simply don't have enough hitting or pitching to compete in this division. 70 Wins

5. Florida Marlins: Well, the good news is that they have a new stadium deal in place with the city of Miami. The bad news is that they'll be lucky to average 10,000 fans this year as they have the least recognizable lineup in all of baseball. Their two remaining holdovers from the 2003 WS are gone with the trade of Cabrera/Willis to Detroit for a boatload of prospects. Expect a poor season from prospect Cameron Maybin if he is called up as he really needs another season in AAA but most likely won't get it in this organization. All-star SS Hanley Ramirez is the lone bright spot in this very very young team. There is much hope for the future though. 60-65 wins


Division Winners:

NL West: Dodgers
NL Central: Cubs
NL East: Phillies

Wildcard: Mets or Diamondbacks

Tomorrow: AL Predictions.

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