Tuesday, May 6, 2008

The Maturation of Cole Hamels

Over the past three seasons, we have had the treat of watching a star pitcher slowly emerge in South Philly. The Phillies left-handed Ace Cole Hamels has managed to improve his numbers each season he has been in the Majors and appears to be on the verge of making a dominant run as a number one pitcher. Hamels broke into the Majors at the ripe age of 22 back in 2006 and he hasn't looked back since. He started 23 games in 2006 and posted a solid 9-8 record with a 4.08 ERA. He also struck out 145 in just 132.1 innings. He improved upon his 06 campaign last year by becoming the Phillies best pitcher with a 15-5 record, 177 Ks in 183 innings. While his K/9 rating went down, all the rest of his secondary numbers went up. He has continued this trend in his first 7 starts in 2008. While his record is a very average looking 3-3, his ERA has dropped again to 3.10.

Key Indicators to Consider when looking at Hamels stats:

Category #1: How hard is he working to get guys out?

Pitches per AB:

2006: 3.91
2007: 3.76
2008: 3.71

Trend: Improving

Pitches Per Inning:

2006: 16.5
2007: 15.2
2008: 14.9

Trend: Improving

Category #2: How are hitters performing against him?

Batting Average Against:

2006: .237
2007: .237
2008: .213

Trend: Improving

Slugging Against:

2006: .426
2007: .403
2008: .366

Trend: Improving

Category #3: How Efficient Has Hamels Been?

Pitches Per Game Started:

2006: 94.7
2007: 97.7
2008: 105.1

Trend: Improving

Innings Per Start:

2006: 5.74
2007: 6.55
2008: 7.05

Trend: Improving

Analysis: Basically, Cole has become a much more efficient pitcher from 06 to 08 and his statistics demonstrate an upward trend in several important categories. He is using less pitches to get guys out and to complete innings and because of this, he is pitching much deeper into games. He is also giving up less hits and baserunners than he did in 2006 and batters are hitting for less power. While his K/9 rate has declined from 9.86 in 06 to 7.48 this season, this is not a sign of decline, but rather a sign that he is becoming a smarter pitcher. He is no longer pitching for the strikeout but rather to get the batter out in the easiest and quickest way.

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