Predictions & Thoughts on the 09 Season in Philly

You see that picture to the right? That's the past. Its finished, its history. If the Phillies have that photo in their mind they will have a off year in 2009. If they can remember that while winning the World Series is the most difficult thing to do in baseball, repeating is even harder, they've got a shot. It hasn't been done by an NL team in over 30 years and honestly, the Phillies will have the odds stacked against them to do so again. Thanks the a huge increase in the budget, newly minted GM Ruben Amaro Jr was largely able to keep the Phillies core together. The only significant departure was long-time LF Pat Burrell. His replacement, LF Raul Ibanez, is the only major addition. The Phillies will have to rely on their core players to have better years to repeat as champions. No matter how the pundits and the Front Office try to spin it, losing a good RH bat in Burrell and replacing him with a LH bat like Ibanez will hurt this team in games throughout the year, especially in the later innings. That said, let's breakdown some of the good and bad news heading into 2009.

Good News:

1. No Career Years in 08 - Other than Victorino, none of the Phillies core players had what you could call a career year. Rollins and Utley were hampered by major injuries that sapped their production throughout most of the year. Ryan Howard had another off year, Burrell disappeared in the 2nd half and 3B and C were largely blackholes as far as offensive production was concerned. Rollins and Utley should both be much closer to their 2007 numbers and that can only help the team replace some of what was lost with Burrell heading to Tampa. Howard should hopefully build on his huge September and bounce back to somewhere between his 2006 MVP campaign and solid 2007 effort. If Howard can post an OPS+ in the 140-160 range again, the offense will be improved.

2. Depth in the System - For the first time in years, the Phillies have some actual (perceived anyway) depth in the minors. Guys like SP Carlos Carrasco, IF Jason Donald, and C Lou Marson could all conceivably see action in a Phillies uniform this year. All three are pretty much MLB ready prospects that could very well help the team stay competitive. All three will also likely be on the roster in 2010 at the latest.


Bad News:

1. Injuries - The Phillies were very lucky in that they didn't really lose anyone to injury last year. Other than RP Tom Gordon (remember him?), the only Phillie to go down for any significant time period was SS Jimmy Rollins and that was in April. Feliz missed a couple of weeks but otherwise, the Phillies were remarkably healthy. Odds are that isn't gonna happen again in 2009. The pitching staff all pitched a ton of innings thanks to pitching all the way till the end of October and guys like Hamels especially pitched far more innings than they had ever done so before. There will likely be more injuries and a hangover effect in the pitching staff because of this (See 2006 White Sox for an example).

2. Starting Rotation - Remember that great rotation that dominated the regular season and won in October based on its overwhelming talent? Yeah, me neither. Other than Cole Hamels, the Phillies have several 3 and 4 starters. Let's face it, Jamie Moyer will be 46 this year. The number of starters that were effective at that age can be counted on one hand. I posted an article about this very subject a few months back when I actually had the time to post my inane ramblings regularly. So we cannot expect another great year out of Jamie. Brett Myers, owner of the infamous 5-cent head, is a huge question mark as always. Logic tells us that he is in a contract year and will pitch as good as he ever has. Reality tells us that this is Brett Myers and we should never expect anything out of him. Mr. October Joe Blanton is another mystery. He honestly wasn't that good coming over from Oakland but he still managed to go undefeated in a Phillies uniform. He barely averaged 5 innings per start and he was not dominating by any means. His most impressive moment came at the plate against Edwin Jackson in the World Series. The 5th spot is still a toss-up between two fairly solid candidates in Chan Ho Park and J.A. Happ. I'd rather see the rookie Happ get the nod and push Park to long-relief out of the pen but I have a feeling that Park will start the season in the rotation after a very strong Spring. Either way, its not a huge issue for the team.

3. Bullpen - The odds of Lidge being perfect again are about the same as newly extended setup guy Ryan Madson throwing 97 mph all season long. Mark my words, Lidge will have a blown save by April 30th and the Philadelphia press will have a collective aneurysm the day it happens. Madson won't be the dominating force he was in Sept and Oct and will again be on the hot seat for the fickle fanbase. Romero is on a vacation until June 1st thanks to his "misunderstanding" of the MLB Steroid Policy and Scott Eyre will be the only lefty available which could hurt us during the first two months.


Overall, the Phillies seem poised to repeat as NL East champs for the 3rd straight season. None of their division rivals really improved all that much. The Mets still have huge question marks in the outfield, in their rotation, and at 2B. Despite the additions of JJ Putz and Francisco Rodriguez, the Mets are still not as good as the Phillies. The Fish are still a dangerous team that could have something special if they committed even a little bit of money to retaining their arbitration eligible players instead of trading them. They have a great rotation and some interesting pieces on offense but their defense and bullpen are a joke. The Braves have a good rotation (as usual) but not enough offense and the Nats will be lucky to win 70 games. The Phillies won't win 92 games again as the division has tightened up a bit from last year but I still like them to win the division. My educated guess is a win total in the 88-90 win range and that that will be enough to take the division again. At that point, its a crapshoot in the playoffs.

Other Predictions for 2009:

1. Cole Hamels - Will miss at least a month from injuries. He pitched a ton of innings in 08 and he's young. He has a bad history of injuries and I can't imagine him having 2 straight injury free years. My guess is he puts in something like 25-28 starts and 180 IP in 2009. I'll take it as long as he doesn't miss anything more than that.

2. Chase Utley - Will have a career year. Coming off major hip surgery, I expect Utley to have "that year". My guess is he puts it all together and posts ridiculous numbers in 2009. I'm talking something like .330 AVG, 35 HR, 120 RBI with gold-glove defense at 2B.

3. Jimmy Rollins - 3rd straight gold glove and a bounce back in his power numbers as he is fully healed from the ankle sprain that sapped his power swing.

4. Shane Victorino - 2 DL stints and numbers around what he posted in 2008 but lower overall totals due to time missed. I don't honestly expect him to be much better than he was last year. Still, he's a productive piece to have around and he's a great defensive CF.

5. Jayson Werth - You heard it here...Jayson Werth will hit 30 HRs in 2009. He'll also strike out 150 times and take a ton of pitches.

6. Raul Ibanez - Less than 20 HRs with a good average but lower than hoped for on-base skills.

7. Ryan Howard - 45 HR, .270 AVG, .375 OBP and a decrease in his strikeouts for the 3rd straight season. His defense will still suck and he'll always piss us all off by swinging weakly at balls well out of the zone from LHP.

8. Pedro Feliz - Will not be the regular 3B by the end of the year. His back will hamper him all year long but his glove will still be very good when he's healthy. My guess is an OBP under .300. Prove me wrong Pedro, prove me wrong!

9. Carlos Ruiz - Will get too much playing time. He'll get more playing time than his bat warrants as his defensive reputation will ensure he gets penciled in night after night.

So that's it for now...I'm going with 89 wins and another division crown.