Monday, November 2, 2009

Weekend Wrap/Off-Season Thoughts

Well, we all knew that it wouldn't be easy. The Yankees are the most talented team in baseball and we knew it would take essentially perfect baseball to beat them. The Phillies simply haven't performed. They haven't made the spectacular defensive plays or the great clutch hits that they made last year. Hamels and Lidge have been decidedly human this post-season. Ruiz has made some questionable pitch selections and the big bats (other than Werth & Utley) have failed to show up. At this point, we're playing for respectability. If we can force a Game 6 or 7 we will at least have pushed a truly great team to the edge. We lose in 5 (my fear) and we will be looked at as a flash in the pan fluke team that got lucky last year and this year. That's not the truth but that's what will be said. This team has always played its best baseball with its backs against the wall. That Feliz HR last night was a great example of that. I really thought we were gonna win when that happened but it was all for naught.

Either way, its really hard for me to complain about back-to-back World Series appearances, two pennants and three straight Division titles. We've won a World Championship with this core and done what no other Phillies team has ever done in making it back the very next year. We have a great team coming back next year too so this is not a last gasp effort like 1983 or a fluke like 1993. We are a great team, the best the NL has to offer. We play great defense, hit for great power, steal bases and play a hard-nosed style of baseball. This series could easily have gone the other way. We were in Game 2 and Game 4. We very well could be up 3-1 ourselves had a couple key hits happened or key defensive plays. We could also very easily win 3 straight to win the Series. Yeah, there's probably like a 9% chance of it happening but with this team I could see it.

Going into next year, we have a lot of good things going for us:

1. Our entire core is coming back. The only free agents are Feliz, Stairs, Bruntlett, Myers, Pedro, Eyre & Park. None will be missed too much. Feliz can be replaced with a FA signing and relievers are fungible. Blanton is in his final year of arbitration so the Phillies might have to make a decision on whether to resign him or go after Pedro as the 3/4 starter. Odds are they'll go with Blanton as he's far less injury prone. He'll likely cost about $6-8 million for his final year with us which is pricey but less than we'd pay on the open market for a similar pitcher. We have $108 million committed to next year before arbitration raises. I figure our payroll will have a hard cap of no more than $140 million but likely closer to $130 million like it was this year (we came in at around $134 million when all was said and done with the Pedro signing and Lee trade). Our only major NEED is a legit 3B so we should be able to spend to fix that hole. The bullpen will get help from the minors as guys like Scott Mathieson, Antonio Bastardo and Kyle Kendrick likely take spots behind Lidge, Madson, & a hopefully healthy Romero.

2. We still got all the playoff revenue we could expect by playing 3 WS games at home. We'll have plenty of cash in the off-season that will see other teams make hard choices due to the economy. We should be able to seize that opportunity and retool for another run. While most teams will be making tough $$ decisions due to the continued bad economy, the Phillies will be one of the few with money to spend. Hopefully Rube is able to take advantage of this unique opportunity and get some guys at less than their market value. Rube knows he crapped the bed on our bench and I figure we'll target a good middle infielder to spell Utley/Rollins as well as a legit speedy OF bat. Francisco will be back as will Dobbs.

3. Hamels will be better next year and we'll have 2 Aces at the top of the rotation. Hamels had a terrible year (something I predicted) but he should bounce back next year. He'll be entering his prime at Age 26 and he should hopefully grow a pair and recommit himself to pitching. He could go the other way but I tend to doubt it. Everything that could go wrong for him in 2009 did. However, his peripherals stayed the same as 2008. There were no drops in K/9, BB/9 or other splits that would indicate a loss of skill. He actually improved his control surprisingly. He just had a lot of balls fall in and had issues finishing guys off (his 2 strike BAA went up about 40 points). I think those things will improve with the off-season. Lee will have pitched 270+ innings this year so hopefully he doesn't feel any afteraffects like Hamels did this year. Our rotation going into next year will likely be Lee, Hamels, Blanton, Happ and ??? (maybe Kendrick though Moyer will be in camp too).

4. We have a pretty strong Farm system and guys like Drabek, Taylor and Brown will be helping the 2nd half of next year. Lesser names like Mathieson and Bastardo will likely have spots in the BP and we just might see the 2nd coming of Kyle Kendrick in the rotation. We also have some other good arms in the system that should be ready for the bullpen if need be like Schwimmer and Rosenberg. That will help Rube avoid having to sign questionable relievers at overly expensive costs.

Within our own division, the Mets have a TON of question marks and their aging players will be another year older. They likely won't have money to spend again as they owe close to $50 million in the Madoff scheme and will be fighting a costly legal battle. Their GM is a moron so that also helps. The Braves should threaten again and their pitching is very good. I would expect a threat again. The Fish will probably trade Uggla this off-season and start Coglan at 2B. They will be young and dangerous once again but I doubt we will lose the division to them. The Nats are barely a AAA team so I'm not worried. Barring a slew of major injuries, we should be able to take the NL East for the 4th straight year in 2010.

No comments: