Wednesday, March 26, 2008

American League Predictions

AL West

1. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim: The Angels should easily win this division but it has nothing to do with them overpaying for Torii Hunter to roam CF for them. While signing Hunter was a good job of acknowledging that Gary Matthews Jr. was a mistake, he is not what will put them over the top. Their great pitching and excellent lineup (two things they already had in place) will be enough. A fearsome pitching staff led by John Lackey and Kelvim Escobar will only get better with another year of experience for Jered Weaver and the trade for former White Sox starter John Garland. 95 wins

2. Seattle Mariners: It may have taken 3 months but the Mariners are now the proud owners of premier left-handed pitcher Erik Bedard. While Bedard is a top starter he has never pitched over 200 innings and his durability will be a question all season long. However he does give the Mariners an excellent 1-2 punch at the top of their rotation along with Felix Hernandez. They won't hit enough to compete with the Angels but they will keep it interesting in the AL West for most of the season. 80 wins

3. Oakland Athletics: Moneyball is dead and along with any hope of the Athletics competing this season and probably in 2009 as well as they start to rebuild from a surprising run of near-excellence. Blanton and Harden remain of a once dominant rotation but there are far far too many huge questions in their lineup. Jack Cust will disappoint many in route to breaking the all-time strikeout record assuming the A's keep him in the lineup long enough to do so. 70 wins

4. Texas Rangers: Marlon Byrd is penciled in as their starting LF. That sentence will pretty much sum up the 2008 season for the Texas Rangers. 65-70 wins

AL Central:

1. Detroit Tigers: Barring a major string of injuries, the Tigers seem almost destined to win the AL Central and lead the entire American League this year. The addition of Miguel Cabrera and Edgar Renteria to an already potent lineup will make them an offensive juggernaut. There isn't one weakness in their starting 8. Their pitching is somewhat questionable. Bonderman had a horrible second half last year but it was revealed that he had suffered an elbow injury in early July and that should explain his dismal performance during the second half. Justin Verlander, Kenny Rogers, and Nate Robertson should all be solid and Dontrelle Willis will be a mystery. If he can regain his control, he could be the wildcard that gives Detroit a World Series title. If he doesn't he will soon see himself banished to the bullpen despite the $29 million extension he signed during the winter. 95-100 wins

2. Cleveland Indians: In 2006, everything that could go wrong for the Indians did go wrong. In 2007 the exact opposite happened. The Indians charged to a division title riding the arms of C.C. Sabathia and Fausto Carmona. They have a solid lineup that doesn't rely on any one player to hit for power and their pitching was excellent. They should challenge the Tigers again this year but their offense just doesn't have enough run-scoring ability to compete in a very tough division. 90-95 wins

3. Minnesota Twins: They traded away the best pitcher in baseball for some magic beans and with him any chance of making the playoffs this season. They should get a healthy Francisco Liriano at some point in April to soften the blow of Santana leaving but they also have to deal with the loss of innings eater Carlos Silva to the Mariners. Mauer, Morneau, and new acquisition Delmon Young should give contribute to a decent offense but the Twins simply have too many holes at key positions and not enough depth for 2008. 70-75 wins

4. Kansas City Royals: The Royals are headed in the right direction at least. Target good free agents and sign them while building depth in the draft. This same strategy transformed the Tigers from a 120 loss team into a World Series team in just a couple of years. Last year's signing of Gil Meche was an underrated signing and he gave the Royals an excellent season. This year's signing of Jose Guillen could be the same. Add in some good young players and the Royals may have something brewing. It's gonna be a couple of years at least though. 70-75 wins

5. Chicago White Sox: For the most part, the White Sox did very little to improve this off-season. They traded away Jon Garland which forces former prospect Gavin Floyd to be their 3rd starter and the rest of their lineup simply got older. They also nabbed Nick Swisher from the A's in a trade. But then they inexplicitly sent emerging star 3B Josh Fields to the minors and gave Joe Crede his job back. Their lineup consists of aging sluggers in Paul Konerko, Jim Thome, and Jermaine Dye, AJ Pierzynski catching and Orlando Cabrera at SS. Their pitching got worse and they have no depth to replace their veteran players. Its will be a very long year on the South Side. 65-70 wins

AL East:

1. New York Yankees: The Yankees wisely, for once, held onto their young pitchers and because of that will likely be the favorite in the AL East for years to come. Their lineup is explosive as always and they have the money to fill any holes if needed during the season. Look for a big season from starter Phillip Hughes and for Ian Kennedy to be solid as a 4th or 5th starter. They had one of the best records after the all-star break last year and there is no reason to suggest that with new manager Joe Girardi, that streak will not continue. 95-100 wins

2. Boston Redsox: The Redsox are the defending World Series champs which is both a good and bad thing for the 2008 season. They possess a solid veteran lineup but also get key contributions from young players such as CF Jacoby Ellsbury amd SP Clay Bucholtz. SP Jon Lester is another year removed from lymphoma and should be back up to full strength for the first time since his rookie campaign. This is a good thing as Curt Schilling will likely miss most of the season with a major shoulder injury. Dice-K and Josh Beckett, if healthy, will anchor one of the best rotations in baseball and their lineup should have at least one more good season left in the tank. A post WS victory swoon is a distinct possibility however and because of that they could easily miss the playoffs in a very tough AL race. 90-95 wins

3. Toronto Bluejays: Its all or nothing this year for the Blue Jays. If they do not at least compete in the AL East, there will likely be a major shakeup in their front office in the next offseason. The acquisitions of Scott Rolen and David Eckstein will provide them with experienced winners at two key positions and if everyone is able to stay healthy they have an excellent shot of finishing second in the AL East. Both Roy Halladay and AJ Burnett have to have career years for any of this to happen and the rest of the offense has to click. 85-90 wins

4. Tampa Bay Rays: They have more prospects and more young talent than any team in baseball, but they don't have any experience. Still, despite this, they should be able to be competitive and flirt with a .500 record in 08. 80 wins

5. Baltimore Orioles: The punching bag of the AL East will have a very long season as they go into full rebuilding mode. They will be lucky to win 60 games in 2008.


Division Winners:

AL West: LA Angels
AL Central: Detroit Tigers
AL East: NY Yankees

Wildcard: Cleveland or Boston

Darkhorse team: Toronto Bluejays.

No comments: