Why Giving Jamie Moyer A Multi-year Deal Is A Mistake

It started off as a casual conversation about the rumored ongoing negotiations between the Phillies Front Office and SP Jamie Moyer. Most Phillies fans have been clamoring to resign Moyer at any cost. "He's earned it" is the general consensus among even knowledgable fans. The current rumor mill has Moyer asking for a 2 year deal with a possible option year for a 3rd season. The Phillies are said to be offering a 1 year deal with a option for a 2nd season. Moyer turned 46 two weeks ago and there aren't alot of comparable 46 year old pitchers that have had good, or even passable seasons. Off the top of my head, I was able to throw out names like Phil Niekro, Charlie Hough, Satchel Paige, Tommy John, Nolan Ryan and even Hoyt Wilhelm. After a quick jaunt over to Wikipedia, I came up with guys like Jack Quinn, Nick Altrock and Jessie Orosco. Mind you, that's a list of guys that have even pitched a season at age 46, not pitched well. That said, lets look a bit closer at how some of these guys aged from 45 to 46 and even to 47 if they actually pitched at that age (very few did).

Phil Niekro - Niekro was a medical marvel and was amazing for his longevity. This longevity can be laid at his ability to throw knuckleball after knuckleball after knuckleball to opposing hitters. He was also able to put up a respectable line in his Age 46 season.

Age 45: 31 GS, 16-8, 215 IP, 3.09 ERA, 123 ERA+, 1.368 WHIP
Age 46: 33 GS, 16-12, 220 IP, 4.09 ERA, 98 ERA+, 1.468 WHIP
Age 47: 33 GS, 11-11, 210 IP, 4.32 ERA, 96 ERA+, 1.597 WHIP


Niekro was unique in his ability to put up league average seasons at Age 46 and Age 47. He is both a knuckleballer and a Hall of Famer. Moyer is neither of those things. Even with his efforts, there is a clearly discernable decline in Niekro's numbers, especially in his WHIP rate. Niekro was quite hittable in his final two seasons and this brought up his numbers significantly.

Charlie Hough - Hough is another knuckleballer who hung around into the early nineties by pitching for the expansion club Florida Marlins. Hough's claim to fame (and trivia question answer) will be his place as the starting pitcher for the Marlins inaugural home opener. I remember watching that game on television as it was the nationally televised game that week. That being said, Hough suffered a drastic decline in his numbers from Age 45 to Age 46 and he retired after his Age 46 season.

Age 45: 34 GS, 9-14, 204 IP, 4.27 ERA, 100 ERA+, 1.336 WHIP
Age 46: 21 GS, 5-9, 113 IP, 5.15 ERA, 84 ERA+, 1.496 WHIP

As you can see, Hough was done after his Age 45 season in 1993 and it was a huge mistake for him to come back in 1994 for another year. At the time of the strike, he had an ERA in the low 5's and was ineffective at best as a starter.

Satchel Paige - There are a few issues with including Satchel on this list. For one, no one has any idea what his true age was when he entered the Majors. Another issue is that he pitched mainly out of the bullpen despite a small number of spot starts. He is simply a unique player with no comparables. However, here's the breakdown of his numbers:

Age 45: 6 GS, 47 G, 12-10, 138 IP, 3.07 ERA, 127 ERA+, 1.254 WHIP
Age 46: 4 GS, 57 G, 3-9, 117 IP, 3.53 ERA, 119 ERA+, 1.304 WHIP

Paige also retired after his Age 46 season despite a short cameo at Age 58 where he pitched 3 innings for Kansas City in a start that was more publicity than anything else.

Tommy John - TJ is probably more well known to modern baseball fans for his association with the groundbreaking ligament-transplant surgery than his impressive pitching career. TJ pitched in the Majors from 1963-1989. Like most other aging pitchers, he suffered a drastic decline in his numbers from Age 45 to Age 46.

Age 45: 32 GS, 9-8, 176 IP, 4.49 ERA, 89 ERA+, 1.514 WHIP
Age 46: 10 GS, 2-7, 63 IP, 5.80 ERA, 66 ERA+, 1.712 WHIP

TJ was a non-factor in his final season. Considering his extremely high WHIP, his ERA is probably lower than it should be...this despite it being an Adam Eatonesque 5.80.

Nolan Ryan - Nolan is one of my favorite pitchers of all time. Simply put, no one could bring the heat like ol' Ryan. By bringing the heat, I mean his seeming nonchalance at beating Robin Ventura senseless (See Above Picture) when he was dumb enough to charge the mound against this ornery Texan. That said, Nolan was another pitcher who probably should have retired after his Age 45 season.

Age 45: 27 GS, 5-9, 157 IP, 3.72 ERA, 103 ERA+, 1.316 WHIP
Age 46: 13 GS, 5-5, 63 IP, 4.88 ERA, 85 ERA+, 1.417 WHIP

While Ryan's ERA+ was still a somewhat respectable 85, he struggled with injuries in his Age 46 season and was mainly ineffective because of this.

Hoyt Wilhelm - Who the hell is Hoyt Wilhelm? Yeah, that's gonna be alot of people's reactions unless they like obscure Hall of Fame knuckleball-throwing relievers. I remember him simply from his plaque in Cooperstown because of his odd name. Other than that, he was just another name to me. That said, he is on that short list of guys who pitched in the Majors at Age 46. Downside with Hoyt: He was a reliever.

Age 45: 72 G, 4-4, 93 IP, 1.73 ERA, 184 ERA+, 0.993 WHIP
Age 46: 52 G, 7-7, 78 IP, 2.19 ERA, 159 ERA+, 0.923 WHIP
Age 47: 53 G, 6-5, 82 IP, 3.40 ERA, 124 ERA+, 1.402 WHIP

Hoyt was very respectable as a reliever through his Age 47 season. He was also a reliever who relied on the knuckleball. Hoyt also pitched two more seasons retiring at the end of his Age 49 season. Though in those final two seasons, he only chipped in around 20 IP each year.

Out of those six pitchers, four retired after their Age 46 season (Hough, Paige, Ryan, John). Out of those four, only Paige had an above average season at Age 46 and he was a reliever. Phil Niekro and Hoyt Wilhelm both pitched in their Age 47 seasons. However, as I just mentioned, Wilhelm was a specialist reliever. Niekro was the only player mentioned that actually pitched primarily as a starter at Age 47. Niekro is unique in that respect. He even managed to post pretty respectable numbers at Age 47. He posted an ERA+ of 96 (100 is the equivalent of a league-average starter). Out of the four who retired at Age 46, Charlie Hough and Tommy John had ERAs well above 5 and Nolan Ryan came in with a 4.88 ERA. None of those four managed to pitch even close to 200 innings. In fact, Phil Niekro is the only guy in the history of baseball to pitch 200+ innings at Age 46 or Age 47.

What does all this mean? It means that the odds of Jamie Moyer having another above-average season at Age 46 are remote. He beat the odds at Age 45 posting very impressive numbers while he helped the Phillies win their first World Series in 28 years. However, the odds are stacked against him playing out a two-year deal with any level of respectability.

Its probably even money for Moyer to put up a league-average season next year. Niekro did it but then Niekro was a knuckleballer. Like Niekro, Moyer has a unique set of skills and that works in his favor. He doesn't rely on a blazing fastball like Nolan Ryan. He relies on pinpoint control, working the black and fooling young, aggressive hitters. He out thinks his opponent, he doesn't overpower them. If he can stay healthy and keep his stamina, he's got a shot. Staying in baseball shape at age 46 is very hard to do. If Moyer is able to do it, he will be on a very short list of players who have done so.

Player Spotlight - CF Shane Victorino

One of the key reasons the Phillies are World Champions is the emergence of CF Shane Victorino. Victorino, a Rule V pickup from the LA Dodgers, has emerged as one of the top centerfielders in baseball offensively and defensively. 2008 was a coming out year for the Flyin' Hawaiian. He is not an elite hitter but he combines great defense, timely hits, and spectacular speed to be one of those complimentary stars that are essential to championship clubs. Vic was recognized for his achievements by snagging his first Rawlings Gold Glove award and more importantly by snagging his first World Series ring.

Victorino is just now entering his prime years at age 27. After three years of observation, we can confidently project what those years will look like. We should probably expect around a .290 batting average, .350 on base percentage, 15 HRs & 40 SB along with elite defense in centerfield. Those aren't Hall of Fame numbers by any means but they are very respectable from a guy that was essentially a scrapheap acquisition.

Looking at the numbers, you can see that Shane has steadily improved in his three full seasons as a starter.

2006: .287 AVG/.346 OBP/.414 SLG, 6 HR, 4 SB
2007: .281 AVG/.347 OBP/.423 SLG, 12 HR, 37 SB
2008: .293 AVG/.352 OBP/.447 SLG, 14 HR, 36 SB

You can easily see a slow but clear improvement in his overal numbers. This improvement becomes more evident when you look at secondary statistics like his BB/PA ratio, BB/SO, & Isolated Power numbers:

BB/PA

06 - 0.53
07 - 0.73
08 - 0.72

BB/SO

06 - 0.44
07 - 0.60
08 - 0.65

IsoP

06 - .128
07 - .143
08 - .154

We do have to consider that Victorino's Age 27 season could very well have been his career year but there are good indications that he will at least give the Phillies that level of performance for the next several years. The most likely scenario has the Phillies in control of an elite defender in centerfield who can get hot and carry the team for short stretches like he did in 2008. Victorino will never be a 3-hole hitter or a cleanup guy but he is essential to the success of the Phillies.

Herniated Disc/Lower Back Surgery

And here's some info on Pedro Feliz and back injuries (Also from About.com):

Many patients with back pain, leg pain, or weakness of the lower extremity muscles are diagnosed with a herniated disc. When a disc herniation occurs, the cushion that sits between the spinal vertebra is pushed outside its normal position. A herniated disc would not be a problem if it weren't for the spinal nerves that are very close to the edge of these spinal discs.

What is the spinal disc?
The spinal disc is a soft cushion that sits between each vertabrae of the spine. This spinal disc becomes more rigid with age. In a young individual, the disc is soft and elastic, but like so many other structures in the body, the disc gradually looses its elasticity and is more vulnerable to injury. In fact, even in individuals as young as 30, MRIs show evidence of disc deterioration in about 30% of people.

What happens with a 'herniated disc'?
As the spinal disc becomes less elastic, it can rupture. When the disc ruptures, a portion of the spinal disc pushes outside its normal boundary--this is called a herniated disc. When a herniated disc bulges out from between the vertebrae, the spinal nerves and spinal cord can become pinched. There is normally a little extra space around the spinal cord and spinal nerves, but if enough of the herniated disc is pushed out of place, then these structures may be compressed.

What causes symptoms of a herniated disc?
When the herniated disc ruptures and pushes out, the nerves may become pinched. A herniated disc may occur suddenly in an event such as a fall or an accident, or may occur gradually with repetitive straining of the spine. Often people who experience a herniated disc already have spinal stenosis, a problem that causes narrowing of the space around the spinal cord and spinal nerves. When a herniated disc occurs, the space for the nerves is further diminished, and irritation of the nerve results.

What are the symptoms of a herniated disc?
When the spinal cord or spinal nerves become compressed, they don't work properly. This means that abnormal signals may get passed from the compressed nerves, or signals may not get passed at all. Common symptoms of a herniated disc include:

• Electric Shock Pain
  Pressure on the nerve can cause abnormal sensations, commonly experienced as electric shock pains. When the compression occurs in the cervical (neck) region, the shocks go down your arms, when the compression is in the lumbar (low back) region, the shocks go down your legs.

• Tingling & Numbness
  Patients often have abnormal sensations such as tingling, numbness, or pins and needles. These symptoms may be experienced in the same region as painful electric shock sensations.

• Muscle Weakness
  Because of the nerve irritation, signals from the brain may be interrupted causing muscle weakness. Nerve irritation can also be tested by examining reflexes.

• Bowel or Bladder Problems
  These symptoms are important because it may be a sign of cauda equina syndrome, a possible condition resulting from a herniated disc. This is a medical emergency, and your should see your doctor immediately if you have problems urinating, having bowel movements, or if you have numbness around your genitals.

All of these symptoms are due to the irritation of the nerve from the herniated disc. By interfering with the pathway by which signals are sent from your brain out to your extremities and back to the brain, all of these symptoms can be caused by a herniated disc pressing against the nerves.

How is the diagnosis of a herniated disc made?
Most often, your physician can make the diagnosis of a herniated disc by physical examination. By testing sensation, muscle strength, and reflexes, your physician can often establish the diagnosis of a herniated disc.

An MRI is commonly used to aid in making the diagnosis of a herniated disc. It is very important that patients understand that the MRI is only useful when used in conjunction with examination findings. It is normal for a MRI of the lumbar spine to have abnormalities, especially as people age. Patients in their 20s may begin to have signs of disc wear, and this type of wear would be expected on MRIs of patients in their 40s and 50s. This is the reason that your physician may not be concerned with some MRI findings noted by the radiologist.

Making the diagnosis of a herniated disc, and coming up with a treatment plan depends on the symptoms experienced by the patient, the physical examination findings, and the x-ray and MRI results. Only once this information is put together can a reasonable treatment plan be considered.

Treatment of a herniated disc depends on a number of factors including:

• Symptoms experienced by the patient
• Age of the patient
• Activity level of the patient
• Presence of worsening symptoms

Most often, treatments of a herniated disc begin conservatively, and become more aggressive if the symptoms persist. After diagnosing a herniated disc, treatment usually begins with:

• Rest & Activity Modification
  The first treatment is to rest and avoid activities that aggravate your symptoms. Many disc herniations will resolve is given time. In these cases, it is important to avoid activities that aggravate your symptoms.

• Ice & Heat Applications
  Ice and heat application can be extremely helpful in relieving the painful symptoms of a disc herniation. By helping to relax the muscles of the back, ice and heat applications can relieve muscle spasm and provide significant pain relief.

• Physical Therapy
  Physical therapy and lumbar stabilization exercises do not directly affect the herniated disc, but they can stabilize the lumbar spine muscles. This has an effect of decreasing the load experienced by the disc and vertebrae. Stronger, well balanced muscles help control the lumbar spine and minimize the risk or injury to the nerves and the disc.

• Anti-Inflammatory Medications
  Nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory medications (NSAIDs) are commonly prescribed, and often help relieve the pain associated with a disc herniation. By reducing inflammation, these medications can relieve some pressure on the compressed nerves. NSAIDs should be used under your doctor's supervision.

• Oral Steroid Medications
  Oral steroid medications can be very helpful in episodes of an acute (sudden) disc herniation. Medications used include Prednisone and Medrol. Like NSAIDs, these powerful anti-inflammatory medications reduce inflammation around the compressed nerves, thereby relieving symptoms.

• Other Medications
  Other medications often used include narcotic pain medications and muscle relaxers. Narcotic pain medications are useful for severe, short-term pain management. Unfortunately, these medication can make you drowsy and can be addictive. It is important to use these for only brief periods of time. Muscle relaxers are used to treat spasm of spinal muscles often seen with disc herniations. Often the muscle spasm is worse than the pain from the disc pressing on the nerves.

• Epidural Steroid Injections
  Injections of cortisone can be administered directly in the area of nerve compression. Like oral anti-inflammatory medications, the idea is to relieve the compression on the nerves. When the injection is used, the medication is delivered to the area of the disc herniation, rather than being taken orally and travelling throughout your body.

Is surgery necessary in the treatment of a disc herniation?
As mentioned, treatment of a disc herniation usually begins with the steps listed above. However, surgical treatment of a herniated disc may be recommended soon after the injury if there is a significant neurological deficit to your problem. Symptoms on pain and sensory abnormalities usually do not require immediate intervention, but patients who have significant weakness, any evidence of cauda equina syndrome, or a rapidly progressing problem may require more prompt surgical treatment.

Most often surgery is recommended if more conservative measures do not relieve your symptoms. Surgery is performed to remove the herniated disc, and free up space around the compressed nerve. Depending on the size and location of the herniated disc, and associated problems (such as spinal stenosis, arthritis, etc.), the surgery can be done by several techniques. In very straightforward cases, endoscopic or microscopic excision of the herniated disc may be possible. However, this is not always recommended, and in some cases, a more significant surgery may need to be performed.

A discectomy is a surgery done to remove a herniated disc from the spinal canal. When a disc herniation occurs, a fragment of the normal spinal disc is dislodged. This fragment may press against the spinal cord or the nerves that surround the spinal cord. This pressure causes the symptoms that are characteristic of herniated discs.

The surgical treatment of a herniated disc is to remove the fragment of spinal disc that is causing the pressure on the nerve. This procedure is called a discectomy. The traditional surgery is called an open discectomy. An open discectomy is a procedure where the surgeon uses a small incision and looks at the actual herniated disc in order to remove the disc and relieve the pressure on the nerve.

How is a discectomy performed?
A discectomy is performed under general anesthesia. The procedure takes about an hour, depending on the extent of the disc herniation, the size of the patient, and other factors. A discectomy is done with the patient lying face down, and the back pointing upwards.

In order to remove the fragment of herniated disc, your surgeon will make an incision over the center of your back. The incision is usually about 3 centimeters in length. Your surgeon then carefully dissects the muscles away from the bone of your spine. Using special instruments, your surgeon removes a small amount of bone and ligament from the back of the spine. This part of the procedure is called a laminotomy.

Once this bone and ligament is removed, your surgeon can see, and protect, the spinal nerves. Once the disc herniation is found, the herniated disc fragment is removed. Depending on the appearance and the condition of the remaining disc, more disc fragments may be removed in hopes of avoiding another fragment of disc from herniating in the future. Once the disc has been cleaned out from the area around the nerves, the incision is closed and a bandage is applied.

What is the recovery from a discectomy?
Patients often awaken from surgery with complete resolution of their leg pain; however, it is not unusual for these symptoms to take several weeks to slowly dissipate. Pain around the incision is common, but usually well controlled with oral pain medications. Patients often spend one night in the hospital, but are usually then discharged the following day. A lumbar corset brace may help with some symptoms of pain, but is not necessary in all cases.

Gentle activities are encouraged after surgery, such as sitting upright and walking. Patients must avoid lifting heavy objects, and should try not to bend or twist the back excessively. Patients should avoid strenuous activity or exercise until cleared by their doctor.

What are the potential complications of a discectomy?
The most common problem of a discectomy is that there is a chance that another fragment of disc will herniate and cause similar symptoms down the road. This is a so-called recurrent disc herniation, and the risk of this occurring is about 10-15%.

Most patients find relief of much, if not all, of their symptoms from a discectomy. However, the success of the procedure is about 85-90%, meaning that 10% of patients who undergo a discectomy will still have persistent symptoms. Patients who have symptoms for long periods of time, or severe neurologic deficits (such as significant weakness) are at higher risk of incomplete recovery.

Other risks of surgery include spinal fluid leaks, bleeding, and infection. All of these can usually be treated, but may require a longer hospitalization or additional surgery.

What is endoscopic microdiscectomy?
Newer techniques may allow your surgeon to perform a procedure called an endoscopic discectomy. In an endoscopic discectomy your surgeon uses special instruments and a camera to remove the herniated disc through very small incisions.

The endoscopic microdiscectomy is a procedure that accomplishes the same goal as a traditional open discectomy, removing the herniated disc, but uses a smaller incision. Instead of actually looking at the herniated disc fragment and removing it, your surgeon uses a small camera to find the fragment and special instruments to remove it. The procedure may not require general anesthesia, and is done through a smaller incision with less tissue dissection. Your surgeon uses x-ray and the camera to "see" where the disc herniation is, and special instruments to remove the fragment.

Endoscopic microdiscectomy is appropriate in some specific situations, but not in all. Many patients are better served with a traditional open discectomy. While the idea of a faster recovery is nice, it is more important that the surgery is properly performed. Therefore, if open discectomy is more appropriate in your situation, then the endoscopic procedure should not be done.

Hip Labrum Tear/Hip Arthroscopy

In case anyone was curious about Chase Utley's injury and possible treatment, here is some excellent info from About.com. Enjoy.

Hip arthroscopy is performed through small incisions using a camera to visualize the inside of a joint. Through several small incisions (about 1 centimeter each) your surgeon will insert a camera into one incision, and small instruments through the other incisions.

What is the benefit of hip arthroscopy compared to open surgery?
The nice part about hip arthroscopy is that it is much less invasive than traditional hip surgery. This means:

• Early rehab
• Accelerated rehab course
• Outpatient procedure
• Smaller incisions
• Early return to sport

What conditions can be treated with hip arthroscopy?

• Labral Tear
  The labrum of the hip is a cuff of thick tissue that surround the hip socket. The labrum helps to support the hip joint. When a labral tear of the hip occurs, a piece of this tissue can become pinched in the joint causing pain and catching sensations.

• Loose Bodies
  Loose bodies are pieces of cartilage that form within the joint. They look like small marbles floating within the joint space. These loose bodies can become caught within the hip during movements.

• Snapping Hip Syndrome
  Snapping hip syndrome has several causes, some of which can be treated with hip arthroscopy. If something is catching within the hip joint, hip arthroscopy can be used to relieve this snapping. Also, hip arthroscopy can be used to perform a psoas tendon release in cases of internal snapping hip syndrome.

• Cartilage Damage
  In patients with focal cartilage damage, meaning not widespread arthritis, hip arthroscopy may be helpful. These patients may sustain an injury causing a piece of cartilage to break away from the surface of the bone. These patients may benefit from removal of that piece of cartilage.

• Early Arthritis
  This is a controversial topic, as patients who have arthritis pain generally will not benefit from a hip arthroscopy. The patients who tend to benefit have specific finding of impingement (pinching) within the hip joint, and may benefit from removal of the bone spurs causing this impingement. This is only possible in the very early stages of arthritis, and even then may not offer relief of symptoms.

What are the possible complications from hip arthroscopy?
The most concerning complications of hip arthroscopy have to do with several important nerves and blood vessels that surround the joint. Nerve injury is uncommon, but can be a significant problem. The most commonly affected nerves include the sciatic nerve, the lateral femoral cutaneous nerve (sensation to the thigh), and the pudendal nerve. Injury to any of the nerves can cause pain and other problems.

Other possible complications from hip arthroscopy include potential injury to normal structures, infection, and continued pain after the surgery. The rate of these complications is low, but patients need to understand the potential prior to undergoing a hip arthroscopy.

All Quiet On The Free Agent Front...

Free Agency is now 19 hours old and there is absolutely nothing to report for the Phillies. The Phillies are not expected to be involved in any of the 1st Tier free agents anyway and there has been a Kremlin-like silence from newly appointed GM Ruben Amaro Jr. so far. The Phillies have supposedly alreadly made one attempt to resign LF Pat Burrell just after the season ended. They are also supposedly in serious talks with free agent SP Jamie Moyer. Moyer, coming off of an impressive season in which he had a sub 4.00 ERA and led the team in wins at age 45, is looking for at least a 2 year deal. Shooting from the hip, I'll predict that Moyer signs a 2 year, $14-16 million with a good number of incentives based off innings pitched. Worst case is Moyer completely hits the wall in 09 and we simply have a very expensive 2nd pitching coach. Odds, and any rational statistical analysis, point to Jamie having a decent season in 09 and a further drop-off at age 47 in 2010. Still, considering we got him for free, he'll be worth whatever they end up paying him. Jamie might not have an ERA in the 3.00s again but he's still a very capable starter. Burrell is more of a long-shot to resign but I still see it happening. There hasn't been any buzz whatsoever on Burrell so far. He's a liability defensively and he doesn't like to DH so that limits his options considerably. He's likely a 2nd tier free agent and that will also hurt his marketability during an off-season where the national economic downturn will affect such signings. His best fit is in Philly and both he and the Front Office will likely eventually figure that out. My guess is somewhere around 3 years, $40 million. It could very well end up lower than that in the end if the market for aging LFs really drys up. The Phillies are also rumored to be looking for some cheap bullpen help, so we should expect them to sign some low key veteran relievers to take over the long reliever roles. The key parts of the 'pen are already in place so there won't be any big waves made. The bench is more likely to receive reinforcement internally from prospects like C Lou Marson and SS Jason Donald so I wouldn't expect any major signings in that department either. The Phillies could still stun us with another major Winter trade to fill their LF hole but its a longshot at this point.

Yeah, its a boring off-season so far but we did just win the World Series so I can't complain too much.

That Gaping Hole In Left Field...What To Do?

The Phillies have had the luxury of having a former #1 overall pick entrenched in Left-field for the past nine seasons. Now that #1 pick is a free agent and the Phillies Front Office, under the direction of newly appointed General Manager Ruben Amaro Jr., has its first critical decision to make for the offseason. Since becoming the Phillies starting leftfielder in early 2000, Pat Burrell (pictured right) has been a bulwark for this Phillies team. While he never lived up to the hype and early hopes of his breakout 2002 effort (.282, 37 HR, 116 RBI at age 25), he provided a solid right handed bat in the lineup dominanted by lefties like Utley, Thome, Howard, and Abreu. Burrell was always good for 25-30 HR, 90-100 RBI, a .250-260 AVG, a high OBP, and an OPS+ around 120 every season. He did have his issues: poor range in LF, a horrid 2003 season, a sometimes overly patient approach at the plate, and a poor reputation. These detractors ignored that Pat was always the first to the ballpark on gamedays, has a very accurate arm, and was one of the hardest workers on the team. He is also considered a leader in the clubhouse even if he's never been vocal to the media following the team.

Last month, the Phillies won the 2008 World Series and they did so despite Pat Burrell's 1-14 effort at the plate in five games. Pat did have a huge double in Game 5 that set up the winning run for that clinching game but other than that he was a non-factor in the World Series. Immediately after that World Series victory, the Phillies reportedly offered Pat a 2 year, $22 million deal to remain in Philadelphia for his age 32 and age 33 seasons. This offer was reportedly immediately turned down by the Burrell camp. It is unclear whether or not Pat will be brought back at this point. The Phillies have refused to grant long-term contracts to declining veterans in the past and it is unlikely that they will offer anything more than a 3 year deal. Burrell will likely be offered more years and more money from one of the many teams needing a solid right-handed power bat in their lineup. So this leaves the Phillies with a quandary: What to do with leftfield.

So here are some options for them:

1. Make a Trade - The Phillies have the prospects and players to make a trade of a good outfielder who is a right-handd bat. They have been rumored to be highly interested in LF Matt Holliday of the Colorado Rockies. The price will be very high as Holliday is coming off of a huge season but it will also be a 1 year rental for the Phillies as Holliday is a free agent after 2009 and is also a Scott Boras client. The Phillies won't be able to resign Holliday for anything approaching his true value and honestly Holliday is somewhat a creation of Coors Field anyway. Away from Coors, Holliday's numbers do not even compare to his MVP like numbers at home. The Rockies are said to be highly interested in CF Shane Victorino in a possible trade but it would be a huge mistake for the Phillies to trade their youngest position player who is also just coming into his prime. Vic has been a sparkplug since coming to the Phillies via the Rule V draft and is also one of the few affordable players on their roster. The Phillies could also offer a package of prospects but it would likely take touted prospects C Lou Marson, SP Carlos Carrasco, SS Jason Donald and someone else to make the Rockies say yes. Trading away that amount of talent from a generally thin minor-league system would be a big mistake. So a trade of that magnitude would be a mistake.

2. Sign A Top OF Free Agent - There are several very good OFs on the market but most have issues for one reason or another. LF Manny Ramirez would be great but he is looking for, and will get, far more money than the Phillies could and would ever pay a 36 year old with a bad repuation for hardwork. He's already said to have a 2 year, $50+ million deal on the table for the Dodgers. LF Adam Dunn is also available but he bats lefthanded and wouldn't be a good fit for the Phillies lineup. He would also likely be prohibitably expensive. We could also look at a guy like OF Milton Bradley. Bradley had a great 2008 season for the Rangers but he comes with a ton of baggage, both from numerous injuries and a very bad clubhouse reputation. He might also want a multi-year deal. With his injury history (never played more than 141 games), he is far too risky to sign long-term.

3. Sign a 2nd Tier Free Agent - The Phillies could also sign a platoon mate for OF Geoff Jenkins and/or UT Greg Dobbs to handle leftfield until a better option arises in a year. There are several veterans out there that hit lefties quite well and would be decent options. Jerry Hairston Jr is coming off an excellent season in Cincinatti during which he hit well over .300 in around 280 AB. A guy like OF Juan Rivera of the Angels could also be a good fit. He was an up and coming right handed bat until he shattered his leg during the 2007 season. Since then he has been relegated to the bench by free agent signings Gary Matthews Jr and Torii Hunter. Still, he might be something to consider.

4. Re-sign Pat Burrell...And Damn the Cost - The Phillies could bite the bullet and give Pat whatever he wants, be it $15 million per season or a 4 year deal. This, of course, would be a huge mistake as Pat is already a guy who gets replaced for defense in any close game. Pat is 32 and in the decline phase of his career. It would also handcuff a team that already has too much money committed in long-term deals. The Phillies need to find ways to lock up Ace Cole Hamels and slugger Ryan Howard before they blow money on Pat Burrell.

5. Do Nothing - The Phillies could, and probably will, do absolutely nothing. They could use a platoon of Matt Stairs and Geoff Jenkins in LF. They could hope that prospect Greg Golson figures out how to hit a curve ball. They could easily rest on their laurels as they are coming off their first World Series victory in 28 years. They could easily cite salary constraints due to huge raises through arbitration to most of their core players prevented them from resigning Pat or any other big name free agent.